Merchant Bar Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

Merchant bar prices across the major producing regions drifted lower through most of 2025 before steadying late in the year. In China, the largest producer, the average moved from USD 0.545/KG in the first quarter to USD 0.505/KG by the fourth, a fall of about 7.3% as a domestic supply glut met soft construction and small-fabrication demand. Merchant bars are commodity-grade long steel products such as rounds, flats, angles, and channels, hot-rolled from billet or reinforcing-grade steel and used in general engineering and light structural work. Construction and infrastructure absorb the bulk of demand at roughly 55%, with general fabrication and machinery near 25% and the balance split across automotive components and agricultural equipment. The price of merchant bar tracks a familiar set of drivers: scrap and billet costs, mill electricity tariffs, freight, import duties, and the seasonal rhythm of building activity. These forces shaped the firmer tone that returned in early 2026.

Merchant Bar Price Forecast for 2026

The supply and demand balance for merchant bar through the rest of 2026 looks broadly even, with a mild upward bias. Producer cost floors are firm rather than tight, held up by steady scrap values and by elevated freight after the mid-year disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted shipping and insurance costs on east-west routes. Demand is steady rather than booming, supported by infrastructure spending across Asia and the Gulf and by distributors restocking after running inventories thin in 2025. The market looks set for gradual movement rather than a sharp swing. The main upside risk is a deeper freight and supply shock that keeps import-parity prices high. The main downside risk is renewed Chinese export pressure, where ample capacity and a soft property market could push surplus tonnes into seaborne markets and cap prices.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Merchant Bar Prices Q1 2026:

• China: USD 0.522/KG
• United States: USD 1.158/KG
• Germany: USD 0.752/KG
• India: USD 0.592/KG

Merchant Bar Prices in China

Chinese merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.522/KG in Q1 2026, up 3.4% from USD 0.505/KG in Q4 2025. Firmer iron ore and scrap values lifted the cost base, while pre-Lunar New Year restocking and a brief lift in mill sentiment supported quotes. Export enquiries improved as buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East booked ahead of rising freight. Even so, a still-fragile property sector kept the recovery measured.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q1 2026 in China?

Higher iron ore and scrap costs raised the production floor, and seasonal restocking tightened near-term supply. Stronger export interest ahead of rising freight added support, though weak property demand capped the gain.

Merchant Bar Prices in the United States

US merchant bar prices averaged USD 1.158/KG in Q1 2026, a 2.5% rise from USD 1.130/KG in Q4 2025 and the highest level among reporting regions. Domestic mills held list prices firm, and the threat of wider import tariffs discouraged low-priced offshore offers. Service centres rebuilt stocks after a cautious end to 2025, and steady non-residential construction kept order books healthy.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

Firm mill pricing and the prospect of tighter trade measures limited import competition. Distributor restocking and steady construction demand absorbed available tonnes, sustaining the premium over all other regions.

Merchant Bar Prices in Germany

German merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.752/KG in Q1 2026, 2.3% above the USD 0.735/KG seen in Q4 2025. A small rise in scrap costs and steadier electricity prices nudged offers higher, and producers pushed for margin repair after a hard 2025. Construction and machinery demand stayed subdued, so the rise reflected cost pass-through more than any real pickup in use.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Higher scrap and energy-linked costs let mills lift offers modestly. Thin but stable demand and steady competition from imported bar kept the gain small.

Merchant Bar Prices in India

Indian merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.592/KG in Q1 2026, up 3.0% from USD 0.575/KG in Q4 2025. Pre-budget and pre-monsoon construction supported demand, and firmer sponge iron and scrap costs lifted the floor. Domestic mills ran at healthy rates, yet a rising tide of cheap imported long steel, much of it diverted from China, capped how far sellers could push prices.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q1 2026 in India?

Seasonal construction demand and higher sponge iron and scrap costs lifted prices. Heavy low-priced imports from Asia limited the increase, keeping India well below Western benchmarks.

For the Quarter Ending December 2025

Merchant Bar Prices Q4 2025:

• China: USD 0.505/KG
• United States: USD 1.130/KG
• Germany: USD 0.735/KG
• India: USD 0.575/KG

Merchant Bar Prices in China

Chinese merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.505/KG in Q4 2025, broadly stable after three soft quarters. Mills trimmed output as margins thinned, which helped arrest the slide. Demand from construction stayed weak through the seasonal slowdown, and high port and mill inventories kept any rebound in check. Late in the quarter, early concern over Middle East shipping lifted export sentiment, hinting at the firmer tone that followed in 2026.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q4 2025 in China?

