Olive Oil Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

• Global extra-virgin olive oil prices reversed sharply from multi-year highs through 2025, with the quarterly average falling from USD 7,400/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,200/MT by Q4, a decline of 16.2%, as Mediterranean harvest volumes recovered significantly following three consecutive drought-impacted seasons in Spain and other key producing countries.
• Spain, the world's largest olive oil producer, led the price correction with the Jaen and Andalusia harvest recovering to near-normal volumes, driving Spanish bulk extra-virgin prices from USD 7,200/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,050/MT by Q4 and contributing the most to the global downward price trend.
• Italy maintained a premium over Spain throughout 2025, with bulk extra-virgin prices declining more slowly from USD 7,650/MT in Q1 to USD 6,550/MT by Q4, supported by Italy's structurally lower domestic production relative to demand and the persistent premium commanded by Italian-origin certified designation of origin grades.
• North American import prices for extra-virgin olive oil lagged the European correction by one to two quarters, declining from USD 8,050/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,820/MT by Q4, as long-term supply contracts with Mediterranean exporters delayed the pass-through of falling origin prices into US import costs.
• The olive oil market outlook for the remainder of 2026 is for continued gradual price normalisation, with global extra-virgin bulk prices expected to settle in the USD 5,400-6,500/MT range as Mediterranean production continues to recover and residual demand destruction from record-high prices gradually reverses.

What Is Olive Oil and Why Does It Matter?

Olive oil is a vegetable fat extracted from the fruit of the olive tree (Olea europaea), consumed as a food, used as a pharmaceutical excipient, and increasingly utilised in cosmetics and personal care formulations. It is commercially classified into grades based on acidity and production method: extra-virgin (free acidity below 0.8%, cold-pressed without chemical refinement), virgin, refined, and pomace grades. Extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) commands the highest prices and represents the benchmark grade for global bulk trade, reflecting its superior sensory quality, polyphenol content, and health-associated attributes.

From a supply perspective, olive oil is one of the most geographically concentrated commodity foods in the world. Spain alone accounts for approximately 40-45% of global production, with the remainder concentrated in Italy (roughly 15-20%), Greece (approximately 10%), Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, and a handful of other Mediterranean countries. This concentration means that Spanish harvest conditions - and particularly rainfall patterns in Andalusia, which contributes roughly 80% of Spanish output - have an outsized influence on global supply and price dynamics.

From a market perspective, olive oil prices matter across a remarkably wide stakeholder universe: food manufacturers formulating dressings, spreads, and ready meals; food service operators managing ingredient costs; cosmetics companies sourcing high-purity grades for skincare applications; and retail buyers managing premium food category economics. The extraordinary price spike of 2022-2024 - driven by consecutive Mediterranean droughts - brought olive oil to the front of commodity price conversations that had previously been dominated by cereals, vegetable oils, and protein crops.

Which Sectors Are Driving Olive Oil Demand?

Food Manufacturing and Retail: The largest demand segment globally. Retail packaged olive oil - across premium branded, private label, and mass-market segments - drives the bulk of volume in Europe and is a rapidly growing category in North America, China, and Japan. Food manufacturers use bulk grades for dressings, sauces, marinades, and ready meal formulations. The 2022-2024 price spike caused significant consumer trading-down to refined grades and competing vegetable oils, a demand destruction effect that is gradually reversing as prices normalise.

Food Service and Hospitality: Restaurants, hotels, and catering operations represent a significant demand pool for bulk olive oil, particularly in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and premium food service globally. The sector was disproportionately affected by the price spike, with many operators switching to blended or alternative oils to manage menu costs. Recovery in food service olive oil demand is expected to lag the retail sector as operators prioritise margin preservation over ingredient premiumisation.

Cosmetics and Personal Care: High-purity extra-virgin and refined olive oil grades are used in premium skincare, hair care, and personal care formulations for their emollient properties and polyphenol content. This segment is structurally growing as the global clean-beauty movement drives demand for natural, single-origin botanical ingredients. The cosmetic application commands higher price premiums than food-grade uses and is less price-sensitive to commodity price movements.

Pharmaceutical and Nutraceuticals: Pharmacopeial-grade olive oil is used as a pharmaceutical excipient in parenteral emulsions and drug delivery systems, and standardised polyphenol extracts from olive fruit and leaves are increasingly incorporated into nutraceutical supplements. The health-functional demand segment is structurally growing driven by mounting clinical evidence supporting the cardiometabolic benefits of Mediterranean diet adherence.

