Avocado Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

The US paid the most for avocado in Q2 2026: USD 1,734/MT, down 6.0% from USD 1,845 in Q1. That's the smallest quarterly drop since this correction began, which tells you the market's finally finding a floor. Worldwide, the average fell 6.0%, to USD 1,294/MT from USD 1,377, as the sharp reset that's defined this market since late 2025 finally started to level off. What about H2 2026? We'd expect a global average somewhere in the USD 1,240-1,345/MT range, prices settling into a more normal band after an unusually volatile stretch.

Mexico grows and exports far more avocado than anywhere else, its Hass-dominated orchards in Michoacan supplying most of what North America eats. Peru and Colombia have both built substantial export trades of their own, particularly into the European and growing Asian markets. Three things move the price more than anything else: the Mexican harvest volumes, since Mexico alone accounts for the large majority of internationally traded fruit, the US-Mexico cross-border trade conditions, and the consumer demand trends including guacamole and foodservice applications that have kept structurally expanding the category for years.

The 2025 price spike that preceded this correction is worth understanding in some detail, since it explains almost everything about where prices sit today. A short Mexican harvest coincided with a July 2024 safety-related suspension of USDA plant-health inspectors working in Michoacan, a suspension triggered by an assault on inspection personnel that briefly halted the certification process avocado need to cross the US border. That combination of a smaller crop and a disrupted trade channel pushed prices to levels rarely seen in this market's history.

What's happened since is a fairly textbook supply response. Mexican growers, responding to the record prices, expanded plantings and the 2026 harvest came in well ahead of expectations, while the inspection process itself returned fully to normal. Both of those developments together explain the scale of the correction that's played out over the past several quarters. The scale of Mexico's dominance also means that even a modest percentage shift in its harvest volume translates into a meaningful absolute change in global supply, far more than the same percentage move would in a less concentrated market.

Avocado Price Forecast for 2026

Supply and demand should stay considerably looser through H2 2026 than they were a year ago. A short 2025 Mexican crop, worsened by a July 2024 safety-related suspension of USDA inspectors that briefly disrupted the cross-border shipments, pushed prices to multi-year highs through most of last year. That's now fully unwound. Mexico's 2026 harvest came in well ahead of expectations, and the cross-border trade has normalized completely, leaving the market considerably better supplied than it's been in years.

For buyers who need to plan further ahead, the current oversupply looks likely to persist at least through the immediate second half of the year, barring any renewed disruption to Mexican production or trade. That gives procurement teams a reasonable window to build inventory or negotiate longer-term agreements at prices well below last year's highs.

What could push prices back up? A weaker-than-expected second half to Mexico's harvest, or a renewed disruption to the cross-border trade. What could pull them even lower? A continuation of the current oversupply, which still has room to run given how strong this year's harvest has been.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Avocado Prices Q2 2026:

• Mexico: USD 1,349/MT
• Peru: USD 1,129/MT
• Colombia: USD 1,074/MT
• United States: USD 1,734/MT

Avocado Prices in Mexico

Mexico's avocado growers saw the price reset continue this quarter, though at a much gentler pace: down 6.0% to USD 1,349/MT from USD 1,435 in Q1.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q2 2026 in Mexico?

The steepest part of the correction is behind this market now. A strong harvest kept the supply ample, but the pace of decline finally slowed considerably.

Avocado Prices in Peru

Peru fell 6.0% to USD 1,129/MT, the steady export volumes keeping the market well supplied through the period.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q2 2026 in Peru?

The export volumes kept flowing steadily, and that supply kept pulling prices lower, even as the pace of decline eased.

Avocado Prices in Colombia

Colombia fell 6.0% to USD 1,074/MT, its growing export trade adding further supply to the market.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q2 2026 in Colombia?

Colombia's export trade kept expanding, adding to the broader global oversupply that's been pulling prices down all year.

Avocado Prices in United States

USD 1,734/MT. That's where the US landed in Q2, down 6.0% from USD 1,845 in Q1, the smallest quarterly drop since the correction began.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q2 2026 in United States?

The normalized cross-border trade with Mexico is really the story of the past year here, and that normalization is now largely complete, which is why the drop finally slowed.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Avocado Prices Q1 2026:

• Mexico: USD 1,435/MT
• Peru: USD 1,201/MT
• Colombia: USD 1,143/MT
• United States: USD 1,845/MT

Avocado Prices in Mexico

Mexico fell 12.0% to USD 1,435/MT, a strong harvest coming in well ahead of expectations as the year opened.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q1 2026 in Mexico?

The 2026 Mexican harvest came in considerably stronger than expected, and that alone explains the sharp drop this quarter.

Avocado Prices in Peru

Peru fell 12.0% to USD 1,201/MT, the export volumes continuing to build as the year began.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q1 2026 in Peru?

The export volumes kept building as the year began, adding further supply to an already loosening market.

Avocado Prices in Colombia

Colombia fell 11.9% to USD 1,143/MT, its export trade continuing to expand as the year opened.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q1 2026 in Colombia?

Colombia's export trade kept expanding as the year opened, adding further supply to the correction already underway.

Avocado Prices in United States

US avocado fell 12.0% to USD 1,845/MT, the cross-border trade with Mexico continuing to normalize after 2025's disruptions.

Why did the price of avocado change in Q1 2026 in United States?

The cross-border trade kept normalizing after last year's disruptions, and that alone drove most of the drop this quarter.

Quarterly Avocado Price Trends

The global average has fallen in five of the last six quarters, from USD 2,350/MT in Q1 2025 all the way down to USD 1,294 by Q2 2026, a cumulative decline of about 44.9%. That's an unusually sharp move for a fresh-produce commodity, and it traces back to a short 2025 Mexican crop that briefly spiked prices to multi-year highs, followed by a strong harvest recovery and the full normalization of the cross-border trade that's brought the market back to earth.

What was Avocado Price in 2025?

2025 was a wild year for avocado, dominated by a short Mexican crop that pushed prices to multi-year highs before the correction began. The global average opened near USD 2,350/MT in Q1 and had already fallen to USD 1,564 by Q4, a decline of about 33.4%. A short 2025 harvest, combined with a July 2024 safety-related suspension of USDA inspectors that briefly disrupted the cross-border shipments, kept prices elevated early in the year before the market started correcting hard as the harvest situation and the trade conditions both improved.

Avocado Prices in Mexico in 2025

Mexican prices fell from about USD 2,450/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,631 by Q4, down roughly 33.4%, as the short 2025 crop's grip on the market gave way to signs of a stronger harvest ahead.

Avocado Prices in Peru in 2025

Peruvian prices dropped from USD 2,050/MT in Q1 to USD 1,365 by Q4, a 33.4% decline, tracking the same broader correction across the year.

Avocado Prices in Colombia in 2025

Colombian prices fell from USD 1,950/MT in Q1 to USD 1,298 by Q4, down 33.4%, as its growing export trade met the same softening demand picture.

Avocado Prices in United States in 2025

US prices moved from USD 3,150/MT in Q1 to USD 2,096 by Q4, a 33.5% decline, the highest absolute price throughout the four markets even after the correction took hold.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Avocado Price Intelligence

We keep a continuous eye on the avocado prices wherever they're grown or consumed at scale, tracing causation through the Mexican harvest volumes, the US-Mexico cross-border trade conditions, and the structural consumer demand trends. Our analysts track the Mexican inspection and certification process closely, given how directly it affects the flow of fruit across the border, and we revisit each of the four markets covered here every month. Need pricing data, bespoke market analysis, or procurement advisory? Reach out to our team.