Production restraint steadied prices after a weak run. Soft seasonal construction demand and high inventories prevented a recovery, holding the average near USD 0.505/KG.

Merchant Bar Prices in the United States

US merchant bar prices averaged USD 1.130/KG in Q4 2025, easing slightly from earlier in the year. Manufacturing activity stayed in contraction for much of the second half, which softened order intake from fabricators. Mills resisted deep discounts, leaning on trade protection and disciplined supply, so the correction was shallow.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q4 2025 in the United States?

A contracting manufacturing sector trimmed demand and pulled prices off their highs. Firm mill discipline and import limits cushioned the decline, leaving the United States the highest-priced market.

Merchant Bar Prices in Germany

German merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.735/KG in Q4 2025, the year’s low after a steady erosion through the earlier quarters. Weak construction and a sluggish industrial economy capped demand, and competitively priced imports added pressure. Easing scrap and energy costs let mills hold the line near break-even, and modest pre-winter restocking helped the market find a floor.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q4 2025 in Germany?

Soft construction demand and cheap imports pushed prices to their annual floor. Lower scrap and energy costs let producers stabilise offers, while restocking balanced thin supply.

Merchant Bar Prices in India

Indian merchant bar prices averaged USD 0.575/KG in Q4 2025, slightly weaker on the quarter. A wave of imported long and flat steel, with the country having swung from net exporter to net importer, pressured domestic benchmarks. Construction demand held up reasonably well, but the import overhang and cautious buying kept a lid on prices. Steady scrap and sponge iron costs prevented a sharper fall.

Why did the price of Merchant Bar change in Q4 2025 in India?

Rising low-priced imports and a shift to net-importer status weighed on prices. Reasonable construction demand and stable input costs limited the downside, holding the average near USD 0.575/KG.

Quarterly Merchant Bar Price Trends

Global merchant bar prices traced a shallow U across the six-quarter window. The average eased from USD 0.760/KG in Q1 2025 to a trough of USD 0.715/KG in Q3 2025 before recovering to USD 0.752/KG by Q1 2026, a net decline of 1.1%. Chinese oversupply and weak construction drove the 2025 weakness, while firmer scrap and freight costs powered the early-2026 rebound.

What was Merchant Bar Price in 2025?

Merchant bar prices fell through most of 2025 before levelling off late in the year. The global average opened at USD 0.760/KG in Q1, slipped to USD 0.715/KG by Q3, and settled near USD 0.728/KG in Q4, a full-year decline of about 4.2%. Three forces shaped the year. Persistent Chinese oversupply pushed surplus tonnes into export markets, weak construction and manufacturing activity sapped demand, and softer scrap and billet costs lowered the floor mills could defend.

Merchant Bar Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices opened Q1 2025 near USD 0.545/KG and closed Q4 at USD 0.505/KG, a fall of 7.3%, the steepest among reporting regions. Prices slid through the first three quarters as a property-led demand slump met stubbornly high output. A soft scrap and iron ore complex lowered costs and enabled aggressive export offers, while Q4 stabilised as mills curbed production. Structural overcapacity was the dominant driver.

Merchant Bar Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices began Q1 2025 around USD 1.200/KG and ended Q4 at USD 1.130/KG, a decline of 5.8%. Early-year mill increases lifted the market before a contracting manufacturing sector eroded demand from mid-year. Import limits and disciplined domestic supply kept the correction shallow, and the country held the highest prices all year.

Merchant Bar Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices fell from roughly USD 0.800/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.735/KG by Q4, a drop of 8.1%, the largest in the dataset. A weak construction sector and sluggish wider economy held demand down all year, and low-priced imports compounded the pressure. Easing energy and scrap costs let mills defend a floor by Q4. Persistent demand weakness was the year’s dominant driver.

Merchant Bar Prices in India in 2025

Indian prices declined from about USD 0.615/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.575/KG by Q4, a fall of 6.5%. The shift from net steel exporter to net importer reshaped the market, as a surge in cheap imports, much of it from China, undercut domestic offers. Construction demand stayed comparatively firm, cushioning the decline.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Merchant Bar Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks merchant bar prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, explaining not just that prices moved but precisely why. We trace causation through scrap and billet economics, electricity tariffs, freight, import duties, and downstream demand in construction, fabrication, and machinery. Our forecasts draw on feedstock economics, trade flow data, and mill capacity utilisation across all reporting regions. Contact Expert Market Research today for merchant bar pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.