Ethanol Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Ethanol provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, ethanol prices around the world were characterised by uneven trends for different regions based on seasonal changes in demand, feedstock availability, as well as policy considerations. In Q1 2025, ethanol prices exhibited mixed trends. January saw stable pricing, February experienced a rise due to increased demand and trading activity, and March witnessed a decline as production costs decreased and demand softened.

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In 2024, prices fell in the US during the third quarter owing to low demand for ethanol-blended fuels and decreased corn prices, contributing to oversupply in the market. On the other hand, the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, had stable to slightly rising prices, fueled by steady demand and supply limitations. In Europe, higher domestic output and imports created a surplus, and prices dropped. Brazil had a mixed picture, with prices increasing in the first half of the third quarter because of robust domestic demand and production limitations, but then dropping as demand eased and production stabilised.

Ethanol Price Forecast

Ethanol prices are predicted to go up in the near term based on seasonal boosts in demand, especially in the U.S., as the summer driving season increases ethanol-blended fuel consumption. Although prices fell in early December 2024 because of excessive stock and lower export demand, sustained growth in domestic demand and improved export prospects to markets such as Europe and South Korea are predicted to sustain a recovery. Higher corn prices and USDA production projections imply an increasing cost of production that could put upward pressure on ethanol prices. Short-term supply chain dislocations, such as increasing freight rates and transportation bottlenecks, can create spot market price volatility. In Brazil, a dip in sugarcane processing and a shift toward corn-based ethanol manufacturing helped to bring about a modest price dip late in 2024. However, robust domestic demand and government-supported infrastructure investments portend future price stability and export expansion. In total, ethanol prices in the U.S. and Brazil are projected to increase moderately up to mid-2025, with additional upward pressure likely during the peak summer months as demand tightens and strengthens.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

United States, remains the biggest player in the global ethanol market, holding around 44% of the share in 2024. This is because of the government rules, modern technology, and a reliable supply of corn. With the ability to produce over 17 billion gallons of ethanol each year and strong support from rural communities, the U.S. plays a key role in shaping global ethanol prices and trade. Strong production is benefiting many countries become major ethanol exporters, which in turn supports global supply.

In Europe, strict environmental rules and clean energy goals are increasing demand for ethanol, leading to more imports especially from the countries like U.S. This could impact trade routes and pricing between the two regions. In Asia-Pacific, ethanol demand is growing rapidly because of industrial growth and high energy demands. While China and India are increasing their own ethanol production, they are currently import more in the order to meet the requirements of short-term demands. These changes indicate a tightening global supply chain with higher interregional trade flows, possible price volatility from feedstock availability, and growing geopolitical and policy factors on market access and pricing structures.

Feedstock Analysis

Ethanol production relies on different feedstocks depending on the region, availability and what makes the most sense for that area. In the U.S., corn is the main ingredient for ethanol, marking up about 40% of the country’s corn usage. The U.S. ethanol industry typically uses dry milling to convert corn into ethanol. In Brazil, sugarcane takes the lead because it has high sugar content and provides a good energy balance, making it both efficient and environmentally friendlier. These choices of feedstock have a big impact on the cost, environmental effects, and how easily ethanol can be produced on a large scale. Ongoing research is looking at how to make the most of these resources to make ethanol production even more efficient and sustainable.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Ethanol

The Ethanol market is anticipated to grow as it is used in various industries globally. The demand from Fuel and additive Industry is leading the Ethanol market because of its flammability characteristics and clean burning nature as a fuel, The use of ethanol is expected to increase up to about 162 million tonnes by the year 2035. The use of Ethanol as a solvent to manufacture a broad spectrum of chemicals is expected to inflate the use of Ethanol during the forecast period. The demand for ethanol will continue to grow even further in the upcoming years because of increasing health consciousness among people and increased demand for disinfectants.

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