Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

Ethylene prices moved in sharply different directions by region in Q2 2026, underscoring just how much feedstock position matters in this market. German naphtha-based prices reversed hard, falling 11.3% to USD 1,020.00/MT after a Hormuz-driven spike to USD 1,150.00/MT in Q1, while Saudi Arabian prices similarly cooled 5.3% to USD 465.00/MT following an even sharper Q1 jump. Indian prices, by contrast, kept climbing, up 6.0% to USD 830.00/MT, and US ethane-based prices continued their steady structural decline, down 4.6% to USD 520.00/MT, the cheapest of any region tracked here. Globally, the average fell from USD 745.03/MT in Q1 to USD 711.50/MT in Q2, a 4.5% retreat. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 680.00-800.00/MT is expected, with the wide regional gap between low-cost ethane crackers and naphtha-exposed producers likely to persist.

Ethylene is the world's most widely produced petrochemical building block, manufactured by steam cracking either ethane, a natural gas liquid abundant and cheap in North America and the Middle East, or naphtha, a crude oil derivative that dominates feedstock slates in Europe and much of Asia. It serves as the essential precursor for polyethylene, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polyvinyl chloride, and styrene, making it foundational to plastics, packaging, textiles, and construction materials. Because ethane-based and naphtha-based production carry structurally different cost bases, the regional price gap in this market reflects feedstock economics as much as, or more than, any difference in underlying supply and demand.

Ethylene Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Ethylene through H2 2026 points to continued wide regional divergence rather than a single global direction. North America's ethane-advantaged producers should stay the cheapest source globally as structural oversupply persists, while naphtha-based Europe and Asia remain far more exposed to crude oil price swings tied to ongoing Middle East shipping tensions. India's steady climb reflects genuine demand growth layered on top of that feedstock exposure.

The main upside risk is a renewed escalation of Strait of Hormuz-related shipping disruptions, which would push naphtha-based regional prices sharply higher again, much as it did in Q1. The main downside risk is continued oversupply from low-cost ethane crackers in North America and the Middle East, which would keep global average prices under persistent pressure.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Ethylene Prices Q2 2026:

• Germany: USD 1,020.00/MT
• India: USD 830.00/MT
• United States: USD 520.00/MT
• Saudi Arabia: USD 465.00/MT

Ethylene Prices in Germany

German Ethylene prices averaged USD 1,020.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 11.3% from USD 1,150.00/MT in Q1, as the sharp Hormuz-driven spike from earlier in the year partially unwound.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

As shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz began normalizing and crude oil prices eased back from their Q1 highs, naphtha feedstock costs for German and broader European crackers retreated in step, pulling finished ethylene prices down sharply.

Ethylene Prices in India

Indian prices averaged USD 830.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 783.33/MT in Q1, extending genuine demand-led growth even as the Q1 quarterly average had masked a sharper intra-quarter move.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q2 2026 in India?

Stronger downstream demand from polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol producers continued supporting Indian prices, even as the underlying naphtha-linked cost base moved only modestly compared with the sharp swings seen in Europe.

Ethylene Prices in the United States

US prices averaged USD 520.00/MT in Q2 2026, the lowest of any region tracked here, down 4.6% from USD 545.00/MT in Q1, as structural ethane-based oversupply continued weighing on this market.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

Weak downstream demand for polyethylene and other derivatives, combined with high domestic inventory levels and persistently low-cost ethane feedstock, gave US producers every incentive to keep competitive pricing strategies in place.

Ethylene Prices in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian prices averaged USD 465.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 5.3% from USD 491.00/MT in Q1, as the sharp early-year jump tied to regional risk premiums partially cooled.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q2 2026 in Saudi Arabia?

The acute regional risk premium that had driven prices sharply higher in Q1 eased somewhat as the immediate shipping disruption concerns receded, even as Saudi Arabia's underlying ethane cost advantage remained structurally intact.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Ethylene Prices Q1 2026:

• Germany: USD 1,150.00/MT
• India: USD 783.33/MT
• United States: USD 545.00/MT
• Saudi Arabia: USD 491.00/MT

Ethylene Prices in Germany

German prices spiked 11.7% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,150.00/MT from USD 1,030.00/MT in Q4 2025, as crude oil prices surged amid disruption of roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Naphtha-based European producers, already the most expensive in the world on a structural basis, felt the full force of the crude oil spike tied to Iran war disruptions, pushing German prices to their highest level in the six quarters covered in this report.

Ethylene Prices in India

Indian prices held essentially flat on a quarterly average basis in Q1 2026 at USD 783.33/MT versus USD 782.91/MT in Q4 2025, even though prices within the quarter rose by more than 7% from January to March.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q1 2026 in India?

Stronger downstream demand, higher naphtha-linked production costs directly influenced by freight disturbances from the Iran war, and improved buying from polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol markets all supported firmer prices toward the end of the quarter, even though the quarterly average stayed close to flat.

Ethylene Prices in the United States

US prices fell 2.7% in Q1 2026 to USD 545.00/MT from USD 560.00/MT in Q4 2025, extending a persistent downward trend tied to structural oversupply.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

Persistently low-cost ethane feedstock kept North American producers competitive even as global prices moved higher elsewhere, with stronger export opportunities providing only partial offset to soft domestic demand.

Ethylene Prices in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian prices jumped 10.3% in Q1 2026 to USD 491.00/MT from USD 445.00/MT in Q4 2025, one of the sharpest regional moves recorded anywhere in this report for the quarter.

Why did the price of Ethylene change in Q1 2026 in Saudi Arabia?

Export opportunities continued supporting prices even as regional risk premiums, tied to the broader Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, added a substantial and unusual cost layer on top of Saudi Arabia's normally low-cost ethane-based production.

Quarterly Ethylene Price Trends

Global Ethylene prices drifted lower through most of 2025 on persistent oversupply before a sharp but short-lived Q1 2026 spike, driven almost entirely by naphtha-exposed regions reacting to Strait of Hormuz-related crude oil disruptions, partially unwound again in Q2 as shipping conditions began normalizing.

What was Ethylene Price in 2025?

Ethylene told a genuinely divergent story across 2025. The United States, Germany, and Saudi Arabia all saw prices decline as global oversupply and soft demand weighed on the market, while India stood apart with a modest annual gain as genuine downstream demand growth outpaced the broader global softening.

Ethylene Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices fell from about USD 1,100.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,030.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 6.4%, before the sharp Q1 2026 spike reversed that decline entirely and then some.

Ethylene Prices in India in 2025

Indian prices actually firmed from about USD 750.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 782.91/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.4%, the only region among the four to post a positive annual figure, reflecting genuine demand growth from downstream derivative markets.

Ethylene Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices fell from about USD 620.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 560.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 9.7%, the steepest annual decline of the four regions as structural ethane-based oversupply persisted throughout the year.

Ethylene Prices in Saudi Arabia in 2025

Saudi Arabian prices fell from about USD 480.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 445.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 7.3%, before the sharp early-2026 risk-premium spike briefly reversed the trend.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Ethylene Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Ethylene prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining ethane and naphtha feedstock cost data, shipping and geopolitical risk indicators, and polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and derivative demand signals into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the wide regional divergence covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this foundational petrochemical building block is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.