HFC Refrigerant Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

HFC Refrigerant prices in the United States, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 12.7% in Q2 2026 to USD 11,500.00/MT from USD 10,200.00/MT in Q1, extending a dramatic structural climb as AIM Act production quota phase-downs continued tightening domestic supply against steady service and new-equipment demand. Chinese prices rose 21.1% to USD 8,720.00/MT, the sharpest regional gain of any region tracked in this report, as record summer cooling-season demand met frozen domestic production quotas. Globally, the average rose from USD 8,142.00/MT in Q1 to USD 9,203.80/MT in Q2, a 13.0% gain, following an extraordinary 16.5% jump in Q1 alone as regulatory phase-down schedules across major markets continued squeezing available supply. For H2 2026, this market's outlook stays firm, with quota-driven structural scarcity expected to keep pricing elevated even as new-equipment adoption of lower-GWP alternatives gradually shifts long-term demand patterns.

HFC Refrigerant refers to hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant gases, including widely used blends such as R410A, R134a, and R32, employed in air conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump systems across residential, commercial, and automotive applications. Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the US AIM Act, and the EU F-gas Regulation, HFC production and import quotas are being phased down annually to reduce these compounds' high global warming potential, creating a structural supply squeeze against relatively stable or growing service and new-equipment demand. China dominates global HFC production capacity, though its own domestic quotas remain frozen at only marginal increases, meaning even the largest producing region faces the same underlying scarcity dynamic affecting import-dependent Western markets. Regulatory production quota phase-downs, seasonal cooling and heat pump demand, and feedstock fluorspar and energy costs are what drive prices in this market.

HFC Refrigerant Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for HFC Refrigerant through H2 2026 stays firm, with quota-driven structural scarcity under the Kigali Amendment, AIM Act, and EU F-gas Regulation expected to keep pricing elevated across every region tracked in this report. Continued strong demand from summer cooling season air conditioning, cold storage and cold-chain logistics, and rapidly growing electric vehicle heat pump applications should sustain consumption even as new-equipment manufacturers gradually shift toward lower-GWP A2L alternatives like R32 and R454B over the coming years.

The main upside risk is a further tightening of regulatory production quotas or an acceleration of electric vehicle heat pump demand, which could push prices higher than currently forecast across every region. The main downside risk is a faster-than-expected transition to lower-GWP alternative refrigerants combined with softer seasonal cooling demand, which could ease some of the current structural price pressure over the medium term.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

HFC Refrigerant Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 11,500.00/MT
• Germany: USD 10,100.00/MT
• China: USD 8,720.00/MT
• India: USD 5,750.00/MT

HFC Refrigerant Prices in United States

US HFC Refrigerant prices averaged USD 11,500.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 12.7% from USD 10,200.00/MT in Q1, as AIM Act production quota phase-downs continued tightening domestic supply against steady summer cooling-season service demand across the country. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Three factors continued stacking on top of each other: the EPA AIM Act ended manufacture of new residential equipment using older HFC blends, annual production allowances continued shrinking, and demand for service refrigerant remained high given tens of millions of existing systems still in operation. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in Germany

German prices averaged USD 10,100.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 9.8% from USD 9,200.00/MT in Q1, as EU F-gas Regulation quota reductions continued constraining European supply even as demand from air conditioning and heat pump manufacturers remained resilient through the quarter. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

EU F-gas Regulation quota reductions continued shrinking available HFC import and production volumes, with compliance reporting and quota management costs increasingly passed through to customers, even as demand from air conditioning and heat pump manufacturers remained resilient through the quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 8,720.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 21.1% from USD 7,200.00/MT in Q1, the sharpest regional gain of any region tracked in this report, as record summer cooling-season demand met frozen domestic production quotas. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q2 2026 in China?

The arrival of China's summer cooling season strengthened downstream demand, with home appliance manufacturers securing procurement contracts during the second quarter leading to rapid growth in orders, while heat pump systems in new energy vehicles became an increasingly important source of refrigerant demand. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in India

Indian prices, the lowest of the four regions, averaged USD 5,750.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 8.5% from USD 5,300.00/MT in Q1, as this market's less mature regulatory phase-down continued keeping it comparatively affordable relative to Western and Chinese benchmarks. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q2 2026 in India?

