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MS (Mild Steel) Beam prices are projected to fluctuate in the long term in the year 2024. Short-term market analysis suggests a decline in prices in the coming few months; however, with strategic correcting efforts in place at authoritative levels, the MS beam markets are likely to rebound slightly in the second half of the year. Overall, a confined and narrow-ranged price outlook is anticipated for MS beam in the year 2024.
The MS beam market dynamics have been dependent on its feedstock coking coal and iron ore markets in recent times. The seaborne coking coal market started the second quarter with declining prices, with concerns that they might dip below 2023 lows. China has been leading this downtrend, exacerbated by a weak steel market and fluctuating futures. Improved coal supply from Queensland following the end of the rainy season, coupled with a spike in Australian exports, has contributed to an oversupply. Consequently, S&P Global revised its 2024 forecast for Australian coking coal downward.
These dips in upstream costs and subdued downstream demands have been pulling the MS beam prices down in the first half of 2024. However, to balance out the MS beam markets, a decline in capacity utilization has been observed globally. In April 2024, global crude steel production fell by 5% year-over-year to 155.7 million tonnes, with China, the top producer, seeing a 7.2% decrease to 85.9 million tonnes. These efforts are expected to balance the MS beam markets going forward in the long term.
The annual pricing outlook for the year 2024 for MS beam looks a little challenging amidst various trade-related global uncertainties. In the short term, the market sentiments look bearish as the current consumption levels are highly ineffective in supporting the market prices for MS beam. However, post-election governmental infrastructure spending in India could potentially revitalize demand in the latter phase of the year. China, too, is trying to aid its Real Estate crisis with the announced stimulus budget. Thereby, the Asian MS beam markets hold potential for price corrections in the latter days.
On the other hand, despite showing resilience throughout 2023, the EU industry faces a challenging outlook for 2024. Marked by rising uncertainties, including volatile energy prices, weakened demand, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and economic difficulties exacerbated by high interest rates. The growth in steel-using sectors is expected to decline by 1% in 2024, primarily due to a second consecutive recession in the construction sector, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the delayed effects of high interest rates on manufacturing.
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