Cocoa Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

Cocoa prices in the United Kingdom, the highest-cost reporting region, jumped 17.6% in Q2 2026 to USD 4,350.00/MT from USD 3,700.00/MT in Q1, a sharp reversal after five consecutive quarters of decline from the historic 2024 crisis peak. In the UK specifically, prices rose from about GBP 2.49 per kilogram to roughly GBP 3.09 per kilogram across the first two months of the quarter alone. Globally, the average rose from USD 3,416.00/MT in Q1 to USD 3,975.00/MT in Q2, a 16.4% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 3,600.00-4,400.00/MT is expected, with producer-country supply quality, timing, and weather-related risks likely to keep this market volatile even as the broader 2024/25 balance has shifted toward surplus.

Cocoa is the raw agricultural commodity derived from the seeds of the Theobroma cacao tree, harvested primarily across a narrow tropical belt around the equator and processed into cocoa mass, cocoa butter, and cocoa powder before chocolate manufacturers convert these intermediates into finished confectionery. West Africa, and specifically Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, produces approximately 60 to 65 percent of the world's annual cocoa supply, linking smallholder farmers there to multinational processors in the Netherlands, Germany, and the United States. This market experienced one of the most dramatic price cycles of any agricultural commodity in recent years, with 2024 crisis prices reaching a historic peak above USD 11,500/MT before a sustained correction brought prices down sharply through 2025. West African weather and pod survival conditions, ICCO production and grindings balance data, and downstream chocolate and confectionery demand are what drive prices in this market.

Cocoa Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Cocoa through H2 2026 stays volatile, even as the ICCO's May 2026 bulletin revised the 2024/25 cocoa balance to a surplus, with production estimated at 4.723 million tonnes against grindings of 4.628 million tonnes, easing some supply pressure. Cote d'Ivoire's 2025/26 production outlook has improved, projected at 2.0 to 2.1 million tonnes with arrivals exceeding 1.7 million tonnes by mid-May, yet regional farmers continue facing weaker pod survival and reduced flowering amid ongoing weather disruptions, keeping near-term price direction uncertain.

The main upside risk is a further deterioration in West African pod survival or flowering conditions, which could tighten supply and extend the sharp Q2 2026 price reversal further. The main downside risk is a faster-than-expected confirmation of the ICCO's surplus revision combined with continued cautious downstream grinding activity, which could resume the multi-quarter decline that characterized most of the period covered in this report.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Cocoa Prices Q2 2026:

• United Kingdom: USD 4,350.00/MT
• United States: USD 4,400.00/MT
• Germany: USD 4,200.00/MT
• Cote d'Ivoire: USD 2,750.00/MT

Cocoa Prices in United Kingdom

UK Cocoa prices averaged USD 4,350.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 17.6% from USD 3,700.00/MT in Q1, as market sentiment shifted sharply on concerns over producer-country supply quality, timing, and weather-related risks.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q2 2026 in United Kingdom?

Market sentiment was influenced by concerns over producer-country supply quality, timing, and weather-related risks, with prices rising from about GBP 2.49 per kilogram to roughly GBP 3.09 per kilogram across the first two months of the quarter alone.

Cocoa Prices in the United States

US prices averaged USD 4,400.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 15.8% from USD 3,800.00/MT in Q1, tracking the broader global reversal even as downstream demand stayed cautious.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

Downstream demand stayed cautious, as high bean costs reduced grinding interest and limited aggressive buying from processors, even as the broader market reversal pushed prices sharply higher.

Cocoa Prices in Germany

German prices averaged USD 4,200.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 16.7% from USD 3,600.00/MT in Q1, as European confectionery buyers responded to the same weather and supply-quality concerns affecting the broader market.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

Downstream demand stayed cautious in European confectionery markets specifically, as high bean costs reduced grinding interest even as sentiment shifted toward concerns over producer-country supply conditions.

