Glycerine Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Glycerine provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Changes in worldwide demand and supply constraints have caused volatility in glycerine price trends. Due to a streamlined supply chain and increased biodiesel production, the latter half of 2022 saw a recovery in supply, which resulted in high stockpiles at the beginning of 2023. When comparing the fourth quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2023, the price of both crude and refined glycerine increased by up to 26%, suggesting a possible change in the dynamics of regional supply. In Q1 of 2025, leading ECH producers in Northeast Asia have reportedly seen a drop in operating rates as a result of the softening of ECH pricing, which has resulted muted demand of glycerine.

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The pharmaceutical industry continues to have a strong demand for glycerine, while the food and personal care sectors maintain a balanced demand. The shift towards sustainable solutions has driven the adoption of biodegradable and non-toxic glycerol derivatives like esters and fatty acids. In 2023, the food and beverages sector led demand, holding a 40% market share, while polyglycerol accounted for 30%, with its use in personal care and pharmaceutical formulations growing, influencing the market outlook.

Glycerine Price Forecast

Price fluctuations in the glycerine market are connected to biodiesel production, palm oil availability, and policy-driven demand for renewable fuels. As biodiesel production rebounds, crude glycerine availability would increase, hence stabilising prices. However, uncertainties such as regulatory changes, environmental conditions, and geopolitical factors continue to pose risks to price stability. Pricing trends are shifting towards sustainable glycerol derivatives, particularly in the food, pharmaceutical, and personal care sectors, which could influence price directions.

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The increased demand for bio-based products will likely sustain more favorable valuations for purified Glycerine and its derivatives, particularly with the investments of firms in green chemistry technology. The U.S. biodiesel industry will have a huge impact on glycerol prices as it competes with renewable diesel. These factors affecting the glycerine price forecast suggest that the increasing demand for glycerol and its high-value derivatives, such as polyglycerol and glycerol esters, are likely to drive prices higher in short term.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The global glycerine market is facing a strong price upsurge, which is caused by tight demand in the oleochemical market, supply shortages, and increased production costs. Major exporting nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia have seen an increase in their prices because of increased domestic and foreign demand. Importing Nations like Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are also experiencing increasing expenses due to supply chain disruptions such as the drought at the Panama Canal, lowered vessel traffic, and skyrocketing freight rates.

Furthermore, increasing palm oil prices, which is one of the main raw materials for glycerine manufacturing. Also, increasing use of green oleochemicals as a substitute for petroleum products is increasing demand further. With ongoing supply pressures and increasing shipping costs, market participants must closely monitor these trends to navigate the highly volatile market, which is impacting the global glycerine pricing analysis.

Feedstock Analysis

Fluctuations in petroleum prices have significantly impacted the cost of glycerine feedstocks, primarily due to their interlinked supply chains and shared raw materials. In August 2023, both refined glycerine and crude oil prices experienced simultaneous increases. Supply chain disruption, geopolitics in main oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and a universal push towards using renewable energy sources have made the world increasingly demand more biofuels. This increased demand for biofuels, in turn, boosted the usage of glycerine, hence propelling its price up.

By December 2024, glycerine prices had risen by about 25% from November, one of the sharpest monthly rises in years. The increase was due to winter demand and raw material shortages, especially in palm oil production. The strong demand forecast for glycerine indicates that the cosmetics sector, a major consumer of glycerine, was significantly impacted by production cost pressures, leading manufacturers to reassess their pricing strategies. These developments underscore the complex relationship between petroleum prices and glycerine feedstock costs.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Glycerine

The global glycerine market is poised for steady growth, driven by increasing demand for biofuels and sustainability-driven applications. A 28% rise in biofuel demand is predicted between 2021 and 2026, which would directly impact glycerine production. Government initiatives to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 are expected to boost demand further.

The glycerol-based product market is expected to experience a strong upward price trend, fueled by growing demand and industry trends towards sustainable and bio-based products. With market value expected to rise from USD 16.0 billion in 2023 to USD 28.4 billion by 2032, prices are anticipated to be driven by growing demand from the food and Pharma industry, where clean-label trends are driving the application of glycerol derivatives.

Furthermore, advancements in technology in the refining process and increased R&D expenditure in eco-friendly applications will drive cost savings and supply chain efficiency and, in turn, stabilise long-term prices. Nevertheless, price volatility can be expected in the short term because of market fluctuation, but trends overall point towards a steady rise in glycerol prices as dependence on its derivatives is further increasing. Econometric market analysis also suggests that continued volatility in upstream raw materials and policy variables will remain key influencers of glycerine pricing through 2025.

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What Our Reports Include:

Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.
• Visualisations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed industry analysis of current supply and demand trends, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.
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• Forecasted price trend analysis for glycerine for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical price analysis.
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