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Ethanol Pricing, Demand and Supply Overview
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Ethanol prices in Germany, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 3.9% in Q2 2026 to USD 930.00/MT from USD 895.00/MT in Q1, as elevated crude oil prices strengthened blending economics across the fuel ethanol complex. Globally, the average rose from USD 776.00/MT in Q1 to USD 808.00/MT in Q2, a 4.1% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 790.00-850.00/MT is expected, with firm biofuel blending mandates and feedstock costs likely to keep this market on its established upward path.
Ethanol is produced primarily by fermenting starch or sugar feedstocks, corn in the United States, sugarcane in Brazil, and a mix of grain and sugarcane elsewhere, into a versatile alcohol used predominantly as a gasoline-blending fuel additive, alongside significant use in beverages, pharmaceuticals, and industrial solvents. Biofuel blending mandates, such as the United States renewable fuel standard, Brazil's ethanol-gasoline blending requirements, and India's expanding E20 program, provide a structural demand floor that has grown steadily in recent years. Corn and sugarcane feedstock costs, crude oil and gasoline price movements that influence blending economics, and biofuel policy mandates are what drive prices in this market.
Ethanol Price Forecast for 2026
The outlook for Ethanol through H2 2026 stays firm, supported by strengthening blending economics as crude oil prices remain elevated following Strait of Hormuz-related shipping tensions. Expanding biofuel mandates across multiple major markets, particularly India's ongoing E20 rollout, should provide continued structural demand support alongside these favorable blending dynamics.
The main upside risk is a further rise in crude oil prices, which would strengthen ethanol's blending economics relative to gasoline even further. The main downside risk is a sharp improvement in corn or sugarcane harvest conditions, which would ease feedstock costs and could pressure prices lower despite firm blending demand.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/MT) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 790.00 - 850.00 | Firm blending economics and mandates support continued gains |
| Germany | 910.00 - 970.00 | Feedstock and energy costs sustain the highest regional price |
| India | 840.00 - 900.00 | Expanding E20 blending mandate drives structural demand growth |
| United States | 760.00 - 820.00 | Strong corn-based supply keeps this market comparatively affordable |
| Brazil | 700.00 - 750.00 | Abundant sugarcane feedstock keeps this the lowest-cost market |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Ethanol Prices Q2 2026:
- Germany: USD 930.00/MT
- India: USD 860.00/MT
- United States: USD 775.00/MT
- Brazil: USD 715.00/MT
Ethanol Prices in Germany
German Ethanol prices averaged USD 930.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 3.9% from USD 895.00/MT in Q1, as elevated grain feedstock and energy costs continued supporting prices.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
Elevated grain feedstock costs, combined with rising energy expenses at fermentation and distillation facilities, kept German ethanol prices at a consistent premium over other regions tracked in this report.
Ethanol Prices in India
Indian Ethanol prices averaged USD 860.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 4.2% from USD 825.00/MT in Q1, as the ongoing E20 blending mandate rollout continued driving structural demand growth.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q2 2026 in India?
Continued expansion of the government's E20 ethanol blending program kept demand growing structurally, and that steady policy-driven pull supported prices even as domestic feedstock costs moved only modestly.
Ethanol Prices in the United States
US Ethanol prices averaged USD 775.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 4.0% from USD 745.00/MT in Q1, as strengthening blending economics tied to elevated crude oil prices supported the market.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q2 2026 in the United States?
Elevated crude oil prices, following Strait of Hormuz-related shipping tensions, strengthened ethanol's economics as a gasoline-blending component, supporting firm demand from fuel blenders even as corn supply remained ample.
Ethanol Prices in Brazil
Brazilian prices, the lowest of the four regions given abundant sugarcane feedstock, averaged USD 715.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 4.4% from USD 685.00/MT in Q1.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q2 2026 in Brazil?
Firm sugarcane-based ethanol production kept supply flowing steadily, while improving blending economics tied to elevated global crude oil prices supported gradual price gains through the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Ethanol Prices Q1 2026:
- Germany: USD 895.00/MT
- India: USD 825.00/MT
- United States: USD 745.00/MT
- Brazil: USD 685.00/MT
Ethanol Prices in Germany
German prices rose 4.1% in Q1 2026 to USD 895.00/MT from USD 860.00/MT in Q4 2025, as feedstock and energy costs continued building through the quarter.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
Rising grain feedstock and energy costs across European fermentation facilities kept a consistent floor under German ethanol prices, in line with broader industrial cost trends this year.
