Phenol Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Phenol provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

The direction of phenol prices across the largest ten trading countries was influenced by shifting regional supply-demand dynamics, feedstock cost volatility, and the fortunes of the downstream sector in 2024. In Q1 2025, Phenol prices rose across all regions, driven by supply disruptions, rising benzene costs, and resilient construction demand. North America and APAC saw sustained bullish trends, while Europe experienced early gains followed by a March decline due to oversupply. Overall, the market reflected tight supply, cost inflation, and region-specific demand dynamics.

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There was rich volatility in China, with prices climbing early in the year due to geopolitical risk in combination with available supply, but prices fell due to oversupply and demand weakness from the construction and automotive sectors. The U.S. and Germany saw price pressures due to well-stocked inventories and modest demand, but Japan and South Korea experienced mixed signals with Japan experiencing temporary tightness due to maintenance and South Korea enjoying a slight uptick. Belgium reported increases towards the end of 2024.

This indicates that volatility will continue into 2025. Phenol price trends in China will be heavily influenced by the pace of its oversupply issues and demand recovery, while if feedstock costs remain high, prices in India may be stable to firm. Gradual improvements in the automotive and electronics sectors could help Japan and South Korea. The U.S. and Germany may still be facing ongoing price pressure unless inventories normalize and industrial activity increases. Belgium will continue to be influenced by movements upstream, while Mexico and Brazil will continue likely to experience volatility due to a reliance on imports and shipping challenges.

Phenol Price Forecast

The global phenol market outlook is anticipated to stabilize somewhat in 2025, following an extremely volatile year in 2024, which was influenced by erratic benzene prices and fluctuating downstream demand, as well as varying trade flows. In early 2024, there were price increases driven primarily by strong demand from the polycarbonate and epoxy resin markets, not to mention the strong benzene values that were driving up producer's input costs. Later in the first half of 2024, price gains were mostly reversed when surplus Chinese production capacity began hitting export markets and as company inventories began to accumulate with weak consumption, especially in the construction and automotive sectors in the U.S. Broader macroeconomic factors affecting phenol price forecast suggests, that, in 2025, oversupply in Asia and high European energy prices will continue to limit margins, the extreme volatility witnessed in 2024 should soften. Price recovery is expected to be moderate and gradual in 2025, facing downside restrictions from what appears to be a thoroughly capped market due to the availability of oversupply inventory levels. While some level of demand recovery, especially for downstream markets related to polycarbonate, epoxy resins, and construction, is expected, the recovery will most likely not be strong enough to enable drastic market price increases. Further growth in production from certain suppliers, softer feedstock pricing patterns, and differed demand recovery in regional markets, will put additional limitations on positive pricing developments. Producers will likely be focused on balancing supply with the recovery in demand and profitability management which has unfortunately become a more tentative pricing environment.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

In 2024, global trade and supply chains of phenol were influenced by regional production adjustments, inventory, and downstream demand across industrial sectors. Interestingly, exports out of China were on the rise. Exports surged in China due to domestic oversupply and soft domestic demand, which lowered costs in the international marketplace around the globe.

Most affected was Southeast Asia where exports contributed to plummeting prices in the region and affected development of ongoing long-term supply contracts in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. In contrast, supply chains from North America had modest shifts for reasons noted above and, possibly more importantly, this region was able to maintain supply chain stability and assurance due to production stability and knowledge of volume of imports. Therefore, North America continued to have a consistent supply of phenol in stock. Europe continued to have intermittent shortfalls largely due to fluctuating energy prices and continued softness from construction sector cautious purchases, the automotive sector purchasing, increased costs of transporting product in an ever-changing distribution landscape. Global supply channels were further complicated by geopolitics and ongoing disruptions in global shipping for energy costs and other risks triggered a focus on regionalized sourcing of phenol and supply chain assurance. Clearly, the underlying events and situations captured thinking in the phenol marketplace could easily shift supply-demand relationships in regions and impact the economic environment overall.

Feedstock Analysis

In 2024, phenol pricing analysis were heavily affected by the cost dynamics of its two main feedstocks—benzene and propylene—both derived through petrochemical processes and exorbitantly priced in the global crude oil market. Benzene is simultaneously a key feedstock for cumene, which is then used as a feedstock in phenol production, and experienced wide price volatility during the year. At the beginning of the year, benzene prices spiked due to limited refinery operations, high crude oil benchmarks, and seasonal supply tightness in Asia and Europe. As crude oil markets stabilized, benzene prices came down due to a weakening of demand from low margins and a weaker demand sweep from downstream applications, like styrenics and caprolactam. Propylene markets also experienced the same instability due to the inconsistent utilization of steam crackers, unplanned downtime, and slow post-COVID-19 reconstruction in the demand for polypropylene and acrylic derivatives. These feedstock-induced disruptions all affected the economics of cumene production, and subsequently, caused more pressure for phenol margins. In reaction, several phenol producers, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia, reduced production or simply adjusted loading rates to balance supply with demand and limit supply-side economics. Overall, the year highlighted the extent of benzene and propylene costs' sensitivity to phenol pricing, confirming the importance of feedstock stability in ensuring viable phenol production and economics around the world.

Demand and supply Outlook for Phenol

In 2024, the global phenol market experienced largely bearish conditions, with prices showing a downward trend across major regions due to sluggish downstream demand and abundant supply. Demand from key end-use sectors such as construction, automotive, and electronics remained tepid, impacting buying sentiment throughout the year. While Asia-Pacific continued to dominate global consumption, regional markets like Europe and North America also faced pressure from oversupply and weak industrial activity. Despite bisphenol-A (BPA) production continuing to drive phenol demand, producers grappled with high inventory levels and cost-management challenges. Looking ahead, while long-term growth prospects remain intact, the near-term outlook depends on a rebound in industrial demand and better alignment between supply and consumption trends.

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