Emerging Market Consumption Growth: Per-capita olive oil consumption in China, Brazil, Australia, and other non-traditional markets has grown significantly over the past decade as health and culinary awareness of Mediterranean diet products expands. While these markets represent a modest share of current global consumption, their growth trajectories represent the most significant structural demand expansion in the global olive oil market over the medium term.

Global Olive Oil Price Trend in 2025

Global extra-virgin olive oil prices entered 2025 at historically elevated levels following three consecutive Mediterranean drought years that had reduced global supply by 20-30% below long-run averages. The correction through 2025 was driven primarily by a significant recovery in Spanish production volumes - the 2024-2025 harvest in Andalusia was estimated at 130-140% of the prior season - combined with inventory normalisation and a gradual reversal of the demand destruction that had accumulated during the peak price period.

The global quarterly average for extra-virgin bulk olive oil fell from USD 7,400/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,200/MT by Q4, a decline of 16.2%. The correction accelerated in Q3 2025 as early harvest reports from Spain confirmed a substantially above-average crop, triggering pre-emptive selling by Spanish oil holders and forward pricing adjustments by European buyers. Q1 2026 saw further normalisation to USD 5,800/MT.

What characterises 2025 is a price normalisation rather than a price crash. Even at USD 6,200/MT in Q4 2025, global extra-virgin prices remained significantly above the 2015-2021 historical average range of USD 2,500-3,500/MT. The structural factors that drove the 2022-2024 spike - ageing grove infrastructure, climate sensitivity of rain-fed Andalusian production, and growing global demand - have not reversed. The market is correcting from an extreme, not returning to a pre-stress baseline.

What Were Spain's Olive Oil Price Trends in 2025?

Spain is both the world's largest olive oil producer and the most important benchmark for global bulk extra-virgin prices. The 2025 price correction was fundamentally a Spanish supply story: the 2024-2025 crop year delivered an Andalusian harvest estimated at 950,000-1,050,000 tonnes, roughly double the drought-affected 2023-2024 output of approximately 520,000 tonnes. That supply recovery, combined with normalising inventory levels across Spanish mills and cooperatives, drove Spanish bulk prices into sustained decline from Q2 2025 onwards.

Spanish bulk extra-virgin olive oil prices fell from USD 7,200/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,050/MT by Q4, a decline of 16.0%. The sharpest quarterly drop was in Q3 2025 at 8.1%, when early harvest data confirmed the above-average crop and forward selling pressure intensified. Q4 2025 saw a more measured decline as the new season oil began entering storage and buyers started rebuilding depleted working inventories at the lower price levels.

Spanish olive oil cooperatives and private mills that had been holding inventory from the 2023-2024 season in anticipation of further price appreciation faced mounting pressure to sell as new-season oil arrived and storage costs escalated. The combination of inventory liquidation and new crop pressure in Q3-Q4 created more intense downward momentum than origin supply recovery alone would have generated.

Italian Olive Oil Price Trends in 2025

Italy occupies a distinct position in the global olive oil market as both the world's second-largest producer and its most influential brand equity holder for premium designations of origin. Italian olive oil prices consistently trade at a premium to Spanish equivalents, reflecting the concentration of DOP and IGP certified grades, Italy's role as a major blending and re-export hub, and the global consumer premiumisation of Italian-origin food products across all categories.

Italian bulk extra-virgin prices declined from USD 7,650/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,550/MT by Q4, a fall of 14.4%, a somewhat shallower correction than Spain's. This relative resilience reflected two factors: Italy's domestic harvest was below the Spanish recovery pace, and the premium commanded by certified Italian-origin oil provides a partial buffer against the downward price pull from the broader Mediterranean correction.

Italian producers supplying premium retail channels - particularly DOP Toscano, DOP Sicilia, and Liguria grades - maintained stronger pricing power than commodity bulk sellers. The premium segment proved relatively resilient through the correction, as consumers of high-end certified Italian oil showed limited price elasticity. Commodity-grade Italian bulk, however, converged toward Spanish price levels as the global supply recovery made origin differentiation less commercially sustainable at the margin.

North America Olive Oil Price Trends in 2025

North America is the world's largest import market for olive oil outside the Mediterranean producing region, and its price dynamics reflect the structural premium that freight, import duties, and distribution costs add to European origin prices. US prices for extra-virgin olive oil (measured at the importer level for bulk) consistently trade USD 500-800/MT above the Spanish equivalent. The lag in the US price correction relative to Europe reflects the prevalence of long-term supply contracts between Mediterranean exporters and US importers, which delay the pass-through of spot price movements.

North American import prices for bulk extra-virgin olive oil declined from USD 8,050/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,820/MT by Q4, a fall of 15.3%. The correction lagged Europe by approximately one quarter - Q3 2025 saw only a 5.8% decline versus Spain's 8.1% - as existing contract commitments limited buyers' ability to benefit immediately from falling origin prices. Q1 2026 saw further normalisation to USD 6,400/MT.