Ethanol Prices in India
Indian prices rose 4.4% in Q1 2026 to USD 825.00/MT from USD 790.00/MT in Q4 2025, as the E20 blending mandate rollout continued expanding.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q1 2026 in India?
The government's continued push to expand E20 blending infrastructure and mandate compliance kept demand growing at a steady structural pace, supporting firm pricing through the quarter.
Ethanol Prices in the United States
US prices rose 4.2% in Q1 2026 to USD 745.00/MT from USD 715.00/MT in Q4 2025, as rising crude oil prices strengthened blending economics.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Rising crude oil prices, driven by escalating tension around the Strait of Hormuz, strengthened the economics of blending ethanol into gasoline, supporting firmer fuel ethanol demand even as domestic corn supply stayed ample.
Ethanol Prices in Brazil
Brazilian prices rose 4.6% in Q1 2026 to USD 685.00/MT from USD 655.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader global firming trend in blending economics.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in Q1 2026 in Brazil?
Strengthening global blending economics, tied to the same elevated crude oil price environment affecting other markets, supported gradual gains even as Brazil's abundant sugarcane feedstock kept this the most affordable market tracked in this report.
Quarterly Ethanol Price Trends
Global Ethanol prices dipped modestly in Q2 2025 before climbing steadily and consistently through every subsequent quarter, supported by expanding biofuel blending mandates and, from late 2025 onward, strengthening blending economics as crude oil prices rose on Strait of Hormuz-related shipping tensions.
| Quarter | Price (USD/MT) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 808.00 | +4.1% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 776.00 | +4.3% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 744.00 | +3.8% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 717.00 | +3.8% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 691.00 | - | — Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | — In Progress |
What was Ethanol Price in 2025?
Ethanol firmed steadily and consistently across every market covered in this report through 2025, supported by expanding biofuel blending mandates in India and gradually improving blending economics, setting the stage for the further acceleration that followed once crude oil prices rose sharply in 2026.
Ethanol Prices in Germany in 2025
German prices firmed from about USD 820.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 860.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 4.9%, the smallest annual increase among the four regions.
Ethanol Prices in India in 2025
Indian prices firmed from about USD 750.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 790.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 5.3%, supported by steady progress on the E20 blending mandate rollout throughout the year.
Ethanol Prices in the United States in 2025
US prices firmed from about USD 680.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 715.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 5.1%, as gradually improving blending economics supported demand through the year.
Ethanol Prices in Brazil in 2025
Brazilian prices firmed from about USD 620.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 655.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 5.6%, the strongest annual gain of the four regions even as this remains the most affordable market given abundant sugarcane feedstock.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Ethanol Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks Ethanol prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining corn and sugarcane feedstock cost data, crude oil and blending economics, and biofuel policy developments into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the policy-driven and feedstock trends covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this widely used biofuel and industrial chemical is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.
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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*
Key Questions Answered in the Report
It is used predominantly as a gasoline-blending fuel additive, alongside significant use in beverages, pharmaceuticals, and industrial solvents.
The Q2 2026 global average was USD 808.00/MT, ranging from USD 715.00/MT in Brazil to USD 930.00/MT in Germany.
The global average rose from USD 744.00/MT in Q4 2025 to USD 776.00/MT in Q1 2026 and then to USD 808.00/MT in Q2, supported by strengthening blending economics as crude oil prices rose.
Elevated crude oil prices, following Strait of Hormuz-related shipping tensions, have strengthened ethanol's economics as a gasoline-blending component, while expanding biofuel mandates in markets such as India have provided additional structural demand support.
The global average is expected in the USD 790.00-850.00/MT range, supported by firm blending economics and expanding biofuel mandates.
Brazil holds the lowest cost given abundant sugarcane feedstock, while Germany carries the highest cost among the regions tracked here given elevated grain feedstock and energy costs.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, connect with the Expert Market Research team.
Corn and sugarcane feedstock costs, crude oil and gasoline price movements that influence blending economics, and biofuel policy mandates.
The United States and Brazil are by far the largest producers, based on corn and sugarcane feedstock respectively, with India rapidly expanding domestic capacity to support its E20 blending program.
Buyers can monitor crude oil price trends and biofuel policy developments given their outsized influence on this market, time forward purchases around the quarterly breakdowns in this report, and benchmark supplier quotes against the tracked price ranges.
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