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propylene Price Forecast

Asia

TMT bar Forecast

Global

Magnesium Ingots Forecast

Global

caustic soda Forecast

USA

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Global

Crude Oil Forecast

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Price Trends:2022-2024

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2023

In 2023, the polypropylene (PP) market displayed a stark contrast to the record highs observed in 2022.

Throughout the year, prices experienced a consistent decline, exhibiting regional disparities and occasional fluctuations. The substantial decrease in the price of propylene, the principal raw material for PP, exerted notable downward pressure on overall PP prices.

2021

The year 2021 marked a significant escalation in polypropylene prices.

Oil prices then soared in 2021 and early 2022 due to the recovery in global demand and the Russia-Ukraine war. These oil price fluctuations caused polypropylene prices to be quite volatile throughout the period.

2020

The onset of 2020 witnessed an upward trajectory in prices attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing disruptions in the supply chain.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions to global supply chains, including those for polypropylene. This led to shortages of the material and higher prices.

2019

In 2019, polypropylene prices demonstrated stability. Oil prices were relatively stable, but they began to rise in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The forecast indicates that the increase in propylene prices, coupled with thedecreasing price gap compared to polypropylene, will likely dampen the demandfor propylene.

Simultaneously, certain propylene units plan to resume operations, suggesting limited potential for further upward movement in propylene prices, indicating a more robust pricing trend.

2024

In 2024, the shutdown of propylene units in the Shandong region resulted in a favorable supply situation, improving the market atmosphere

Downstream participants actively engaged, leading to a decrease in on-site inventory. Simultaneously, upstream players actively raised prices. This week, crude oil experienced fluctuations with minimal impact from the news.

2023

Propylene prices exhibited a more nuanced behavior in 2023

Certain months saw propylene prices hovering around the $850/ton mark, offering a semblance of predictability for manufacturers. 2023 wasn't a year of consistent decline, it offered glimpses of stability amidst the volatility, providing cautious optimism for the future.

2022

The year 2022 mirrored the trajectory of other oil-derived commodities

The Ukraine war and subsequent global energy crisis sent crude oil costs into overdrive, making propylene production significantly more expensive. This translated to record-breaking prices for consumers, particularly in the first half of the year.

2021

The arrival of COVID-19 in 2020 sent shockwaves through global supply chains, impacting propylene production and distribution

In 2021, propylene prices embarked on a volatile journey. Pent-up demand collided with ongoing supply chain disruptions, creating erratic pricing.

2020

The arrival of COVID-19 in 2020 sent shockwaves through global supply chains, impacting propylene production and distribution

While some sectors faced challenges, the surge in demand for essential goods like medical supplies and food packaging, both heavily reliant on propylene derivatives, propelled prices upwards.

2024

The primary TMT market faced challenges with subdued demand in Jan'24.

Additionally, the secondary TMT prices continued to decline, adding pressure on primary players. Despite expectations for further price reductions, primary mills chose to maintain stable offers.

Despite the ongoing economic slowdown and decreased prices, the Indian primary TMT market is expected to follow a positive trajectory according to forecasts.

The gap between primary and secondary markets is narrowing, and with a rising demand for primary materials, the market is poised for potential growth.

2023

Steel prices fell in Q1 FY2024 due to falling raw material prices. A price reduction was appropriate in July’23, as construction suffers during the rainy season.

There was a decline in pricing as the Iron ore and coal prices are also trading at reasonable rates, thereby lowering steel pricing in the month of May’23. As of July 2023, as compared to July 2022, TMT rebar prices were at a 24-month low.

Rebar prices rose sharply in Sep'23 due to moderate demand for finished steel and higher raw material prices. Since, market in Gujarat experienced a lack of activity primarily due to the substantial disruption caused by a powerful cyclone that hit India's western coastline, prices of structural steel remained in pressure.

Prices of structural steel saw an increasing trend in September 2023. This increase was seen due to the increased price of iron ore and other raw materials. In early Dec’23, rebar prices started declining due to subdued demand.

2023

In Q12023, The inventory level remained high as the supply increased from China as new production capacity became active.

The macroeconomic condition regarding the hike in the global inflation rate provoked buyers to shy away from placing large orders. The increased extraction and energy cost has been implying a downward pressure on the Magnesium Alloys market.

In Q2 2023, the price of Magnesium Alloy ingots in the Chinese spot market rose due to increased demand from the growing sales of electric vehicles. Chinese government initiatives supporting automobile sales and the expansion of the electric vehicle sector have fueled this trend

Factors such as rising interest rates, supply shortages of Aluminum and Magnesium feedstock, disruptions in domestic Magnesium plants, and higher raw material costs have contributed to the price hike. The Chinese auto sector's profitability and government policies boosting transaction rates have also driven increased demand from the downstream auto parts industry.

