Cocoa Powder Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The EMR pricing report on Cocoa Powder provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, global cocoa powder price trends took an upward curve sharply due to a surge in cocoa bean costs and tightening supply conditions. This increase put pressure on food manufacturers and impacted pricing across chocolate and beverage sectors as well. In Q1 2025, global cocoa powder prices became a bit more stable as supply improved and market pressure eased. At the same time, processing stayed strong, with grindings in Europe and Asia falling only 3–4%, which was better than expected and helped support the market.

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The rising cost of cocoa powder and growing sustainability concerns are driving food manufacturers to seek alternatives that maintain flavor and functionality while reducing reliance on traditional cocoa inputs. In response to volatile cocoa powder price trends, one such solution is Cocoa Butter Buds, a concentrated powder made with real cocoa fat designed to replicate the taste and mouthfeel of real chocolate. This ingredient allows for a significant reduction in cocoa powder usage by up to 40% in chocolate frosting applications and from 10% to 8% in instant hot chocolate powder.

Cocoa Powder Price Forecast

The projected global surplus for the 2024–25 cocoa season triggered a sharp decline in global cocoa prices, reversing a prolonged uptrend, thus affecting the cocoa powder market trends. In March 2024, following the release of the forecast, New York cocoa futures for May delivery plunged 10%, while London cocoa futures fell nearly 11%. These drops represent one of the most significant single-session price corrections in recent memory and were fueled by market expectations of a continued tight supply being suddenly reversed. The fall reflects trader sentiment adjusting to increased supply expectations and weakened demand indicators. While cocoa powder is a derivative of cocoa beans, cocoa powder price trends are also expected to reflect this shift, with potential downward pressure in the near term due to the anticipated surplus. The broader price trend had previously seen cocoa trading at historic highs due to tight supply, but this new surplus outlook suggests potential downward pressure on prices in the near term.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs in 2025 by the United States on cocoa bean imports from the Ivory Coast (21%) and Ghana (10%), which are the world’s top two cocoa producers, has introduced significant disruptions to the global cocoa trade. Notably, cocoa powder from the Netherlands, which is another major supplier, has been hit with a 20% tariff, further tightening margins for U.S. confectionery and food producers. These policy shifts are expected to influence cocoa powder price trends, as higher import costs may translate into elevated domestic prices and increased volatility across the value chain.

Beyond the tariff-related trade friction, the global cocoa industry is already contending with a severe supply crisis. In January, the International Cocoa Association forecasted a 478,000-tonne global cocoa deficit, i.e. the largest in over 60 years, due to weather disruptions and disease outbreaks in West Africa. This is the fourth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, reflecting deep structural problems in cocoa production. These continuous supply-side disruptions have compounded logistical and sourcing challenges, especially for downstream manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe who rely on consistent, high-volume exports. The subsequent bottlenecks in cocoa bean supply and increasing input costs are contributing factors shaping current cocoa powder price trends, with long-term implications for inventory planning, pricing strategies, and trade relations across the value chain.

Feedstock Analysis

Cocoa powder is produced from fermented and dried cocoa beans, which are obtained from the Theobroma cacao tree found in tropical areas. The beans are initially cleaned and roasted to bring out the flavour and cut down on moisture. They are then cracked and winnowed to break the outer husk and leave behind cocoa nibs. These nibs are further ground into a dense liquid referred to as cocoa liquor, which has both cocoa butter and cocoa solids. The liquor is then pressed to extract most of the cocoa butter, and what remains as the solid cake is milled into finer cocoa powder Recent increases in cocoa bean prices have elevated production costs, thereby influencing cocoa powder price trends and raising the cost of chocolate-based products globally.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Cocoa Powder

After several years of global cocoa deficits, February 2024 forecasts anticipated a surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024–25 season. This shift is largely attributed to production recovery in key regions. The Ivory Coast’s output is projected at 1.85 million tons (up from 1.67 million), and Ghana’s at 600,000 tons (up from 530,000 tons), supported by improved crop management and incentives from prior high prices. Despite this, weak demand led to a projected 4.8% decline in global cocoa grindings, dropping to 4.65 million tons. As a result, cocoa powder price trends are expected to stabilize or soften in the near term, although volatility remains a risk.

Favorable weather in West Africa is expected to sustain this production rebound, allowing cocoa powder price trends to reflect easing supply pressures. However, any renewed crop setbacks or logistical bottlenecks could reverse this trend and trigger another spike. Market participants are thus closely monitoring harvest progress, port conditions, and input costs to assess where cocoa powder price trends might head in the second half of 2025.

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