TMT Bar Price Trends and Forecast Report 2025 Edition

The Expert Market Research pricing report on TMT Bar provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, Thermo-Mechanically Treated (TMT) bars observed price variations. These were caused due to changes in economic policies, raw material price fluctuations, and changes in demand.  Major markets such as North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe observed price changes highlighting the impact of world events and international trade relations on price changes. In early 2025, global steel prices, including those for TMT bars, declined due to oversupply, weak demand, and underutilized production capacity. Increased steel exports from China further intensified the downward pressure on TMT bar price trends worldwide.

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TMT bar prices stabilized by the end of 2024, after a period of fluctuations. However, price drops were observed in some regions due to the weakening of global demand. Measures taken by the government to reduce inflation contributed to driving this trend, stabilizing prices in some markets while causing them to decline in other regions.

TMT Bar Price Forecast

Early in 2024, international TMT bar prices remained flat, with minimal movement influenced by demand and general economic conditions. However, due to rise of costs in middle of year of feedstock materials like iron ore and metallurgical coal, prices started to trend upwards. In Asia Pacific, prices experienced slight decline by the end of 2024.

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For the year 2025, TMT bar prices worldwide are expected to remain relatively steady with moderate increases driven by increases in raw material costs. Volatile world demand—especially from construction activity in industries such as real estate and infrastructure—is likely to keep prices down. In the Chinese market, where delays to building projects remain widespread, volatility of prices will vary according to circumstances in domestic markets. In nations like India, the building industry is resilient due to continuous infrastructure development and increasing housing demand. This consistent demand for TMT steel serves to stabilize the market to a certain extent, allowing for price sustainability.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The international TMT bar market outlook has experienced considerable turbulence due to fluctuating raw material prices, continued supply chain disruptions, and rapidly changing trade policies. These factors, combined with rising production costs and logistical challenges, created instability across global steel markets. In 2024, a significant slowdown in global steel demand driven by weakened construction activity in major economies and declining investments in infrastructure led to reduced international trade volumes and a tighter supply of TMT bars in several regions. This downturn affected both export and importing countries, as oversupply in some areas clashed with shrinking demand in others.

In India, although domestic steel demand remained relatively stable due to government-backed infrastructure and housing projects, the local market faced increasing challenges from global dynamics. A sharp rise in low-cost imports, particularly from China and other Southeast Asian countries, introduced cheaper alternatives into the Indian market. This not only drove down domestic TMT bar prices but also significantly squeezed the profit margins of local steel producers. Many Indian manufacturers struggled to compete on price while maintaining quality, leading to concerns about long-term sustainability and competitiveness within the industry.

Feedstock Analysis

In 2024, the TMT steel bar industry was volatile, mostly because of increasing prices of essential raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal. These materials are used in steel making, and their price fluctuation directly impacts the prices and availability of TMT bars. At the beginning of 2024, iron ore prices declined as there were fears about China's steel export prospects following increasing trade tensions, resulting in a decline in February. Mid-year, though, saw the rise in iron ore and coal prices pushed production costs up, which consequently increased market prices. The raw material cost volatility made it difficult for TMT bar producers, affecting their profit margins and pricing analysis.

Demand and Supply Outlook for TMT Bar

By 2025, international steel rates, prevailing government regulations, and local market demand are expected to lead to minor increases in TMT bar prices. The TMT steel market is expected to keep on growing at a steady rate, with increasing urbanization, focus on infrastructure development, and rising concern towards environmentally friendly materials. Econometric market analysis also suggests that the demand forecast for TMT steel bars is anticipated to rise because of the significant investment in construction, by governments especially in developing nations like India. Future steel fabrication research and development should enhance TMT bars' quality and diminish their negative environmental effects. The use of raw materials such as iron ore and scrap which are essential in the production of TMT steel bars, a price shift may pose a challenge of market volatility that will affect both the manufacturers and the consumers. Another challenge that the steel industry faces is capital intensity. Manufacturers would then have to constantly invest in the upgradation of technology to produce high-quality products and meet industry standards.

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