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Naphtha Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Naphtha prices in India, the highest-cost importing region, fell 18.6% across 2025, declining from USD 0.70/KG in Q1 to USD 0.57/KG by Q4 as crude oil softness and weak petrochemical cracker demand weighed on markets globally. Globally, the average fell from USD 0.635/KG to USD 0.538/KG, a 15.3% decline. For the remainder of 2026, a global average of USD 0.58-0.72/KG is expected, with continued recovery on firmer crude and Middle East supply premiums.
Naphtha is a light petroleum fraction produced during the refining of crude oil, classified into light paraffinic and heavy aromatic grades. The largest pull comes from steam cracker feedstock for ethylene and propylene production, followed by gasoline blending, reforming for aromatic production, and solvent applications. Crude oil and brent benchmarks, petrochemical cracker operating rates, refinery throughput, and gasoline blending demand all feed into the price.
Naphtha Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of supply and demand for naphtha through the rest of 2026 is firming after the sharp 2025 decline. Strait of Hormuz disruptions elevated freight and insurance costs for Asian importers in Q1 2026, while European refinery maintenance constrained local supply. The main upside risk is sustained Middle East geopolitical disruption and firmer crude values. The main downside risk is OPEC+ production increases flooding global crude markets and weakening the naphtha price floor.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/KG) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 0.58 - 0.72 | Recovery on firmer crude and Middle East supply premiums |
| United States | 0.52 - 0.66 | Ample Gulf Coast refinery output keeps it the most affordable |
| China | 0.60 - 0.74 | Steady cracker demand supports a firm middle |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.58 - 0.72 | FOB export pricing tracks crude benchmarks |
| India | 0.58 - 0.72 | Import dependency and freight premiums keep landed costs elevated |
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Naphtha Prices Q1 2026:
- United States: USD 0.58/KG
- China: USD 0.65/KG
- Saudi Arabia: USD 0.63/KG
- India: USD 0.62/KG
Naphtha Prices in the United States
US naphtha prices averaged USD 0.58/KG in Q1 2026, up 16.0% from USD 0.50/KG in Q4 2025, the lowest among the tracked markets. Reduced Gulf Coast refinery throughput from seasonal maintenance tightened prompt availability. Rising crude benchmarks and geopolitical disruption premiums elevated production costs, supporting the sharp quarterly recovery.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Reduced Gulf Coast refinery throughput from seasonal maintenance tightened domestic supply. Rising crude benchmarks elevated production costs, while geopolitical disruption premiums increased import logistics costs. Petrochemical and gasoline blending demand absorbed available volumes, reinforcing the quarterly recovery.
Naphtha Prices in China
Chinese naphtha prices averaged USD 0.65/KG in Q1 2026, up 12.1% from USD 0.58/KG in Q4 2025, the highest among the tracked markets. Middle East shipping disruptions tightened import availability for Chinese crackers, which depend heavily on Gulf-origin naphtha. Steady steam cracker operating rates maintained firm procurement through the quarter.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q1 2026 in China?
Middle East shipping disruptions tightened import availability from the dominant origin for Chinese crackers. Steady steam cracker operating rates maintained firm procurement throughout. Rising crude benchmarks elevated production and transport costs, reinforcing the quarterly recovery from 2025 lows.
Naphtha Prices in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabian naphtha export prices averaged USD 0.63/KG in Q1 2026, up 21.2% from USD 0.52/KG in Q4 2025. Freight and war-risk insurance premiums elevated transaction costs through Gulf shipping lanes. Asian cracker buyers competed aggressively for available cargoes as disruptions reduced overall cargo flows.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q1 2026 in Saudi Arabia?
Freight and war-risk insurance premiums elevated FOB transaction costs substantially. Asian cracker buyers competed aggressively for available cargoes amid reduced Gulf cargo flows. Firmer crude benchmarks elevated production costs, reinforcing the sharp quarterly gain.
