Antimony Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

• Global antimony prices surged spectacularly in Q2 2025, jumping 24.27% to USD 37.96/KG as the full impact of China's December 2024 export ban to the United States rippled through global trade flows. Prices then gradually cooled through H2 before stabilising around USD 34.83/KG in Q1 2026.
• North America emerged as the most expensive market in the world, peaking at USD 50.78/KG in Q3 2025. The US direct ban from China left buyers scrambling for third-country supply, mostly via transshipment through Thailand, Belgium, and Mexico, which added both friction and cost.
• Europe peaked earlier (Q2 2025 at USD 42.58/KG) and corrected faster, reflecting its ability to continue importing Chinese antimony via licensed exports when the US could not. By Q1 2026, Europe had settled to USD 34.12/KG, below its January 2025 starting point.
• North East Asia (primarily China) paradoxically saw the lowest prices globally throughout the year. With Chinese producers unable to export freely, inventories built domestically and Q4 2025 prices fell to USD 20.74/KG. Q1 2026 showed a modest 4.13% rebound.
• Antimony sits firmly on the US Geological Survey Critical Minerals List, with the US Department of Defense providing over USD 59 million in funding to Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold project in Idaho to rebuild a domestic US antimony supply chain.
• The antimony market forecast for 2026 remains structurally tight. Chinese export restrictions, defence spending-driven demand, and limited non-Chinese refining capacity all argue for prices staying well above the pre-2024 USD 15,000-18,000 per tonne baseline. Expect continued regional price dispersion with North America the most elevated.

What Is Antimony and Why Does It Matter?

Antimony (chemical symbol Sb, atomic number 51) is a silvery-white metalloid with properties that sit between metals and non-metals. It has been mined and used for over 5,000 years, going back to ancient pigments and alloys. Today it is one of the most strategically important minerals on earth, despite almost nobody outside mining and chemistry circles ever hearing about it.

The compound matters for three reasons that the average person underestimates until a supply crisis hits. First, flame retardants: antimony trioxide (Sb₂O₃) is the single most important synergist in halogenated flame retardant systems, used in plastics, textiles, electronics casings, and building materials. Without antimony, modern fire safety codes become very hard to meet. Second, lead-acid batteries: antimony alloys with lead to produce the hardened plates used in starter, lighting, and ignition (SLI) batteries for vehicles, forklifts, and backup power. Third, defence applications: antimony hardens the lead in ammunition, enables armour-piercing rounds, and is essential to night-vision optics, infrared sensors, and specialty explosives.

Then there is the emerging demand picture. Antimony trioxide is used as a fining agent and clarifier in solar glass manufacturing, a large and growing outlet. Semiconductor and thin-film photovoltaic applications are smaller but higher-margin. The combination of traditional flame retardant and battery demand with new solar and defence demand has created a structural pull that prior markets did not have.

Supply is heavily concentrated. USGS data shows China has historically produced around 48% of global antimony, with Tajikistan (about 26%), Burma (Myanmar), Russia, and Bolivia following. Global mine production in 2023 was around 83,000 tonnes. Only a handful of countries refine antimony at commercial scale, and before the 2024 Chinese export controls, Chinese refineries handled the lion's share of global metal and oxide flows.

This combination of concentrated supply, strategic demand, and policy weaponisation makes antimony pricing uniquely policy-sensitive. Every shift in Chinese export licensing, every US Department of Defense funding announcement, and every sanction evolution moves the market measurably.

Which Sectors Are Driving Antimony Demand?

Flame retardants: The single largest outlet for antimony, accounting for a meaningful share of global demand. Antimony trioxide is used as a synergist with halogenated flame retardants in ABS, PVC, polyesters, and polyurethane foams. Every modern TV cabinet, electronics housing, aircraft interior, and fire-retardant textile depends on it. US Consumer Product Safety Commission flammability standards and EU toy safety directives effectively mandate its use in many categories.

Lead-acid batteries: Lead-antimony alloy provides the grid structure in flooded lead-acid batteries used for vehicle starters, backup power, forklifts, and industrial equipment. Even as lithium-ion grows in automotive, the lead-acid battery market remains enormous, with global volumes in the billions of units annually per the International Lead Association. Secondary antimony (from recycled batteries) partly meets this demand.