Cocoa Prices in Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire origin prices, the lowest of the four regions, averaged USD 2,750.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 14.6% from USD 2,400.00/MT in Q1, as regional farmers faced weaker pod survival and reduced flowering amid weather disruptions.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q2 2026 in Cote d'Ivoire?

Cote d'Ivoire's outlook improved on paper, with 2025/26 production projected at 2.0 to 2.1 million tonnes and arrivals exceeding 1.7 million tonnes by mid-May, yet regional farmers faced weaker pod survival and reduced flowering amid the weather disruptions that drove the broader market reversal.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Cocoa Prices Q1 2026:

• United Kingdom: USD 3,700.00/MT
• United States: USD 3,800.00/MT
• Germany: USD 3,600.00/MT
• Cote d'Ivoire: USD 2,400.00/MT

Cocoa Prices in United Kingdom

UK prices fell 7.5% in Q1 2026 to USD 3,700.00/MT from USD 4,000.00/MT in Q4 2025, continuing the multi-quarter decline from 2024's historic crisis peak.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q1 2026 in United Kingdom?

The ICCO's data revisions pointed to an easing 2024/25 supply-demand balance, continuing the sustained multi-year correction that had already brought prices down sharply from the 2024 crisis peak above USD 11,500/MT.

Cocoa Prices in the United States

US prices fell 7.3% in Q1 2026 to USD 3,800.00/MT from USD 4,100.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader correction.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

Downstream demand stayed cautious, as high bean costs reduced grinding interest and limited aggressive purchasing, continuing the correction from the 2024 crisis highs.

Cocoa Prices in Germany

German prices fell 7.7% in Q1 2026 to USD 3,600.00/MT from USD 3,900.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader correction as the ICCO's supply outlook eased.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

ICCO's data continued pointing to an easing 2024/25 cocoa balance, with production estimates running ahead of grindings, easing some of the supply pressure that had characterized the market during the 2024 crisis period.

Cocoa Prices in Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire origin prices fell 5.9% in Q1 2026 to USD 2,400.00/MT from USD 2,550.00/MT in Q4 2025, the smallest quarterly decline of the four regions.

Why did the price of Cocoa change in Q1 2026 in Cote d'Ivoire?

Cote d'Ivoire's 2025/26 production outlook continued improving on paper, with strong arrivals data, even as the origin-price decline moderated relative to the sharper corrections seen in downstream consuming markets.

Quarterly Cocoa Price Trends

Global Cocoa prices declined for five consecutive quarters through the period covered in this report, continuing the sustained correction from 2024's historic crisis peak above USD 11,500/MT, before a sharp reversal took hold in Q2 2026 as concerns over West African producer-country supply quality, timing, and weather-related risks abruptly interrupted the broader easing trend.

What was Cocoa Price in 2025?

Cocoa declined sharply across every market covered in this report through 2025, continuing the sustained multi-quarter correction from 2024's historic crisis peak above USD 11,500/MT, as easing ICCO production and grindings data steadily reduced the acute supply pressure that had characterized the crisis period, before an abrupt Q2 2026 weather-driven reversal interrupted that trend.

Cocoa Prices in United Kingdom in 2025

UK prices declined from about USD 5,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,000.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 23.1%, continuing the correction from the 2024 crisis peak before the sharp Q2 2026 reversal that followed.

Cocoa Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices declined from about USD 5,300.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,100.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 22.6%, tracking the same sustained correction.

Cocoa Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices declined from about USD 5,100.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 3,900.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 23.5%, the steepest annual decline of the four regions.

Cocoa Prices in Cote d'Ivoire in 2025

Cote d'Ivoire origin prices declined from about USD 3,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,550.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 20.3%, the smallest annual decline of the four regions.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Cocoa Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Cocoa prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining West African weather and pod survival condition data, ICCO production and grindings balance signals, and downstream chocolate and confectionery demand trends into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the volatile trends covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this essential chocolate ingredient is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.