Ammonia Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Ammonia provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Ammonia (NH₃) plays a pivotal role in global agriculture, with approximately 70% of global production dedicated to fertilizer applications. The remaining 30% finds usage across diverse industries, including chemicals, energy, cleaning, steel, and synthetic fibers. In 2024, global ammonia prices exhibited regional volatility driven by distinct supply-demand imbalances. Entering Q1 2025, the ammonia prices exhibited regional divergences. Where North American prices softened due to ample supply and restrained demand, Europe remained tight with elevated price fluctuations.

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The ongoing pressure on global fertilizer demand continues to shape market sentiment, especially with seasonal agricultural cycles in play, while Industrial sectors, including chemicals and energy, maintained steady demand. As of 2024, The price movements were primarily influenced by supply-side challenges in key regions. North America, Europe, and South America faced tight supply conditions due to reduced exports from major producers such as Trinidad & Tobago and Algeria. In Europe, supply shortages pushed buyers toward the spot market, amplifying price volatility and market sensitivity.

Ammonia Price Forecast

The costs of ammonia are responsive to gas price changes. This is especially true in Europe, which is still recovering from the price spikes in 2022. In the third quarter of 2024, Russia placed restrictions on the exports of ammonia, which created a global supply shortage. Egypt, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia had to fill in this supply gap, but they came with higher prices, which in turn increased global prices. At the same time, geopolitical issues in the Middle East curbed the shipment of ammonia, adding more tension to the price. The decline in Russian exports highlighted the country’s crucial role in the global ammonia market.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

Ammonia prices in the upcoming months will be influenced by the volatility in Natural Gas pricing, which has considerable bearing on costs across North America and Europe. The global supply chain's vulnerability was exposed by alerts from major exporting regions such as Trinidad & Tobago and Algeria, which led to changes in these areas as supply-side shocks became a significant determinant of price patterns.

Farmers restocking ammonia for crops is an example of seasonal demand that equally shifted prices during the year. Adverse weather conditions such as El Niño in South America and typhoons in Asia brought production and shipping to a standstill, which made pricing worse. As demand declined towards the end of 2024, prices levelled off, indicating a recurrent cycle in the ammonia market. Price forecasts for the future must consider variables like world politics, energy prices, and unforeseen supply problems, which have the potential to either aggravate shortages or aid in market stabilization.

Feedstock Analysis

Global natural gas dynamics continue to have a significant impact on ammonia production costs, and high gas prices are predicted to last until 2025. Feedstock costs are still rising due to supply shortages, geopolitical instability and competition for LNG imports, particularly in nations like Europe where reliance on pricey seaborne LNG has affected competitiveness. The loss of Russian pipeline gas with the increased demand from Asian markets and slower LNG capacity expansions has tightened up supply and sustained high prices. Although possible tariffs and output limitations could cause volatility, US ammonia producers profit from comparatively lower domestic petrol prices. Additional regulatory measures, such as methane emissions monitoring in the EU, are set to further cause a rise in costs. These factors ensure that ammonia production in regions like Europe will struggle against more competitive global producers since prices are relatively higher.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Ammonia

The Production capacity of ammonia is expected to grow by 9% from 2023 to 2028, increasing from 162.7 million tons (Mt N) in 2023 to 177.8 Mt N in 2028. This growth will average 1.5% per year. The new ammonia production capacity will primarily come from regions like Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA, including Russia and Uzbekistan), the United States, Africa (Egypt and Nigeria), West Asia (Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia), India, China, and Australia. The supply capacity is expected to grow slightly faster than demand in the upcoming five years. This would result in an ammonia surplus, with the nitrogen balance rising from a surplus of 3.6 Mt N in 2024 to 5.9 Mt N in 2027. This growth is driven by rising industrial demand, government initiatives, and the push for energy security.

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