US retail olive oil prices lagged the import price correction by a further one to two quarters, as branded manufacturers and private label programs were slow to pass through origin cost reductions to consumers. Category data through 2025 showed US olive oil volumes recovering modestly from the demand destruction of the peak price period, particularly in the private label segment where price sensitivity is highest. Branded olive oil volumes remained constrained by consumer pricing perception that had been reset during the crisis years.

North Africa Olive Oil Price Trends in 2025

North Africa - principally Tunisia and Morocco - represents a growing and increasingly commercially significant tier of the global olive oil supply chain. Both countries have substantially expanded grove plantings over the past decade, and Tunisia in particular is now regularly among the top five global producers. North African bulk extra-virgin oil prices trade at a discount to Spanish equivalents, reflecting differences in grade consistency, certification infrastructure, and the absence of European designated origin protections.

North African bulk extra-virgin prices (weighted Tunisia-Morocco average) fell from USD 6,800/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 5,650/MT by Q4, a decline of 16.9% that slightly outpaced the global correction, reflecting both the recovery of North African harvests from modest drought impacts and increased competition from Spanish oil in Italy and the broader European import market. Q1 2026 saw further easing to USD 5,280/MT.

Tunisian and Moroccan exporters face a structural challenge as prices normalise: their competitive advantage is primarily price-based, and as Spanish commodity grade prices fall, the spread that North African oil commands compresses. European buyers who added North African sourcing during the Spanish shortage are reverting to Spanish origin as volumes recover, creating selling pressure for Tunisian and Moroccan exporters.

What Factors Drove Olive Oil Costs in 2025?

• Mediterranean harvest recovery. The dominant driver of 2025 price decline was the significant recovery of Spanish Andalusian olive production from the crisis lows of 2022-2024. The 2024-2025 crop year delivered an estimated total EU-Mediterranean harvest of approximately 2.8-3.0 million tonnes, roughly 35-40% above the drought-affected prior season. This supply recovery was the primary force behind the sustained quarterly price corrections seen across all regions.
• Demand destruction reversal. Two consecutive years of record olive oil prices drove measurable consumer substitution toward sunflower, canola, and blended vegetable oil products in both retail and food manufacturing. Through 2025, only a partial reversal of this substitution occurred even as prices fell, because consumer habits formed during the crisis period are sticky and brand relaunching after reformulation takes time and marketing investment.
• Inventory and speculative unwinding. Significant speculative inventory had been built across the supply chain during the peak price period by both trade buyers anticipating further appreciation and producers holding back oil from sale. As the 2025 correction took hold, this inventory was liquidated in a disorderly fashion through Q3 and Q4, amplifying the downward price pressure beyond what supply fundamentals alone would have warranted.
• Competition from alternative vegetable oils. Sunflower oil prices remained competitive through 2025 as Black Sea supply normalised following the prior period of war-related disruptions. Canola and palm oil prices also softened, maintaining competitive price alternatives for both retail consumers and food manufacturers considering whether to reincorporate olive oil into formulations. The availability of cheaper substitutes slowed the demand recovery for olive oil following the price correction.
• North African production expansion. Morocco and Tunisia continued to expand harvested grove area through 2025, adding incremental supply to the European and global bulk market. This structural supply growth from non-EU producers provides a more competitive floor to the global olive oil market over the medium term and is a factor that will limit the extent of future price recoveries during the next Mediterranean drought cycle.
• Currency and import parity effects. A strengthening USD through H1 2025 made euro-denominated Mediterranean olive oil imports incrementally more expensive for US buyers before the trend partially reversed in H2. Conversely, Japanese and South Korean buyers benefited from stronger USD pricing as their yen-denominated import costs fell with local currency depreciation, partly offsetting olive oil price declines in local currency terms.

Olive Oil Market Forecast for 2026

The olive oil market forecast for the remainder of 2026 is for continued gradual price normalisation, with the pace of correction expected to slow as global prices approach levels that more accurately reflect medium-run production costs. The key assumption underpinning the base case is that Mediterranean harvest conditions in 2025-2026 remain at or above average - which early spring rainfall data in Spain and Italy suggests is a reasonable expectation - allowing the multi-year supply deficit to continue closing.

The primary risk to the downside of the forecast is a sharper-than-expected demand recovery as consumers re-engage with olive oil at more accessible price levels, which would absorb supply more quickly and limit the depth of the correction. On the upside risk side, a return of drought conditions to Andalusia - which remains structurally vulnerable to climate variability - could trigger a rapid supply shortfall that reverses 12-18 months of price correction within a single quarter.

