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Jet Kerosene Pricing, Aviation Demand, and Supply Outlook
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Jet kerosene prices in Germany, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 4.9% across 2025, climbing from USD 1.22/KG in Q1 to USD 1.28/KG by Q4 as the global commercial aviation recovery sustained steady demand. Globally, the average rose from USD 0.970/KG to USD 1.025/KG, a 5.7% gain. For the remainder of 2026, a global average of USD 1.02-1.14/KG is expected, with a lift from Middle East shipping disruptions and firmer crude oil values.
Jet kerosene, commonly referred to as aviation turbine fuel or ATF, is a refined petroleum product derived from the middle-distillate fraction of crude oil. The largest pull comes from commercial airline operations, followed by cargo aviation, military use, and charter services. Crude oil and naphtha costs, aviation sector flight activity, refinery throughput and margins, and seasonal travel demand all feed into the price. The sustained post-pandemic aviation recovery supported a steadily firming trend through the year.
Jet Kerosene Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of supply and demand for jet kerosene through the rest of 2026 leans firm. Commercial airline activity continues to recover, and Middle East shipping disruptions added freight and war-risk premiums to jet fuel supply chains in Q1 2026. Refinery maintenance cycles constrained output in key regions. The main upside risk is sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption and higher Brent crude values. The main downside risk is a demand slowdown from economic weakness or a sharp crude correction that eases production costs.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/KG) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 1.02 - 1.14 | Aviation recovery meets firm crude and freight costs |
| United States | 0.74 - 0.86 | Ample refinery output keeps it the most affordable source |
| China | 1.10 - 1.24 | Domestic aviation growth and tax structure keep it firm |
| Germany | 1.28 - 1.44 | High carbon and distribution costs keep it the most expensive |
| India | 0.98 - 1.12 | Growing domestic aviation demand and import costs hold a firm middle |
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Jet Kerosene Prices Q1 2026:
- United States: USD 0.76/KG
- China: USD 1.14/KG
- Germany: USD 1.34/KG
- India: USD 1.05/KG
Jet Kerosene Prices in the United States
US jet kerosene prices averaged USD 0.76/KG in Q1 2026, up 4.1% from USD 0.73/KG in Q4 2025, the lowest among the tracked markets. Severe Strait of Hormuz disruptions forced cargo rerouting, increasing freight and insurance costs. Rising Brent crude elevated replacement costs, and cold weather accelerated demand draws, prompting buyers to accept firmer spot offers.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Strait of Hormuz disruptions increased freight and insurance costs for jet fuel supply chains. Rising Brent crude elevated replacement costs and production expenses. Cold weather sustained heating and aviation demand draws, tightening prompt availability and supporting higher spot offers.
Jet Kerosene Prices in China
Chinese jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.14/KG in Q1 2026, up 4.6% from USD 1.09/KG in Q4 2025. Sustained domestic and international aviation operations supported procurement activity. Consistent refinery utilisation and structured supply arrangements maintained market balance, while firmer crude benchmarks lifted production costs through the quarter.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q1 2026 in China?
Sustained domestic and international aviation activity supported consistent procurement. Firmer crude benchmarks elevated production costs and ex-refinery offers. Structured supply arrangements and steady refinery output maintained market balance through the quarter.
Jet Kerosene Prices in Germany
German jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.34/KG in Q1 2026, up 4.7% from USD 1.28/KG in Q4 2025, the highest among the tracked markets. Strait of Hormuz disruptions forced rerouting, increasing freight and insurance costs for European jet fuel. Rising Brent crude elevated production costs, and cold weather plus PDH blending demand accelerated draws, prompting buyers to accept higher spot offers.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
Strait of Hormuz disruptions forced rerouting, increasing freight and insurance costs substantially. Rising Brent crude elevated replacement costs for European refiners. Cold weather and blending demand accelerated inventory draws, reinforcing the sharp quarterly price gain.
Jet Kerosene Prices in India
Indian jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.05/KG in Q1 2026, up 5.0% from USD 1.00/KG in Q4 2025. Air travel activity and airline fuel requirements strengthened through the quarter. Tight supply pressures from Middle East disruptions lifted import costs, and firmer crude benchmarks raised the production cost floor.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q1 2026 in India?
Strong air travel demand and firming airline procurement lifted buying activity through the quarter. Middle East supply disruptions increased import costs and tightened prompt availability. Firmer crude benchmarks elevated the production cost floor, reinforcing the quarterly price gain.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Jet Kerosene Prices Q4 2025:
- United States: USD 0.73/KG
- China: USD 1.09/KG
- Germany: USD 1.28/KG
- India: USD 1.00/KG
Jet Kerosene Prices in the United States
US jet kerosene prices averaged USD 0.73/KG in Q4 2025, firmer on the quarter. Strong holiday travel boosted airline fuel consumption, tightening prompt supply and supporting higher spot prices. Refiners prioritised margins and managed run rates carefully, limiting excess jet fuel availability. The average held near USD 0.73/KG into year-end.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q4 2025 in the United States?
Strong holiday travel boosted airline fuel consumption, tightening prompt supply. Refiner margin management limited excess production, and stable crude benchmarks sustained production costs near USD 0.73/KG into year-end.
Jet Kerosene Prices in China
Chinese jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.09/KG in Q4 2025, firmer on the quarter. Sustained demand from domestic and regional aviation operations supported procurement. Consistent refinery utilisation encouraged regular buying, and sourcing behaviour reflected inventory planning aligned with aviation fuel distribution needs near USD 1.09/KG.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q4 2025 in China?
Sustained domestic and regional aviation demand supported consistent procurement through the quarter. Refinery utilisation maintained balanced supply, holding the market near USD 1.09/KG into year-end.
