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Crude Oil Pricing, Demand and Supply Overview
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Crude Oil prices in Germany, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 6.0% in H1 2026, climbing from USD 85.3/BBL in Q1 to USD 90.4/BBL by Q2 as recovering downstream petroleum product demand, tighter OPEC+ production discipline, and firmer Middle East supply disruption risk premiums reversed the brief Q1 2026 price correction. Globally, the Brent crude benchmark average rose from USD 83.6/BBL in Q1 to USD 88.6/BBL in Q2, a 6.0% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 89.0-99.7/BBL is expected, with continued firming on OPEC+ supply restraint, recovering Asian refinery demand, and sustained geopolitical risk premiums in Middle East producing regions.
Crude Oil is the naturally occurring unprocessed liquid petroleum extracted from underground sedimentary reservoirs through directional and horizontal drilling, with hydraulic fracturing applied in tight oil formations and water and gas injection sustaining output from mature conventional fields. Grades range from light sweet to heavy sour based on API gravity and sulphur content, with West Texas Intermediate and dated Brent benchmark grades commanding premiums for lower refining costs and higher gasoline and distillate yield. The largest pull comes from refinery crude processing, where atmospheric and vacuum distillation, catalytic cracking, hydrotreating, and reforming operations convert crude oil into petrol, diesel, jet fuel, marine fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas for transportation and industrial use. Petrochemical naphtha and gas oil feedstock for ethylene, propylene, and aromatics production, heavy fuel oil for industrial and power generation, and lubricant base oil manufacture add further major demand streams. OPEC+ production quota discipline, geopolitical supply disruption risk, global petroleum product demand growth, and US shale basin production economics all feed into the price.
Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of supply and demand for Crude Oil through H2 2026 leans moderately firm. OPEC+ producer group production restraint maintained supply discipline. Asian refinery crude intake and transportation fuel demand recovered following the Q1 seasonal dip.
The main upside risk is an escalation of Middle East supply disruptions or unexpected OPEC+ production cuts tightening the market above the forecast range. The main downside risk is non-OPEC supply growth from US shale and Brazil deepwater combined with weaker-than-expected global petroleum demand softening prices.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/BBL) | Outlook |
| Global Average (Brent) | 89.0 - 99.7 | OPEC+ restraint and recovering Asian refinery demand |
| United States (WTI) | 85.4 - 95.7 | Domestic shale output limits premium vs Brent |
| China | 87.1 - 97.7 | High import dependence links to Brent-Dubai blend |
| Germany | 90.0 - 100.9 | Brent import cost plus European logistics premium |
| India | 86.4 - 96.9 | Dubai-Oman crude mix and freight cost from Gulf |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Crude Oil Prices Q2 2026:
- United States (WTI): USD 85.1/BBL
- China: USD 87.1/BBL
- Germany (Brent): USD 90.4/BBL
- India: USD 86.7/BBL
Crude Oil Prices in the United States
US WTI Crude Oil prices averaged USD 85.1/BBL in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 80.3/BBL in Q1 2026. Recovering downstream petroleum product demand, OPEC+ production discipline, and reduced Cushing inventory levels drove the Q2 recovery from the seasonal Q1 dip.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q2 2026 in the United States?
Recovering US gasoline and jet fuel demand lifted refinery crude runs and draw on domestic inventory. OPEC+ compliance with production targets tightened global crude availability. Pipeline logistics and export flow adjustments maintained WTI at a modest discount to Brent near USD 85.1/BBL.
Crude Oil Prices in China
Chinese crude oil import prices averaged USD 87.1/BBL in Q2 2026, up 5.9% from USD 82.2/BBL in Q1 2026. Recovering spring refinery crude intake, independent teapot refinery restocking, and tighter Middle East crude supply drove buying through the quarter.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q2 2026 in China?
Spring refinery maintenance season completion lifted crude intake and reduced spot cargo availability. Independent teapot refinery restocking added buying competition. Middle East supply disruption premiums on Dubai and Oman crudes raised import costs near USD 87.1/BBL.