Naphtha Prices in India
Indian naphtha prices averaged USD 0.62/KG in Q1 2026, up 8.8% from USD 0.57/KG in Q4 2025. Strait of Hormuz disruptions constrained Middle East import flows, the dominant source for Indian refineries and crackers. Elevated freight and insurance premiums lifted landed costs, supporting the quarterly recovery despite subdued downstream cracker demand.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q1 2026 in India?
Strait of Hormuz disruptions constrained Middle East import flows, reducing cargo availability. Elevated freight and insurance premiums lifted landed costs substantially. Downstream cracker demand remained moderate, limiting the extent of the recovery versus more disrupted markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Naphtha Prices Q4 2025:
- United States: USD 0.50/KG
- China: USD 0.58/KG
- Saudi Arabia: USD 0.52/KG
- India: USD 0.57/KG
Naphtha Prices in the United States
US naphtha prices averaged USD 0.50/KG in Q4 2025, declining further on the quarter. Soft crude oil prices and limited gasoline blending activity kept the market under downward pressure. High domestic inventories pressured spot prices, while petrochemical buyers maintained stable but cautious offtake, holding the average near USD 0.50/KG.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q4 2025 in the United States?
Soft crude oil prices and limited gasoline blending activity kept the market under downward pressure. High domestic inventories and cautious petrochemical buyer procurement held the market near USD 0.50/KG, the lowest among the regions.
Naphtha Prices in China
Chinese naphtha prices averaged USD 0.58/KG in Q4 2025, declining modestly on the quarter. Weakened downstream petrochemical cracker demand and sufficient import availability from the Middle East and Southeast Asia maintained comfortable supply. Softer crude benchmarks reduced the production cost floor, holding the average near USD 0.58/KG.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q4 2025 in China?
Weakened cracker demand met adequate import availability, easing prices. Softer crude benchmarks reduced the production cost floor, holding the market near USD 0.58/KG.
Naphtha Prices in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabian naphtha export prices averaged USD 0.52/KG in Q4 2025, declining on the quarter. Subdued global cracker demand and balanced supply maintained a competitive export environment. Freight conditions remained stable, enabling consistent shipments to Asian and European destinations, holding prices near USD 0.52/KG.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q4 2025 in Saudi Arabia?
Subdued global cracker demand and balanced supply maintained competitive export conditions. Stable freight rates and ample Middle East refinery output held the market near USD 0.52/KG.
Naphtha Prices in India
Indian naphtha prices averaged USD 0.57/KG in Q4 2025, declining on the quarter. Subdued downstream cracker and reforming sector demand reduced procurement urgency. Adequate import availability from Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian sources maintained comfortable supply near USD 0.57/KG into year-end.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in Q4 2025 in India?
Subdued cracker and reforming demand met adequate import availability, pressing prices lower. Soft crude benchmarks reduced the import parity floor, holding the market near USD 0.57/KG into year-end.
Quarterly Naphtha Price Trends
Global naphtha prices rose briefly in Q2 2025 before declining sharply through Q3 and Q4, then recovering strongly in Q1 2026. The average rose from USD 0.635/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.650/KG in Q2, then fell to USD 0.565/KG in Q3 and USD 0.538/KG in Q4. A strong recovery to USD 0.616/KG in Q1 2026 reduced the net decline across the window to about 3.0%. Crude oil softness and weak cracker demand drove the extended decline before Middle East disruptions triggered the Q1 2026 rebound.
| Quarter | Price (USD/KG) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q1 2026 | 0.616 | +14.5% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 0.538 | -4.8% | ↓ Falling |
| Q3 2025 | 0.565 | -13.1% | ↓ Falling |
| Q2 2025 | 0.650 | +2.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2025 | 0.635 | - | - Stable |
| Q2 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Naphtha Price in 2025?