Expected Olive Oil Price Range (remainder of 2026)

Italy is expected to maintain its premium over Spain throughout the forecast period. North America will continue to trade above Mediterranean origin prices, reflecting import cost structures. North Africa is expected to remain the lowest-cost internationally traded origin, limiting the competitive floor for Spanish commodity-grade sales in key European import markets.

Key Analyst Insights for the Olive Oil Market

Olive oil is correcting from an extraordinary price spike, and 2025-2026 represent a normalisation rather than a structural bear market. Several dynamics are shaping how deep and sustained the correction will be.

• The structural supply base has permanently changed. Three consecutive drought years accelerated the shift of olive oil from a supply-stable commodity to a climate-volatile one. The market has re-rated the probability of supply disruptions permanently upward, meaning a higher structural price floor than the 2015-2021 historical average is now appropriate even in years of good harvests.
• Demand destruction is only partially reversible. Consumer habits formed during two years of record prices are sticky. Food manufacturers that reformulated away from olive oil face the cost and time burden of reverting. Retail chain of custody pricing structures mean consumer price reductions lag origin moves by 2-4 quarters. The demand base that returns will be smaller than the one that existed pre-crisis.
• North African supply is structurally growing and will constrain future price spikes. Moroccan and Tunisian grove expansion programmes underway through 2025-2030 will add 200,000-400,000 tonnes of potential annual production to the global supply pool by the end of the decade. This structural supply addition will act as a ceiling on future price spikes, as North African producers can mobilise export volumes faster than European ones.
• Italian premium is durable but requires investment to defend. The DOP and IGP certification advantage of Italian olive oil is real but requires continuous investment in traceability, quality consistency, and geographic authentication to maintain consumer price premium. Italian producers who maintain this investment will outperform commodity market prices across every stage of the next price cycle.
• The US retail olive oil market is in a structural recovery phase. US consumer olive oil volumes are recovering from crisis-period lows, but branded recovery will take longer than private label recovery. The category management decisions made by US retail buyers over 2026-2027 - particularly around shelf space allocation and private label programme structures - will determine whether US demand recovers to pre-crisis trend levels.
• Climate risk is now priced into Mediterranean olive oil permanently. The extraordinary price volatility of 2022-2025 has permanently raised the risk premium embedded in olive oil pricing. Buyers, sellers, and financiers of olive oil now factor in drought tail risks more explicitly than they did before the crisis. That risk premium will not fully deflate even in years of abundant harvests.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Manufacturers

For Buyers

• Use the current price correction window to rebuild strategic inventory at normalised cost levels. Two years of record pricing forced many buyers to run lean; the 2026 price range represents a historically appropriate level at which to rebuild commercial buffers while managing the downside risk of a future supply disruption.
• Qualify North African origin supply as a cost management tool. Moroccan and Tunisian extra-virgin bulk oil is now available at a 10-15% discount to Spanish equivalents with improving consistency. For applications where geographic origin designation is not required, dual-qualification of North African supply provides meaningful cost flexibility.
• Negotiate supply contracts with climate contingency provisions. Given the demonstrated volatility of Mediterranean olive oil supply, long-term supply agreements should include pricing mechanisms that explicitly address the risk of weather-driven production shortfalls, rather than relying on fixed-price structures that create commercial conflict when market conditions diverge sharply from contracted terms.
• Monitor Spanish harvest condition reports from August onwards. The Andalusian olive crop year's trajectory becomes visible from August through October each year, and buyers who move to adjust inventory and procurement positions based on early harvest signals will consistently outperform those who wait for price moves to materialise in spot markets.

For Manufacturers

• Italian DOP/IGP producers should invest in digital authentication and traceability technology. Consumer interest in certified origin verification is growing, and producers who can deliver digitally verifiable provenance - through QR codes, blockchain supply chain records, or third-party authentication - will command sustained price premiums over the medium term.
• Spanish cooperatives should rebuild financial reserves during the current price recovery period. The working capital and liquidity buffers built during the high-price years should be maintained and not distributed, as the probability of a future drought year with significant production shortfall remains structurally elevated.
• Olive oil processors entering the premium cosmetics and nutraceutical markets should invest in quality specification differentiation. Medical-grade and cosmetic-grade olive oil commands substantially higher margins than food-grade equivalents and provides a partial hedge against food commodity price cycles.
• North African producers should invest in certification infrastructure. The primary barrier to North African olive oil commanding European price equivalents is not quality - it is certification infrastructure and geographic authentication. Investment in EU-recognised quality management systems would substantially increase commercial value per tonne.