Crude Oil Prices in Germany
German Brent crude oil import prices averaged USD 90.4/BBL in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 85.3/BBL in Q1 2026, the highest among the tracked markets. European refinery throughput recovery, firmer Brent forward curve, and Middle East supply risk premiums drove the Q2 firming from the Q1 correction.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
European refinery crude intake recovered from the Q1 seasonal maintenance period, reducing available spot cargo. Firmer Brent forward structure reflected tighter OPEC+ supply balances. Middle East geopolitical risk premiums sustained elevated buying interest near USD 90.4/BBL.
Crude Oil Prices in India
Indian crude oil import prices averaged USD 86.7/BBL in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 81.8/BBL in Q1 2026. Recovering refinery throughput, tighter Dubai-Oman crude grade availability, and elevated Middle East freight premiums drove consistent buying through the quarter.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q2 2026 in India?
Indian refinery crude intake recovered from the Q1 dip with seasonal transportation fuel demand. Tighter Dubai and Oman grade cargo availability raised spot import premiums. Middle East freight and insurance cost elevation added further pressure near USD 86.7/BBL.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Crude Oil Prices Q1 2026:
- United States (WTI): USD 80.3/BBL
- China: USD 82.2/BBL
- Germany (Brent): USD 85.3/BBL
- India: USD 81.8/BBL
Crude Oil Prices in the United States
US WTI prices averaged USD 80.3/BBL in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Seasonal US refinery maintenance, building Cushing inventory, and mild winter weather reducing heating fuel demand eased the market before the Q2 recovery.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Seasonal refinery maintenance reduced crude intake and built Cushing inventory. Mild winter weather softened heating oil demand. The market eased to USD 80.3/BBL before the Q2 spring driving season and refinery restart buying surge.
Crude Oil Prices in China
Chinese crude import prices averaged USD 82.2/BBL in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Post-Lunar New Year refinery maintenance and seasonal crude inventory draw reduction eased the market before Q2 spring restocking.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q1 2026 in China?
Post-Lunar New Year refinery maintenance schedules reduced crude intake and buying urgency. Seasonal inventory draw moderation softened import demand. The market eased to USD 82.2/BBL before the Q2 refinery restart and restocking surge.
Crude Oil Prices in Germany
German Brent import prices averaged USD 85.3/BBL in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. European refinery maintenance season, mild winter, and soft petroleum product demand eased the Brent market before Q2 recovery.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
European refinery maintenance season reduced crude intake and spot buying urgency. Mild winter softened heating oil demand. The Brent market eased to USD 85.3/BBL before the Q2 refinery restart and driving season demand recovery.
Crude Oil Prices in India
Indian crude import prices averaged USD 81.8/BBL in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Seasonal Indian refinery maintenance and moderate transportation fuel demand eased the import market before Q2 recovery.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in Q1 2026 in India?
Seasonal refinery maintenance reduced crude intake. Moderate transportation fuel demand softened import buying urgency. The market eased to USD 81.8/BBL before the Q2 spring refinery restart and fuel demand recovery.
Quarterly Crude Oil Price Trends
Global Brent Crude Oil prices firmed through Q3 and Q4 2025 on OPEC+ production restraint and recovering demand, corrected in Q1 2026 on seasonal maintenance and mild weather, then recovered in Q2 2026. The average rose from USD 82.0/BBL in Q2 2025 to USD 83.6/BBL in Q3 and USD 85.3/BBL in Q4, eased to USD 83.6/BBL in Q1 2026, then firmed to USD 88.6/BBL in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 8.0% over the window. OPEC+ quota compliance, geopolitical risk premiums, and refinery demand seasonality drove the overall price pattern.
| Quarter | Price (USD/BBL) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 88.6 | +6.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 83.6 | -2.0% | ↓ Falling |
| Q4 2025 | 85.3 | +2.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 83.6 | +2.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 82.0 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Crude Oil Price in 2025?
