Fuel Oil Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Singapore remained among the priciest Fuel Oil markets tracked, though it eased just above 3.6% in Q2 2026, to near USD 542/MT from about USD 562/MT in Q1, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption premium gradually faded. The global average moved from close to USD 516.00/MT down to about USD 508.00/MT over the same quarter, a decline of roughly 1.6%. Both the Q1 spike and the Q2 partial retreat trace back to the same single event, and the global average is likely to settle in the USD 495 to 540/MT range for the rest of the year.

The Fuel Oil tracked here refers to VLSFO, the very-low-sulfur marine fuel oil that has become the dominant bunkering grade since the International Maritime Organization's 2020 sulfur cap took effect. It is used almost exclusively to power the global commercial shipping fleet, with pricing set at major bunkering hubs including Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah, and the United States Gulf Coast. Because this market sits downstream of crude oil, and because shipping routes concentrate around a handful of chokepoints, geopolitical disruptions to those chokepoints, refinery maintenance cycles, and regional crude cost differentials are what really move the price from quarter to quarter.

Fuel Oil Price Forecast for 2026

The acute phase of the Strait of Hormuz disruption has faded, which points toward a gradual normalization through H2 2026, though prices are likely to settle above the levels seen before the crisis began. Seasonal shipping demand and refinery maintenance cycles should reassert themselves as the more dominant drivers.

A renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, or any other disruption to a major shipping chokepoint, could be what pushes prices back above this forecast. A full normalization of regional crude flows, or softer shipping demand, could be what eases the market further below it instead.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Fuel Oil Prices Q2 2026:

• Singapore: USD 542/MT
• Rotterdam: USD 494/MT
• Fujairah: USD 512/MT
• Houston: USD 483/MT

Fuel Oil Prices in Singapore

The Singapore VLSFO benchmark eased from about USD 562/MT to near USD 542/MT, a decline of just above 3.6%. It was the gradual fading of the Strait of Hormuz disruption premium, together with seasonal refinery turnarounds concluding, that let the market retreat from its March peak.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q2 2026 in Singapore?

Singapore had been the hardest-hit port when the Hormuz crisis erupted, and it is this same exposure that made the retreat sharpest here once the acute phase of the disruption eased. Refinery maintenance season, which had tightened regional supply earlier in the year, also wound down.

Fuel Oil Prices in Rotterdam

The Rotterdam VLSFO benchmark eased from about USD 506/MT to near USD 494/MT, a decline of just above 2.4%. It was mild weather reducing heating fuel competition, together with good barge availability, that let European prices soften further.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q2 2026 in Rotterdam?

Rotterdam felt the Hormuz-related disruption far less acutely than the Asian ports, and it is this relative insulation that explains why the European benchmark kept easing even as the broader market absorbed the shock. Distillate supply stayed ample throughout.

Fuel Oil Prices in Fujairah

The Fujairah price eased from about USD 518/MT to near USD 512/MT, a decline of just above 1.2%. It was competitive rates attracting stem diversions from the pricier Asian ports, together with strong IFO380 availability, that kept the market comparatively soft.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q2 2026 in Fujairah?

Fujairah's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz might have suggested greater exposure to the crisis, yet it was the port's competitive positioning relative to Singapore that instead drew vessels seeking to avoid the steeper Asian premium. That diversion traffic appears to have kept prices from climbing further.

Fuel Oil Prices in Houston

The Houston price moved from about USD 476/MT to near USD 483/MT, a gain of just above 1.5%. It was domestic crude cost movements, largely disconnected from the Hormuz disruption, that carried the modest increase.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q2 2026 in Houston?

The United States Gulf Coast market draws far less directly on Middle East crude flows than the Asian and European benchmarks, and it is this structural distance that appears to explain why Houston barely registered the Hormuz-driven volatility affecting Singapore and Fujairah.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Fuel Oil Prices Q1 2026:

• Singapore: USD 562/MT
• Rotterdam: USD 506/MT
• Fujairah: USD 518/MT
• Houston: USD 476/MT

Fuel Oil Prices in Singapore

The price reached close to USD 562/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 6.0% from Q4 2025. It was the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which disrupted a meaningful share of global crude and natural gas supply, that pushed the market sharply higher mid-quarter.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q1 2026 in Singapore?

