Long Grain Rice Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Long-grain rice provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Due to trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and global economic conditions, long-grain rice prices have been very volatile. In New Delhi, mid-2024 witnessed a steep price for rice, reaching its 12-year high in July, consequent to India's restrictions on exports of non-basmati white rice. However, global prices began cooling when India lifted its ban and removed the minimum export price for basmati rice in September 2024. This policy led to an increase in supply, thus reducing the price. Global food commodity prices, including rice, declined in January 2025 due to improvements in supply plenitude and policy readjustments. As of Q1 2025, international long-grain rice prices decreased because of India's record-high output and the removal of export bans. This created an oversupply, which compelled Indian rice prices to an 18-month low and suppressed prices in Thailand and Vietnam.

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The restriction in 2024 meant limited availability to the global supply market, causing a sharply rising price. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) reported a 2.8% rise of its All-Rice Price Index in July, which is a 20% rise from the previous year.

Long-Grain Rice Price Forecast

The reports in January 2025 suggested a minor rise of 0.3% in prices of cereals including rice, compared to a slower rise in January 2024. This would suggest stability in the market, coming out of the 2024 disruptions.

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The forecast for future rice prices would depend on improved weather in countries with large rice production bases and the lifting of bans imposed by big global suppliers like India and Thailand on rice exports. For example, Japan's releasing from stockpiles in reaction to rising domestic rice prices by a whopping 55% could affect global consumption by increasing demand and reducing global prices.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

In September 2024, in response to a good new harvest and increased domestic inventories, India, the largest rice exporter in the world, lifted its ban on non-basmati white rice exports and cut export duties on parboiled rice. This policy shift caused global prices for rice to plummet. Other competing exporters, such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan responded by lowering their prices to remain competitive, greatly benefitting major world importers from Asia and Africa.

However, the global rice supply chain still faces a threat of disturbances. As late as 2024, labour negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association and the United States Maritime Alliance had stalled, raising the threat of strikes at key U.S. ports on the East and Gulf coasts. Possible disruptions could disrupt container-based agricultural exports, such as rice, which account for roughly 40% of U.S. containerized agricultural exports. This highlights the possible logistical challenges that the supply chains of rice can likely face.

Feedstock Analysis

Raw material and input price fluctuations have a major effect on the production costs and profitability of long-grain rice farming. Major inputs like fertilizers, seeds, water, and energy are critical for maximum yields. Significantly, in 2022, crop production costs, including rice, hit record levels as a result of steep fertilizer and fuel price hikes.

Also, increased input prices were a significant factor in 2022 planting plans, with variable costs for traditional hybrid rice production systems rising by nearly USD 230 per acre, or 34%, from the previous year.  These escalating prices can result in lower profit margins for farmers and are likely to impact acreage allocation decisions and crop management practices. Fluctuations in input prices thus make a significant contribution to whether the economic viability of long-grain rice production exists.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Long-Grain Rice

Going forward, global rice prices will depend largely on geopolitical developments, climatic conditions, and policy changes in major exporting countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam. In particular, the anticipated return of El Niño could present production risks in some key growing regions of rice, which would further complicate price movements.

Moreover, the economic conditions and policy interventions in major consuming nations will tremendously impact price movements. Relaxation of export restrictions or changes on the stockpile management front might renew further price corrections in global markets. The trading community must remain vigilant about trade policies and climate trends that can have long-term influences on price stabilization in the rice industry.

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What Our Reports Include:

Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.
• Visualisations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed industry analysis of current supply and demand trends, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.
• Insights from our extensive supplier and trader network, government websites, industry bodies, and global trade data.

Latest Industry News:

• Up-to-date information on recent developments and geopolitical events.
• Analysis of how these events are likely to impact future prices.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators:

• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.
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Price Outlook:

• Forecasted price trend analysis for long-grain rice for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical price analysis.
• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

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