Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Ethylene provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In early 2024, the global spot price trends of ethylene experienced persistent downward pressure due to widespread oversupply and sluggish downstream demand, particularly from the packaging and construction sectors. Heading into 2025, ethylene price are expected to remain volatile with a slight upward bias, largely influenced by tightening supply from plant maintenance schedules and regional capacity constraints.

In 2024, ethylene prices declined sharply due to oversupply, especially in Asia, where China and South Korea operated at high cracker rates. By year-end, the decline slowed as production cuts and unplanned shutdowns took effect. The U.S. maintained margins through low-cost feedstocks, though exports were limited by logistics. Europe faced high energy costs, prompting run rate reductions, while Middle Eastern exports were affected by shipping delays. Latin America saw price volatility from currency shifts, and China’s low export prices pressured regional markets before stabilising in late Q4. In 2025, a modest recovery is expected if demand improves and capacity is managed carefully.

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Ethylene Price Forecast

Ethylene prices are currently under pressure due to global oversupply, weak downstream demand, particularly from the LDPE and LLDPE sectors, and declining feedstock costs such as naphtha and natural gas. While the U.S. market has shown some stability, regions including Europe and Asia have experienced price declines. The global ethylene market is projected to grow steadily over the coming years, driven by increasing demand for polyethene products. However, ongoing capacity expansions, especially in China and Southeast Asia (such as the Lotte Chemical LINE project in Indonesia), may exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance. Although markets like India showed modest recovery, the overall industry outlook remains cautious amid macroeconomic headwinds, shifting regional capacities, and subdued manufacturing activity.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The global trade of ethylene and its derivatives is heavily influenced by regional feedstock availability, production costs, and infrastructure capabilities, leading to complex supply chain dynamics. Regions with access to low-cost feedstocks, such as ethane in North America and the Middle East, have become major exporters of ethylene derivatives, particularly polyethylene, to markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America. This has intensified global competition and created interdependencies among producing and consuming regions. Trade flows are also shaped by logistics costs, port capacities, and geopolitical factors, which can disrupt supply chains and impact pricing.

Supply chain challenges have grown due to fluctuations in raw material prices, capacity expansions, and regulatory changes aimed at sustainability. Broader macroeconomic factors affecting ethylene price forecast suggests that the rise in production capacity in Asia, especially China, has led to localised oversupply, prompting increased exports but also driving price volatility. Meanwhile, disruptions in shipping, such as port congestion or trade restrictions, affect the timely delivery of ethylene and its derivatives globally. Additionally, shifts towards more sustainable feedstocks and production methods are causing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies to ensure resilience, reduce carbon footprints, and comply with evolving environmental regulations. These factors collectively make the ethylene supply chain complex and sensitive to global economic and political changes.

Feedstock Analysis

Ethylene price trends are heavily influenced by the type, cost, and regional availability of feedstocks such as naphtha, ethane, propane, and butane. In Asia and Europe, where naphtha is the dominant feedstock, ethylene prices are closely tied to crude oil market fluctuations—lower oil prices reduce naphtha costs and exert downward pressure on ethylene prices, while price hikes have the opposite effect. In contrast, North America and the Middle East rely primarily on ethane derived from natural gas liquids, which offers more stable and lower-cost production, resulting in comparatively steadier ethylene prices. Propane and butane serve as alternative feedstocks and influence price dynamics when they become economically favorable. Regional feedstock advantages contribute to price differentials, with ethane-rich regions like the U.S. often enjoying a competitive edge. Overall, feedstock economics, energy market volatility, and shifts in production strategies significantly shape ethylene pricing trends across global markets.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Ethylene

The global ethylene market outlook is expected to experience significant growth driven by rising demand from industries such as packaging, automotive, construction, and consumer goods. This growth is largely fueled by the increased production of polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and other derivatives essential to these sectors. Emerging market trends are playing a key role in boosting demand, supported by ongoing urbanisation and industrial development worldwide.

On the supply side, the industry faces challenges due to oversupply, particularly in Asia and Europe, where new production capacities—especially in China and the Middle East—have intensified competition and pressured producer margins. In response, some European companies are closing older steam crackers or shifting to more cost-efficient feedstocks like ethane. Similarly, Asian producers are increasingly importing U.S. ethane to reduce costs amid shrinking profits. Despite these pressures, the ethylene market remains resilient, with strategic production adjustments and sustained demand from growing markets supporting its expansion.

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