Durum Wheat Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Durum Wheat provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, prices of Durum Wheat primarily witnessed a decline with some regional variations with factors such as rise in global production of durum wheat, change in international trade dynamics, and geopolitical instability contributing towards it. Regional price trends varied across North America, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Europe, highlighting varying business and economic climate. In 2025 Global durum wheat prices trends are expected to remain steady or see a slight decline owing to  favorable planting conditions and adequate yields.

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In Italy, ex-works prices of durum wheat witnessed a decline in the last quarter of 2024, compared to the previous year, with factors such as high harvest output, weak export demand, and fall in global wheat prices exerting downward pressure on prices. Increased supply from other key exporting countries like Canada and Turkey, intensified international competition and supported this downward trend in prices.

Durum Wheat Price Forecast

In 2024, global durum wheat prices generally declined, with regional fluctuations. In Italy, prices dropped from USD 383/MT in January to USD 314/MT in December, driven by strong global supply (Canada, Turkey, USA) and weak pasta industry demand. Italy saw increased imports, with over 90% of imports from major producers, further putting downward pressure on prices. Canada saw a price drop due to a production recovery after 2023’s droughts, surplus exports, and favourable growing conditions. Turkey's prices also declined owing to higher output, a rise in exports, currency advantage, and government support. China experienced a similar price drop.

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Broader macroeconomic factors affecting durum wheat price forecast suggests that for 2025, prices are expected to remain steady to slightly decline, with demand from Mediterranean, North American, and Asian markets shaping the market outlook. Strong global production and yields may limit price gains. Stable output from Canada might lead to moderation in North American prices, with Turkey also expected to see slight increases from rising domestic production and exports. China and India are likely to maintain stable demand. Inflation, currency shifts, trade policies, and logistics changes could cause short-term volatility in prices. Overall, the 2025 outlook is stable to moderately bullish, influenced by regional dynamics.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

In 2024, the pricing trends of Durum Wheat were significantly impacted by supply chain disruptions and trade policy changes. Italy, a major producer and importer, saw sharp declines in output caused by heatwaves and unseasonal rainfall, contributing to a global supply shortage. This led to volatility in durum wheat and pasta prices in the region.

With global supplies running low, countries like Algeria and Tunisia imported from alternative suppliers such as Turkey and Mexico to meet demand, thus affecting the global trade flow of durum wheat. Additionally, in June 2024, the Turkish government eased restrictions on the export of durum wheat, milling wheat, and barley in response to surplus stocks from a record harvest in the previous year. The policy change, implemented through an export licensing system administered by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), enabled a rise in international shipments. Overall, the global Durum wheat supply chain in 2024 was impacted by changes in international trade regulations, weather-related disruptions, and geopolitical landscape.

Feedstock Analysis

Fluctuations in global wheat and fertilizer markets in 2024 significantly influenced the pricing of durum wheat, a critical raw material for pasta and semolina production. Favorable weather conditions in key producing regions such as Canada and the U.S. Northern Plains during early 2024 led to improved crop yields, resulting in increased supply and downward pressure on prices in North American markets.

In summary, while abundant North American harvests helped moderate global durum wheat prices, other factors such as weather-related conditions, hikes in input costs, and geopolitical trade dynamics contributed to European and Mediterranean market trends. These factors collectively shaped the durum wheat price changes in 2024.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Durum Wheat

The outlook for durum wheat is anticipated to be cautiously optimistic, with expected persistent demand from key consumption sectors and the stabilization of global supply following the regional disruptions experienced in 2024. Demand is anticipated to remain strong, particularly from the pasta and semolina processing industries, with countries like Italy, North Africa, Turkey, and North America supporting consumption. Rise in adoption of food products from the West and change in urban diets might drive durum wheat consumption in emerging economies, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic production constraints following the poor harvests in 2024 in Europe and North Africa might affect the market negatively in those regions.

On the supply side, factors such as climate uncertainty, macroeconomic variables, and cross-border policies would affect durum wheat availability.  Additionally, trade policy shifts, such as export restrictions along with tariff changes, could further affect supply stability and global pricing trends of durum wheat. In conclusion, durum wheat demand is expected to grow steadily in the future, supported by strong applications from downstream industries and rising interest from developing markets, with supply chain bottlenecks and global policy changes might lead to instability.

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