Jet Kerosene Prices in Germany
German jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.28/KG in Q4 2025, the highest in the dataset. Seasonal air travel demand increased sharply as winter holidays lifted inventory drawdowns. Export flows and inter-regional arbitrage reduced prompt availability, and stable crude costs maintained elevated production expense levels near USD 1.28/KG.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q4 2025 in Germany?
Seasonal holiday air travel demand accelerated inventory drawdowns through the quarter. Export flows reduced prompt availability, while stable crude costs maintained elevated production expenses near USD 1.28/KG, the highest among the regions.
Jet Kerosene Prices in India
Indian jet kerosene prices averaged USD 1.00/KG in Q4 2025, firmer on the quarter. Air travel activity and airline fuel requirements strengthened as the seasonal travel period advanced. Steady procurement from commercial aviation and consistent import flows supported the average near USD 1.00/KG into year-end.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in Q4 2025 in India?
Firming air travel demand and airline procurement supported prices through the quarter. Consistent import flows maintained supply balance, holding the market near USD 1.00/KG into year-end.
Quarterly Jet Kerosene Price Trends
Global jet kerosene prices firmed steadily across the six-quarter window, reflecting the sustained aviation demand recovery. The average rose from USD 0.970/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.985/KG by Q2, USD 1.002/KG by Q3, USD 1.025/KG in Q4, and reached USD 1.073/KG by Q1 2026, a net gain of about 10.6% across the window. Commercial aviation recovery, seasonal travel demand, and Middle East geopolitical tensions drove the consistent upward trend.
| Quarter | Price (USD/KG) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q1 2026 | 1.073 | +4.7% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 1.025 | +2.3% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 1.002 | +1.7% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 0.985 | +1.5% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2025 | 0.970 | - | - Stable |
| Q2 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Jet Kerosene Price in 2025?
Jet kerosene prices firmed steadily through 2025 on the back of sustained aviation recovery. The global average opened at USD 0.970/KG in Q1 and closed near USD 1.025/KG in Q4, a full-year gain of about 5.7%. Three forces shaped the year. The sustained commercial aviation recovery from the post-pandemic trough lifted consistent procurement from airlines, seasonal travel demand created strong Q3 and Q4 draw-down cycles, and refinery margin management limited excess jet fuel output.
Jet Kerosene Prices in the United States in 2025
US prices firmed from about USD 0.68/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.73/KG by Q4, a gain of 7.4%, the strongest in the dataset. Steady domestic airline activity and strong holiday travel drove the consistent climb. Ample refinery output kept the US the most affordable market throughout the year.
Jet Kerosene Prices in China in 2025
Chinese prices firmed from roughly USD 1.02/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.09/KG by Q4, a gain of 6.9%. Sustained domestic and regional aviation activity drove consistent procurement all year. Structured refinery supply arrangements and growing passenger traffic supported a gradual upward trend.
Jet Kerosene Prices in Germany in 2025
German prices firmed from about USD 1.22/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.28/KG by Q4, a gain of 4.9%. High carbon distribution costs and seasonal travel peaks in Q3 and Q4 supported the market. Germany maintained the highest price level in the dataset throughout the year.
Jet Kerosene Prices in India in 2025
Indian prices firmed from roughly USD 0.95/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.00/KG by Q4, a gain of 5.3%. Growing domestic air travel demand and expanding airline routes supported consistent buying. Import costs remained firm, aligned with Middle East crude benchmarks.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Jet Kerosene Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks jet kerosene prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. We explain not just that prices moved, but precisely why. The team traces causation through crude oil and refinery economics, commercial aviation demand cycles, seasonal travel patterns, and Middle East supply dynamics. Contact Expert Market Research today for jet kerosene pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
Commercial airline operations take the largest share, followed by cargo aviation, military use, and charter services. Aviation turbine fuel directly powers aircraft engines, making commercial airline activity the primary demand driver globally.
The Q1 2026 average was USD 0.76/KG in the United States, USD 1.14/KG in China, USD 1.34/KG in Germany, and USD 1.05/KG in India, mostly on a contract to delivered basis. Germany remains the highest-priced market on high carbon and distribution costs.
The global average rose from USD 0.970/KG in Q1 2025 to about USD 1.025/KG in Q4, a full-year gain of around 5.7%. The sustained aviation recovery and seasonal travel demand drove the consistent climb across all regions.
Three factors drove the gains: the sustained post-pandemic commercial aviation recovery, strong seasonal travel demand creating Q3 and Q4 draw-down cycles, and disciplined refinery margin management that limited excess jet fuel availability.
The global average is expected in the USD 1.02 to 1.14/KG range for the rest of 2026, assuming commercial aviation activity stays firm while Middle East supply disruptions continue to elevate freight and crude premiums.
Germany sits highest on carbon taxes and distribution costs, China and India hold a firm middle on aviation activity and import costs, and the United States prices lowest on ample refinery output and lower regulatory cost burdens.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
Prices respond mainly to crude oil and naphtha costs, commercial aviation flight activity, refinery throughput and margins, and seasonal travel demand. Geopolitical events and shipping disruptions can cause sharp regional price spikes within a single quarter.
The Middle East, the United States, and Asia Pacific host the largest refining capacity, with the US a major exporter and the Middle East supplying Asia and Europe. Because output is tied to crude oil refining, any feedstock or refinery shift ripples across markets within weeks.
Airlines and fuel managers can use quarterly trends and forecasts to time hedging positions, choose between fixed-price and index-linked supply, and build cover when crude or Middle East risk signals higher costs ahead. Regional price gaps also help route planners weigh alternative fuelling locations.
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