The Singapore-Rotterdam price gap hit a record USD 362 per ton in mid-March, and it was Asia that absorbed the brunt of the disruption. Seasonal refinery turnarounds tightening regional supply at almost the same time compounded the spike.

Fuel Oil Prices in Rotterdam

The price reached close to USD 506/MT in Q1 2026, a decline of just above 3.1% from Q4 2025. It was the Strait of Hormuz crisis, felt with far less force in Europe than in Asia, together with mild late-winter weather, that kept the market comparatively soft.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q1 2026 in Rotterdam?

As we can see, the record Singapore-Rotterdam price gap in mid-March reflected less a European spike than an Asian one, since Rotterdam's own pricing stayed relatively steady to lower through the same window. Reduced heating fuel demand freed up distillate supply for the maritime market.

Fuel Oil Prices in Fujairah

The price reached close to USD 518/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 4.0% from Q4 2025. It was the regional proximity to the Hormuz disruption, together with steady demand from vessels on the Asia-Europe corridor, that pushed the market higher.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q1 2026 in Fujairah?

Fujairah sits close to the epicenter of the Hormuz disruption, and it was this proximity that lifted prices even as the port maintained a competitive edge over Singapore, drawing vessels seeking to avoid the steeper Asian premium.

Fuel Oil Prices in Houston

The price reached close to USD 476/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 1.7% from Q4 2025. The domestic market moved only modestly even as the Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed prices sharply higher elsewhere.

Why did the price of Fuel Oil change in Q1 2026 in Houston?

Houston's fuel oil pricing tracks domestic crude and refining economics far more closely than international freight and geopolitical disruptions, and it is this insulation that explains why the market barely moved even as Singapore and Rotterdam diverged sharply.

Quarterly Fuel Oil Price Trends

This market climbed steadily through 2025 before a sharp mid-window spike and partial retreat. Close to USD 483.00/MT in Q1 2025 rose to about USD 490.00/MT, near USD 497.00/MT, and close to USD 505.00/MT by Q4, before jumping to about USD 516.00/MT in Q1 2026 on the Hormuz disruption and easing to near USD 508.00/MT in Q2 as the acute phase faded. That is a rise of roughly 5.2% across the full window.

What was Fuel Oil Price in 2025?

It was steady bunkering demand along the major global shipping corridors that carried the fuel oil market through a comparatively calm 2025. The global average opened near USD 483.00/MT in Q1 and climbed to close to USD 505.00/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 4.6% for the year, before the geopolitical shock of the Strait of Hormuz disruption reshaped the market in early 2026.

Fuel Oil Prices in Singapore in 2025

The Singapore benchmark climbed from about USD 505/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 530/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 5.0% for the year, in a comparatively orderly climb before the geopolitical shock of early 2026. It was steady bunkering demand along the busy Asia trade corridor that supported the gradual increase through most of the year.

Fuel Oil Prices in Rotterdam in 2025

The Rotterdam benchmark climbed from about USD 500/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 522/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 4.4% for the year, tracking a steady, unremarkable path before the geopolitical disruption of early 2026 reshaped the wider market picture. Consistent barge availability throughout 2025 kept the European market comparatively calm.

Fuel Oil Prices in Fujairah in 2025

The Fujairah price climbed from about USD 478/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 498/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 4.2% for the year, in a steady climb before the sharper moves of early 2026. It was consistent demand from vessels navigating the Middle East corridor that supported the gradual increase through most of 2025.

Fuel Oil Prices in Houston in 2025

The Houston price climbed from about USD 450/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 468/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 4.0% for the year, tracking domestic crude cost movements in a comparatively steady climb. It was this same domestic focus that kept the market insulated from the geopolitical volatility that reshaped the international benchmarks in early 2026.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Fuel Oil Price Intelligence

Fuel Oil pricing depends heavily on what happens at a handful of shipping chokepoints, so Expert Market Research pays close attention to geopolitical risk around routes like the Strait of Hormuz alongside the more familiar drivers of crude cost differentials and refinery maintenance cycles across the four bunkering hubs covered here. This is combined with trade flow data and regional supply signals to build the forecasts. Reach out anytime for Fuel Oil pricing data, custom market analysis, or procurement strategy help.