Defence and aerospace: Military demand has become the fastest-growing segment, driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and broader NATO rearmament. Ammunition (hardened lead cores), armour-piercing projectiles, night-vision optics, infrared sensors, and specialty explosives all consume antimony. The US Department of Defense has flagged antimony as a strategic material, and the EU has included it in its Critical Raw Materials Act list.

Solar glass and photovoltaics: Antimony trioxide is used as a fining and clarifying agent in low-iron solar cover glass. As global solar installation continues to scale (per IEA and IRENA data), this segment has been pulling incremental tonnes. Small share, but the fastest-growing outlet outside defence.

Semiconductors and specialty electronics: Antimony is used as a dopant in certain semiconductor processes, in thin-film solar materials, and in some infrared detector systems. Very small tonnage but very high value per kilogram.

Global Antimony Price Trend in 2025

The 2025 antimony market was dominated by a single event: the full implementation of China's export restrictions. Announced by China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on 14 August 2024 and effective 15 September 2024, the controls required export licences for antimony ore, metal, oxide, and related gold-antimony smelting technology. Then in December 2024, China tightened this into an outright ban on antimony exports to the United States, citing dual-use concerns and national security.

Q1 2025 opened with the market already elevated from 2024 but still digesting the shape of the restrictions. Q2's 24.27% spike reflects the moment Chinese export permits started tightening materially and Western buyers realised that stockpiles would not last. Industry reporting from the Minor Metals Trade Association confirmed Chinese antimony export volumes to global markets dropped approximately 97% in the immediate aftermath of the September 2024 restrictions. Prices peaked in Q3 as the market absorbed the full disruption, then gradually softened through Q4 as alternative supply from Tajikistan, Myanmar, and recycled sources began filling gaps. Q1 2026 stabilisation at USD 34.83/KG is roughly double the pre-2024 baseline of around USD 15-18/KG, but well below the Q2 2025 peaks. The structural shift appears permanent.

European Antimony Price Trends in 2025

Europe had the second-highest antimony pricing globally in 2025 and was more volatile than any other tracked region in percentage terms. Prices opened at USD 35.32/KG in Q1, surged 20.54% to USD 42.58/KG in Q2, then corrected steadily through the rest of the year. By Q1 2026, Europe had settled to USD 34.12/KG, actually below where it started twelve months earlier.

Europe's pattern differs meaningfully from North America's. While China banned all antimony exports to the United States in December 2024, exports to Europe continued under licensed flows. The Netherlands became a key entry point for Chinese antimony into the EU market per World Economic Forum analysis, and Belgium remained a significant refining hub. This kept European supply better than North American supply, even if at elevated prices.

The European Commission formally included antimony on its 2023 Critical Raw Materials Act list, identifying it as both strategic and supply-risk-exposed. The EU Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) and Horizon Europe research frameworks have begun funding antimony supply chain diversification projects. Tajikistan has emerged as the most important alternative source, with a major mine operated by a joint venture including Tajik Aluminium and a Chinese partner supplying the European market. The Q2 spike reflected buyer panic and inventory building; the Q3-Q1 2026 decline reflects that licensed Chinese supply plus Tajik imports closed the gap faster in Europe than in the US.

North American Antimony Price Trends in 2025

North America bore the brunt of the 2025 antimony supply crisis. Prices jumped from USD 34.05/KG in Q1 to USD 45.06/KG in Q2 (+32.32%) and then kept climbing to USD 50.78/KG in Q3, the highest quarterly reading in our dataset. Q4 brought partial relief but Q1 2026 prices ticked back up to USD 48.76/KG, keeping North America the world's most expensive antimony market by a wide margin.

The US situation was uniquely difficult. Before 2024, USGS data shows the US imported around 63% of its total antimony metal and oxide from China. When China's December 2024 outright ban on US exports took effect, those channels closed completely. US importers pivoted to transshipment through third countries (Thailand, Mexico, Belgium, Vietnam) and to direct sourcing from Tajikistan, Bolivia, and Burma. Each of these routes added logistics cost, compliance burden, and execution risk, which is why North American prices stayed persistently elevated relative to Europe.