Naphtha prices declined sharply through 2025. The global average opened at USD 0.635/KG in Q1, rose modestly to USD 0.650/KG in Q2, then fell to USD 0.538/KG by Q4, a full-year decline of about 15.3%. Three forces shaped the year. Crude oil price weakness reduced the naphtha production cost floor across all regions, weak petrochemical cracker demand limited feedstock procurement, and high domestic inventories at key hub terminals pressured spot prices through the summer and autumn.
Naphtha Prices in the United States in 2025
US prices fell from about USD 0.63/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.50/KG by Q4, a decline of 20.6%, the steepest in the dataset. Ample Gulf Coast refinery output and soft crude markets maintained comfortable availability all year. Limited gasoline blending activity added to the surplus.
Naphtha Prices in China in 2025
Chinese prices fell from roughly USD 0.66/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.58/KG by Q4, a decline of 12.1%. Adequate import flows and subdued cracker operating rates maintained comfortable availability. The market held the highest price level among the tracked regions in several quarters on strong underlying cracker demand.
Naphtha Prices in Saudi Arabia in 2025
Saudi Arabian export prices fell from about USD 0.64/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.52/KG by Q4, a decline of 18.8%. Balanced global supply and subdued buyer demand kept FOB export prices under consistent downward pressure. The competitive Middle East export market maintained ample cargo flows to Asian destinations.
Naphtha Prices in India in 2025
Indian prices fell from roughly USD 0.70/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.57/KG by Q4, a decline of 18.6%. Lower import parity from softer crude benchmarks and adequate Middle East import availability reduced landed costs all year. India held the highest price level in the dataset through most of 2025 as an import-dependent market.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Naphtha Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks naphtha prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. We explain not just that prices moved, but precisely why. The team traces causation through crude oil and refinery economics, petrochemical cracker demand cycles, gasoline blending activity, and Middle East and Russian supply dynamics. Contact Expert Market Research today for naphtha pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
Steam cracker feedstock for ethylene and propylene production takes the largest share of global naphtha consumption. It is also widely used in gasoline blending, catalytic reforming for aromatic production, and industrial solvent applications. Petrochemical cracker demand drives most of the global pricing.
The Q1 2026 average was USD 0.58/KG in the United States, USD 0.65/KG in China, USD 0.63/KG in Saudi Arabia, and USD 0.62/KG in India, mostly on a FOB to CIF basis. China moved to the highest-priced market in Q1 2026 on Middle East import tightness.
The global average fell from USD 0.635/KG in Q1 2025 to about USD 0.538/KG in Q4, a full-year decline of around 15.3%. Crude oil softness, weak cracker demand, and high hub inventories drove the consistent decline.
Three factors dominated: crude oil price weakness that reduced the production cost floor, weak petrochemical cracker demand that limited feedstock procurement, and high domestic inventories at key hub terminals that pressured spot prices through the summer and autumn.
The global average is expected in the USD 0.58 to 0.72/KG range for the rest of 2026, with continued recovery as Middle East disruption premiums hold and petrochemical cracker demand gradually improves from 2025 lows.
China and India sit highest on import dependency and freight premiums, Saudi Arabia prices competitively as an FOB exporter, and the United States prices lowest on ample Gulf Coast refinery output and domestic supply.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
Prices respond mainly to crude oil benchmarks, petrochemical cracker operating rates, gasoline blending activity, and refinery throughput levels. Middle East geopolitical events and crude production changes from OPEC+ can cause sharp price moves within weeks.
The Middle East, North America, and Asia Pacific host the largest refining capacity. The Middle East is the dominant export region, supplying Asian crackers that depend on seaborne cargoes. Any refinery outage or crude oil supply change ripples across naphtha markets quickly.
Buyers can use quarterly trends and forecasts to time feedstock contracts, choose between fixed-price and crude-linked supply agreements, and build cover when Middle East or crude signals suggest tightening. Regional price gaps also help teams weigh sourcing alternatives.
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