Sugar Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

The world sugar reference fell steadily through 2025, sliding from USD 0.417/KG in Q1 to USD 0.353/KG by Q4 as bumper harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand flooded the market. Domestic refined prices held up far better and varied widely by region, with Northeast Asia near USD 0.85/KG and Europe closer to USD 0.40/KG. The gap between the world raw price and protected domestic markets defined the year. Sugar is refined from the sugarcane in the tropics and also the sugar beet in temperate zones, and traded both as a raw world commodity and as a refined product within the protected domestic markets. Food and beverage manufacturing is the largest outlet, ahead of direct household use and industrial uses such as ethanol. The world price answers to global harvest size, weather and freight, while domestic prices reflect local policy, import duties and regional supply. The global figures here track the workbook’s world reference series; regional figures reflect domestic refined prices.

Sugar Price Forecast for 2026

For the rest of 2026, the world reference looks soft as ample supply persists, while domestic markets keep their own logic. India and Northeast Asia stay firm behind policy and import costs, Europe holds its modest gains, and North America drifts with the world trend. A harvest setback in a major exporter or a fresh ethanol pull in Brazil would lift world prices. Another strong global crop would keep the raw reference under pressure.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Sugar Prices Q1 2026:

• Northeast Asia: USD 0.799/KG
• India: USD 0.718/KG
• North America: USD 0.704/KG
• Europe: USD 0.409/KG

Sugar Prices in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia stayed the dearest market in Q1 2026, easing 1.9% to USD 0.799/KG. Import reliance and domestic support programmes kept prices high, even as the world reference fell. Ample global supply trimmed import costs just enough to ease the market gently.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q1 2026 in Northeast Asia?

Lower world import costs eased the high domestic market 1.9% to USD 0.799/KG.

Sugar Prices in India

India eased 1.9% to USD 0.718/KG, holding well above world levels. Domestic policy, support prices and steady festival and food demand kept the market firm. A comfortable domestic crop allowed only a gentle decline.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q1 2026 in India?

Firm domestic policy and demand limited the fall to 1.9%, leaving prices at USD 0.718/KG.

Sugar Prices in North America

North America fell 5.2% to USD 0.704/KG, tracking the soft world market. Domestic refined prices, long supported above world levels, drifted lower as ample global supply pressed in. The decline was the steepest among the regional markets.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q1 2026 in North America?

Ample global supply pulled domestic refined prices down 5.2% to USD 0.704/KG.

Sugar Prices in Europe

Europe bucked the trend again, firming 2.1% to USD 0.409/KG and reaching its high. Tighter regional beet supply and steady demand supported the market. It was the only region to rise through the period, slowly closing some of its discount to the others.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

Tighter regional beet supply lifted prices 2.1% to a high of USD 0.409/KG.

For the Quarter Ending December 2025

Sugar Prices Q4 2025:

• Northeast Asia: USD 0.815/KG
• India: USD 0.731/KG
• North America: USD 0.743/KG
• Europe: USD 0.401/KG

Sugar Prices in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia fell 4.5% to USD 0.815/KG in Q4 2025 as cheaper world supply fed into import costs. Domestic support kept prices high, but the global glut pulled them off their earlier levels. The region stayed the dearest market.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q4 2025 in Northeast Asia?

Cheaper world supply fed into imports, driving a 4.5% fall to USD 0.815/KG.

Sugar Prices in India

India eased 1.8% to USD 0.731/KG in Q4 2025. A good harvest and ample domestic stocks pressed gently on prices, while policy support limited the fall. Steady demand kept the market firm relative to the world.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q4 2025 in India?

A good harvest pressed prices down 1.8% to USD 0.731/KG, cushioned by policy support.

Sugar Prices in North America

North America fell 6.2% to USD 0.743/KG in Q4 2025, its sharpest quarterly drop. The soft world market and comfortable domestic supply combined to pull refined prices lower. Buyers pushed for better terms as global sugar stayed cheap.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q4 2025 in North America?

A soft world market and comfortable supply drove a 6.2% fall to USD 0.743/KG.

Sugar Prices in Europe

Europe was essentially flat in Q4 2025 at USD 0.401/KG, down just 0.1%. Balanced regional beet supply and steady demand held the market steady. It had firmed through the year and simply held its ground into winter.

Why did the price of Sugar change in Q4 2025 in Europe?

Balanced beet supply and steady demand held prices flat at USD 0.401/KG, down 0.1%.

Quarterly Sugar Price Trends

The world sugar reference fell through every quarter of the window, from USD 0.417/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.346/KG by Q1 2026, a net decline of around 17.0%. Strong harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand kept the global market well supplied. Domestic refined prices fell more gently, and Europe even rose, leaving a wide and widening gap between the world reference and protected regional markets.

What was Sugar Price in 2025?

The world sugar price spent 2025 in retreat, the reference falling from USD 0.417/KG in Q1 to USD 0.353/KG by Q4, down around 15.3%. Three forces drove it. Bumper cane harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand swelled global supply. A strong Brazilian ethanol-versus-sugar balance still left plenty of sugar for export. And comfortable world stocks removed any scarcity premium. Domestic markets, shielded by policy and import costs, fell far more gently.

Sugar Prices in Northeast Asia in 2025

Northeast Asia stayed the dearest regional market, easing from USD 0.879/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.815/KG by Q4, down 7.3%. Import reliance and domestic support held prices high, while cheaper world supply trimmed them gradually. Import-cost economics was the dominant driver.

Sugar Prices in India in 2025

India held firm, slipping only from USD 0.745/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.731/KG by Q4, down 1.9%. Policy support, support prices and steady domestic demand kept the market well above world levels all year. Domestic policy was the dominant driver, insulating India from the world slide.

Sugar Prices in North America in 2025

North America eased from USD 0.812/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.743/KG by Q4, down 8.5%, then kept falling into 2026. Domestic refined prices, long supported above world levels, drifted lower as the global glut pressed in. The soft world market was the dominant driver.

Sugar Prices in Europe in 2025

Europe ran against the trend, climbing from USD 0.361/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.401/KG by Q4, up 11.1%, the only region to rise. Tighter regional beet supply and steady demand drove the gains. Local supply tightness was the dominant driver, slowly narrowing Europe’s discount to other markets.

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