Policy response was substantial. The US Department of Defense expanded funding to Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold project in Idaho to over USD 59 million, positioning it as a potential domestic antimony source by the late 2020s. The US Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials office continued tapping its National Defense Stockpile. The Inflation Reduction Act and subsequent critical minerals initiatives created tax credits and grants for antimony supply diversification. Still, none of these measures can conjure mine or refining capacity overnight. The Q1 2026 uptick to USD 48.76/KG suggests US buyers are still structurally short, and the premium over Asia is likely to persist through 2026.

North East Asian Antimony Price Trends in 2025

North East Asia presented the counterintuitive story of the year. Despite China being the epicentre of the global antimony supply crisis, regional prices (primarily reflecting Chinese domestic spot pricing) were the lowest in the world throughout 2025 and showed a different pattern from Europe and North America. Prices rose modestly through Q2, then declined in Q3 and Q4 before a small Q1 2026 rebound.

The logic behind this pattern is straightforward once you understand Chinese export controls. When China restricts exports, the material does not disappear, it accumulates domestically. Chinese antimony smelters and trihydrate oxide producers kept running, but with export channels narrowed, domestic inventories built up. That inventory overhang pressured Chinese spot prices lower through the second half of 2025, even as Western prices stayed elevated. World Economic Forum analysis notes that China's own mine production has declined nearly 30% since 2018, and the country now imports over 65% of its antimony ore concentrate (more than a third of that from Tajikistan). So the Chinese domestic market is itself dependent on imports even as it exports refined products.

Hunan province is the traditional heart of Chinese antimony production, with major producers including Hunan Gold Group, Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star, and others. Environmental inspections and mine closures in 2023 had already reduced output meaningfully. Japanese and South Korean buyers, both heavily dependent on imported antimony, continued to source through established channels. Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) has funded antimony stockpile maintenance for strategic use. The Q4 2025 low of USD 20.74/KG reflects the extreme domestic inventory pressure in China; the Q1 2026 modest recovery suggests some rebalancing as stockpiles worked down.

What Factors Drove Antimony Costs in 2025?

• Chinese export controls: The dominant factor by a wide margin. China's Ministry of Commerce implemented export licensing requirements effective 15 September 2024, followed by the December 2024 outright ban on exports to the United States. Reporting from multiple trade publications tracked a 97% collapse in Chinese antimony export volumes to global markets in the immediate aftermath. Every other driver on this list is secondary to this policy shift.
• Defence spending surge: Global defence budgets rose meaningfully in 2025, with the EU announcing an EUR 800 billion defence fund, Germany committing USD 1 trillion in defence and infrastructure investments, and the US sustaining elevated procurement. Ammunition production, night-vision optics, and infrared sensor demand all pulled antimony. The correlation between geopolitical tensions and antimony pricing has tightened materially since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.
• Chinese domestic supply contraction: Separate from export policy, Chinese mine production declined roughly 30% since 2018 per industry tracking. Environmental inspections in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, mine accidents, and depletion of easier-to-access deposits all contributed. China now imports over 65% of its own antimony ore concentrate requirement, with Tajikistan, Myanmar, and Russia as main sources.
• Third-country sourcing evolution: Tajikistan emerged as the second-largest global producer with roughly 26% of mine output per USGS data. Myanmar, Bolivia, and Russia continued supplying, though Russian flows face sanctions-related complications. The joint venture between Tajik Aluminium and Chinese mining interests at key Tajik operations is a structural feature that ties even non-Chinese supply back to Chinese commercial relationships.
• Western critical minerals policy: The US Inflation Reduction Act, EU Critical Raw Materials Act, UK Critical Minerals Strategy, and equivalent Japanese and South Korean frameworks all now explicitly prioritise antimony supply chain resilience. US Department of Defense funding to Perpetua Resources (Idaho) exceeded USD 59 million by early 2025. These policies are beginning to shape investment but cannot replace volume on short timescales.
• Secondary (recycled) supply: The lead-acid battery recycling chain generates meaningful secondary antimony. USGS data notes that the bulk of secondary antimony is recovered at lead smelters as antimonial lead. This provides a buffer that has grown in importance as primary supply tightened, but it is still not large enough to offset the Chinese disruption.