Crude Oil prices firmed modestly through 2025 on OPEC+ production restraint and recovering Asian demand. The global Brent average opened near USD 81.0/BBL in Q1 2025 and closed at USD 85.3/BBL in Q4, a full-year gain of about 5.3%. OPEC+ quota discipline, Middle East geopolitical risk premiums, and recovering petroleum product demand drove the upward trajectory through the year.
Crude Oil Prices in the United States in 2025
US WTI prices firmed from about USD 77.7/BBL in Q1 2025 to USD 81.9/BBL by Q4, a gain of 5.4%. OPEC+ production restraint and recovering transportation fuel demand supported the upward trend.
Crude Oil Prices in China in 2025
Chinese crude import prices firmed from roughly USD 79.6/BBL in Q1 2025 to USD 83.9/BBL by Q4, a gain of 5.4%. Recovering refinery throughput and teapot restocking drove the firming through the year.
Crude Oil Prices in Germany in 2025
German Brent import prices firmed from about USD 82.6/BBL in Q1 2025 to USD 87.0/BBL by Q4, a gain of 5.3%. OPEC+ restraint and recovering European refinery demand supported the market.
Crude Oil Prices in India in 2025
Indian crude import prices firmed from roughly USD 79.2/BBL in Q1 2025 to USD 83.5/BBL by Q4, a gain of 5.4%. Recovering refinery throughput and transportation fuel export demand drove firming.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Crude Oil Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks Crude Oil prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces causation through OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical supply disruption risk, global refinery crude demand cycles, and US shale production economics. Contact Expert Market Research today for Crude Oil pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*
Key Questions Answered in the Report
Refinery processing into transportation fuels takes the largest share globally, where atmospheric and vacuum distillation, catalytic cracking, hydrotreating, and reforming operations convert crude into petrol, diesel, jet fuel, marine fuel oil, and LPG. Petrochemical naphtha and gas oil feedstock for ethylene and aromatics complexes, heavy fuel oil for industrial and power generation, and lubricant base oil production also consume significant volumes globally.
The Q2 2026 average was USD 85.1/BBL (WTI) in the United States, USD 87.1/BBL in China, USD 90.4/BBL (Brent) in Germany, and USD 86.7/BBL in India. Germany carries the highest import cost reflecting Brent-linked procurement and European logistics premiums.
The global Brent average rose from USD 83.6/BBL in Q1 to about USD 88.6/BBL in Q2, a gain of around 6.0%. OPEC+ production restraint, recovering Asian refinery throughput, and Middle East supply risk premiums drove the H1 firming from the Q1 seasonal dip.
Seasonal refinery maintenance in the US, Europe, and Asia reduced crude intake simultaneously. Mild winter weather softened heating oil demand. Building Cushing and European crude inventories added further downward pressure before the Q2 demand recovery.
The global Brent average is expected in the USD 89.0 to 99.7/BBL range for H2 2026, with firming on OPEC+ supply discipline, recovering Asian petroleum demand, and sustained Middle East geopolitical risk premiums through the second half.
Germany carries the highest Brent-linked import cost, the United States and India hold a firm middle on WTI and Dubai grade benchmarks, and China sources across Dubai, Oman, and spot cargoes reflecting its diverse import origin mix.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
Prices respond mainly to OPEC+ production quota compliance, geopolitical supply disruption risk in Middle East producing regions, global petroleum product demand cycles, and US shale output economics. OPEC+ meeting outcomes and EIA inventory data are the primary weekly market signals.
The Middle East OPEC members, Russia, the United States shale basins, and Brazil deepwater pre-salt fields hold the largest production capacity. Any OPEC+ quota change or Middle East disruption ripples across all benchmark prices within days.
Buyers can use quarterly trends and forward curve structure to time crude oil and refined product procurement contracts around OPEC+ meeting cycles, build coverage when backwardation signals near-term tightness, and monitor OPEC+ quota announcements and EIA weekly inventory data as the primary cost signals.
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