Aluminium Price Trends and Forecast Report 2025 Edition

Expert Market Research pricing report on Aluminium covers the top 10 active trading countries/regions.

Aluminium prices exhibited notable fluctuations throughout 2024. Distinct cost structures and trade regulations across major economies including India, China, and the USA contributed to the regional price variances. The final quarter of 2024 saw a price increase from 2023 in October which was driven largely by persistent supply constraints. In Q1 2025, aluminium markets displayed mixed trends. North American and European ingot prices strengthened on tightening supply and rising input costs, while the APAC sheet market experienced price volatility due to fluctuating regional supply-demand conditions.

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Overall, aluminium prices continued to find support from resilient demand across key industries such as construction, manufacturing, and clean energy. In 2024, Key contributing factors included export disruptions in Guinea, reduced bauxite production in Australia and Jamaica, and the removal of China’s 13% export tax rebate on semi-manufactured aluminium. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on aluminium imports intensified global trade friction, adding upward pressure on prices. Demand for aluminium remained strong, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) and renewable energy sectors in China, amplifying the bullish outlook.

Aluminium Price Forecast

In H2 2024, aluminium prices are expected to remain volatile due to policy changes, supply chain disruptions, and trade uncertainties. The removal of China’s 13% export tax rebate in December 2024 has created market uncertainty, as it is unclear whether Chinese producers will lower prices to maintain exports or allow costs to rise for end users. Meanwhile, the market faces additional pressure from global alumina supply disruptions, trade barriers, and the closure of a major U.S. aluminium producer, limiting market expansion despite a 10% price increase from 2023.

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By January 2025, aluminium prices in India reached USD 2,573.40 per metric ton, reflecting a 1.27% month-over-month rise and a 17.36% year-over-year increase. Key drivers include supply constraints caused by alumina production disruptions, China’s policy shift eliminating tax rebates, and the U.S. government's 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, which have impacted global trade flows. These factors have tightened supply, increased production costs, and added market volatility, supporting elevated aluminium prices into 2025.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The global aluminum trade is changing due to U.S. tariffs and China's production limits. In the U.S., some aluminum plants have shut down, and in China, energy shortages in areas like Yunnan have slowed output. On top of that, key suppliers like Australia and Jamaica are facing problems shipping bauxite, which is needed to make aluminum. All this has led to less aluminum being available worldwide, pushing prices up and making markets more uncertain.

In response to these issues, emerging producers like India and Indonesia are playing are filling the supply gaps. Their growing production capacities are helping to stabilize the global aluminum supply to some extent. However, the overall situation is still uncertain. As countries change their trade partnerships and adjust how they buy and sell aluminum, the market is expected to become more unstable. This instability, particularly in the European and U.S. markets, where the supply-demand imbalance is most acute. In the long run, these developments are likely to drive fluctuating aluminum prices, with potential spikes depending on geopolitical developments, energy availability, and the pace at which new production capacity comes online.

Feedstock Analysis

In 2024, aluminium prices increased largely due to a surge in bauxite and alumina costs. Bauxite prices increased by 50%, driven by supply disruptions in Guinea, Brazil, and China’s environmental regulations. This led to a sharp 70% rise in alumina prices, significantly impacting Aluminium smelting costs. Producers like Rusal reduced output by 6% due to high raw material costs. However, new bauxite and alumina capacities expected in China, India, and Guinea in 2025 may stabilize prices in the coming years.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Aluminium Industry

The aluminium market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and evolving demand. Concerns over global trade conflicts, including potential tariffs, could impact supply chains. Energy shortages, particularly in China’s Yunnan province, have led to production curtailments, tightening supply. Strong demand from the automotive and construction sectors is expected to support prices, with analysts projecting a 6.3% increase, making aluminium the best-performing base metal.

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