This market's comparatively less mature regulatory phase-down schedule continued keeping Indian offers more affordable than the other three regions tracked here, even as the broader global quota-driven scarcity trend pushed prices modestly higher through the quarter. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

HFC Refrigerant Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 10,200.00/MT
• Germany: USD 9,200.00/MT
• China: USD 7,200.00/MT
• India: USD 5,300.00/MT

HFC Refrigerant Prices in United States

US prices surged 17.2% in Q1 2026 to USD 10,200.00/MT from USD 8,700.00/MT in Q4 2025, as industry tracking showed prices climbing 40 to 60 percent since the 2025 phase-down began, with wholesale per-pound prices moving from roughly four to eight dollars historically to substantially higher levels. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Less supply and steady or rising demand produced predictable price increases, with the EPA's annual HFC production allowances being cut to materially smaller levels each year even as demand for service refrigerant remained high given tens of millions of existing systems still requiring maintenance and recharge. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in Germany

German prices surged 15.7% in Q1 2026 to USD 9,200.00/MT from USD 7,950.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader European quota phase-down affecting HFC import and production availability. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Policy phase-downs under the Kigali Amendment and EU F-gas Regulation continued shrinking HFC import and production limits, with lower availability of quotas meaning increased prices, especially as demand for the approaching summer cooling season began to rise across the continent. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in China

Chinese prices surged 18.0% in Q1 2026 to USD 7,200.00/MT from USD 6,100.00/MT in Q4 2025, as China's third-generation HFC refrigerants remained subject to strict production quota management, with total quotas increasing only marginally and effectively freezing domestic production capacity. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q1 2026 in China?

Domestic HFC refrigerant spot markets continued holding steady at high levels, with long-term contract pricing providing strong support for spot pricing and expectations for the approaching peak cooling season continuing to materialize gradually through the quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in India

Indian prices surged 14.0% in Q1 2026 to USD 5,300.00/MT from USD 4,650.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader global regulatory phase-down trend affecting HFC supply availability. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

Why did the price of HFC Refrigerant change in Q1 2026 in India?

Rising domestic demand from expanding cooling and refrigeration applications, combined with the broader global regulatory phase-down trend limiting available supply, continued pushing Indian HFC refrigerant prices higher through the quarter. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

Quarterly HFC Refrigerant Price Trends

Global HFC Refrigerant prices firmed steadily through 2025 as regulatory quota phase-downs under the Kigali Amendment, AIM Act, and EU F-gas Regulation gradually tightened supply, before accelerating dramatically in 2026, with China hitting record highs during its peak summer cooling season and every region tracked in this report posting double-digit quarterly gains as structural scarcity met strong seasonal and electric vehicle heat pump demand.

What was HFC Refrigerant Price in 2025?

HFC Refrigerant firmed steadily across every market covered in this report through 2025, tracking gradually tightening regulatory production quotas under the Kigali Amendment, AIM Act, and EU F-gas Regulation, with the United States posting the strongest annual gain of the four regions well before the extraordinary acceleration that followed in 2026. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in United States in 2025

US prices firmed from about USD 7,800.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 8,700.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 11.5%, the strongest annual increase of the four regions, setting the stage for the extraordinary quota-driven rally that followed in 2026. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices firmed from about USD 7,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 7,950.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 10.4%, tracking the gradual EU F-gas Regulation quota phase-down through the year across European markets. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices firmed from about USD 5,500.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,100.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 10.9%, before the dramatic acceleration that followed once China's frozen domestic quotas met record summer 2026 cooling demand. Buyers and sellers alike watched these developments closely for signs of further movement. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term.

HFC Refrigerant Prices in India in 2025

Indian prices firmed from about USD 4,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,650.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 10.7%, tracking the broader global regulatory phase-down trend even as this market remained the most affordable of the four regions. These conditions are expected to remain a key factor shaping pricing in the near term. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time HFC Refrigerant Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks HFC Refrigerant prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining regulatory production quota phase-down data, seasonal cooling and heat pump demand signals, and feedstock fluorspar and energy cost trends into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the structural scarcity covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this essential cooling gas is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.