In Dec’23, China's magnesium ingot exports totaled 19,885 tons, marking a 12.6% decline compared to the previous month and a 6.4% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.

The cumulative year-on-year export decrease for the entire year amounted to 21.5%.

Despite a short-term surplus in magnesium supply, the overall market sentiment is pessimistic.

However, factory profits from current magnesium prices are near their bottom, suggesting limited potential for further price reductions. Consequently, the expectation is for magnesium ingot prices to remain stable, reflecting a delicate balance between excess supply and minimal room for further decline.

2025

The potential shortage is closely tied to the global economic trajectory, and existing capacity is expected to suffice until 2025.

2024

In the latter half of this decade, there is a looming risk of global demand for caustic soda surpassing production capacity due to rising production costs and increased electricity expenses.

However, the industry may face shortages and price increases in January 2024 unless additional capacity is introduced. Recent challenges in the chemical industry, marked by dwindling raw material supplies and inflationary pressures, have been exacerbated by supply and demand imbalances, causing disruptions in the availability of caustic soda, a vital component for chemical and food manufacturers.

2023

In Q2 2023,South American Caustic Soda prices hit a low due to reduced demand, oversupply, and economic factors. Despite a May West Coast recovery, Brazil saw a 9.5% price drop in April, with a slight rebound in May and June.

Q3 witnessed a rise fueled by demand, disrupted supply chains from China, and increased import costs in Brazil. Q4 maintained resilience due to constrained supplies, transportation issues, and rising demand from the Alumina industry in Brazil. Volatility, import challenges, and downstream demand influenced a December price surge.

2022

The North American Caustic Soda market experienced fluctuations throughout 2022. Q1saw an uptrend due to plant turnarounds in the USA, causing supply shortages and increased demand.

June witnessed another upswing, influenced by decreased downstream demand, force majeure events, and the USA's high inflation rate. September remained stable,with declining prices driven by lower demand and impending plant shutdowns.However, by December, prices plummeted due to muted demand, market uncertainties, and increased supply, prompting a Force Majeure by Covestro.

2024

In 2024, the global economic outlook will significantly influence the demand for natural gas.

While a gradual recovery is anticipated, especially in emerging markets, concerns about ongoing inflation in Europe may impact industrial and commercial energy needs, affecting natural gas consumption.

North American gas markets could remain subdued in early 2024 due to factors such as high underground storage inventories, potential warmer winters, weak industrial and commercial demand, and robust U.S. production.

Despite initial constraints, a tightening supply/demand balance later in the year may lead to higher spot gas prices, with a projected full-year average of $3.50/thousand cubic feet (mcf) on NYMEX.

2023

The natural gas market faced notable challenges in 2023, marked by pronounced volatility and a general decline in prices.

The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price, a key indicator, averaged approximately $2.80 per million British thermal units during the winter heating season, a significant decrease from earlier projections. This drop was primarily attributed to record-high U.S. natural gas production in November 2023, reaching around 105 billion cubic feet per day and resulting in market oversupply.

Additionally,milder winter weather and increased storage inventories, surpassing the five-year average by 7% by November, further contributed to downward price pressure.

The year also witnessed the influence of regulatory changes and environmental policies, shaping production and consumption dynamics in the natural gas sector.

2024

The anticipated average for Brent crude in 2024 is projected to be $82.56, a slight decrease from the November consensus of $84.43.

This downward revision is attributed to expectations of subdued global growth, which is anticipated to limit demand. Despite this, ongoing geopolitical tensions are seen as a factor that could provide support to prices.

2023

Crude oil benchmark Brent futures remained relatively stable over the past year, from January to December 2023. This stability can be attributed primarily to the supply cuts implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

Additionally, theongoing Israel-Hamas war has contributed to the stabilization of oil prices.Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have justified these production cutsas a precautionary measure aimed at maintaining the stability of the oilmarket. Crude oil prices have been influenced by various factors, including astronger US dollar and the recent increase in US bond yields.

These elements have played a significant role in shaping the movement of crude oil prices over the last few months.

However,the latest meeting conducted by OPEC+ proved to be disappointing for those expecting an upward trend in prices. Investors perceived limited impact from the announced supply cuts on the oil markets, contributing to the subdued response in crude oil prices.

Forecasts

It is predicted that uncertainty about whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), will be able to fully adhere to the supply cuts they have promised to implement to bolster prices.

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