Antimony Market Forecast for 2026

The antimony market forecast for 2026 is shaped entirely by whether and how much Chinese export licensing loosens versus tightens. The pre-2024 baseline of USD 15-18/KG is gone and not coming back in the near term. The question now is whether prices remain at early-2026 levels (around USD 35/KG globally) or trend back toward the 2025 peak of nearly USD 60/KG.

On the bull side, any further Chinese export tightening, ammunition-driven defence demand acceleration, Russia-related supply disruption, or Tajik production shortfall would move prices higher. On the bear side, Chinese domestic inventory destocking into global markets (as permitted), new Tajik and Bolivian capacity coming online, secondary (recycled) supply expansion, and Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold project advancing toward production in the late 2020s would weigh on prices.

Expected Antimony Price Range (2026):

Base case sees global averages in a USD 32 to USD 45/KG band through 2026, with the North American premium persisting at USD 10-15/KG above global on structural supply access issues. Chinese domestic pricing will stay the lowest tier globally until export flows normalise. Tail risk scenarios could push North American pricing back toward USD 60/KG if any further Chinese tightening occurs, or conversely to USD 35/KG if substantial export relaxation happens (unlikely in the current geopolitical climate).

Key Analyst Insights for the Antimony Market

Antimony is the template example of what happens when a strategically critical mineral meets geopolitical weaponisation of supply chains. The 2025 market offers a template for how other critical mineral disruptions could unfold. A few things worth tracking closely into 2026:

• Chinese MOFCOM export licensing decisions. Every adjustment, whether tightening or loosening, moves the market in hours rather than days.
• US Department of Defense critical minerals investments, particularly progress at Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold project toward production. First ore timing matters greatly for forward curves.
• Tajik production capacity expansion and the evolving joint venture dynamics between Tajik Aluminium and Chinese partners. This is now the most important non-Chinese supply source.
• EU Critical Raw Materials Act implementation, including the strategic projects designated under the Act for antimony supply diversification.
• Defence spending trajectories across NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Every additional round of ammunition produced draws on antimony inventory.
• Secondary antimony (recycled from lead-acid battery smelting) volumes, which become relatively more important as primary supply tightens.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Manufacturers

For Buyers

• Build origin transparency into procurement. If you buy antimony trioxide from a European refiner that ultimately sources Chinese ore via Southeast Asian intermediaries, you still have Chinese supply chain exposure. Trace every link.
• Diversify across Tajikistan, Myanmar, Bolivia, and emerging sources. Tajikistan is the second-largest producer and is now the most important non-Chinese source. Commercial relationships with Tajik offtakers should be a priority for any serious antimony buyer.
• Price-adjustment clauses tied to regional benchmarks (Rotterdam, US CIF, Chinese domestic) are now essential. Flat-price contracts exposed buyers to painful losses in 2025. Reference-price formulas protect both sides.
• Engage with government incentive programmes. The US Inflation Reduction Act, EU Critical Raw Materials Act, and similar frameworks provide tax credits, grants, and loan guarantees for antimony sourcing from allied or domestic sources. Defence contractors in particular should audit their eligibility.
• Build strategic inventory. The days of just-in-time antimony procurement are over. Six to twelve months of forward coverage has become standard practice for defence-exposed manufacturers.

For Manufacturers and Producers

• Non-Chinese refining capacity is underutilised. Global ex-China refining capacity exceeds 60,000 tonnes per year per industry analysis, but much of it sits idle due to upstream concentrate shortages. Securing mine supply, not adding refining capacity, is the binding constraint.
• Secondary antimony recovery from lead-acid battery recycling is a meaningful margin opportunity. Lead smelters with integrated antimony recovery are better positioned than those that sell antimonial lead undifferentiated.
• Long-term offtake agreements with Western buyers (especially defence contractors) can now carry meaningful premiums and government-backed financing. This is a step-change from pre-2024 commercial terms.
• Substitution and thrifting have limits but are worth R&D investment. For flame retardants, hydrated aluminium oxide and organic compounds can partially substitute. For batteries, calcium-based alloys can replace lead-antimony in some applications. Any demand destruction that substitution achieves directly relieves supply pressure.