Olive Oil Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Olive Oil prices in the United States, the highest-cost reporting region given its heavy reliance on imported supply, fell 2.3% in Q2 2026 to USD 6,154.00/MT from USD 6,300.00/MT in Q1, continuing a sharp multi-quarter correction from 2024's crisis-level highs. Italian prices fell 1.8% to USD 4,028.00/MT, extending a decline that saw prices drop 12.69% between January and March 2026 alone as improved southern European harvests corrected prior supply shortages. Globally, the average fell from USD 4,582.00/MT in Q1 to USD 4,494.40/MT in Q2, a 1.9% decline, following a steep 8.9% drop in Q1. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 3,900.00-5,200.00/MT is expected, with prices likely to remain relatively stable barring major weather disruptions.

Olive Oil is an edible oil extracted from pressed olives, produced predominantly across Mediterranean growing regions including Spain, Italy, Greece, and Tunisia, with the United States remaining heavily import-dependent, sourcing over 95 percent of its consumption and nearly 86 percent from Mediterranean origins. This market experienced one of the most dramatic multi-year price cycles of any agricultural commodity tracked in this report, with drought-driven shortages pushing prices to historic highs in 2024 before improved harvesting conditions across southern Europe corrected the supply shortfall and drove a sustained correction through 2025 and into 2026. Global production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at around 3.4 million tonnes, remaining above recent historical averages despite a slight decline from the previous season. Mediterranean harvest yields and weather conditions, freight and transport costs, and global consumption recovery patterns are what drive prices in this market.

Olive Oil Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Olive Oil through H2 2026 points to relative stability with normal regional fluctuations, barring major weather disruptions. Global production for the 2025/26 season, forecast at around 3.4 million tonnes, remains above recent historical averages despite a slight decline from the previous season, and consumption is expected to recover gradually as prices ease from earlier highs, with improved Mediterranean supply helping maintain balanced market conditions.

The main upside risk is a renewed weather disruption to Mediterranean harvests or a further escalation of Middle East conflict affecting crude oil and freight costs, either of which could interrupt the current correction. The main downside risk is a larger-than-expected 2025/26 harvest combined with continued cautious buying by major consumers, which could extend the price declines seen through Q1 2026 further into the back half of the year.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Olive Oil Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 6,154.00/MT
• Italy: USD 4,028.00/MT
• Greece: USD 3,700.00/MT
• Spain: USD 3,800.00/MT

Olive Oil Prices in the United States

US Olive Oil prices averaged USD 6,154.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, down 2.3% from USD 6,300.00/MT in Q1, continuing the correction from 2024's crisis-level highs given this market's heavy import dependency.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

The US still depends heavily on imported supplies for over 95 percent of its consumption, with almost 86 percent of supplies coming from Mediterranean regions, meaning the correction in origin-market prices continued flowing through to this import-dependent market.

Olive Oil Prices in Italy

Italian prices averaged USD 4,028.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 1.8% from USD 4,100.00/MT in Q1, extending the sharp correction driven by improved southern European harvest conditions.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Italy?

Improved harvesting in southern Europe, resulting in better crop yields compared to previous drought periods, continued correcting the supply shortages that had driven prices to historic highs, with cautious buying by major consumers reinforcing the downward trend.

Olive Oil Prices in Greece

Greek prices averaged USD 3,700.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 2.1% from USD 3,780.00/MT in Q1, continuing to ease as improved harvest yields corrected prior supply shortages.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Greece?

Feedstock conditions continued improving compared to previous seasons, correcting the earlier supply shortfall, even as USDA data indicated EU production may decline slightly for the 2025/26 season.

Olive Oil Prices in Spain

Spanish prices, the most stable of the four regions, averaged USD 3,800.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 1.0% from USD 3,840.00/MT in Q1, reflecting balanced supply conditions.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Spain?

Global olive oil production for the 2025/26 season, forecast at around 3.4 million tonnes, remained above recent historical averages, helping this market maintain the most balanced and stable pricing of any region tracked in this report.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Olive Oil Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 6,300.00/MT
• Italy: USD 4,100.00/MT
• Greece: USD 3,780.00/MT
• Spain: USD 3,840.00/MT

Olive Oil Prices in the United States

US prices fell 7.4% in Q1 2026 to USD 6,300.00/MT from USD 6,800.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking a 13.67% decline recorded between January and March.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

Prices for olive oil began declining at the start of 2026 due to improved harvesting in southern Europe, resulting in better crop yields as opposed to previous drought periods, which corrected the supply shortages, though the outbreak of the Iran war, which raised crude oil and freight costs, partially offset the decline before the broader correction resumed.

Olive Oil Prices in Italy

Italian prices fell 12.8% in Q1 2026 to USD 4,100.00/MT from USD 4,700.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the real 12.69% January-to-March decline reported for this market.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Italy?

In Italy, prices showed a 12.69 percent decrease from January to March, reflecting supply improvements from the recent larger harvest and cautious buying by major consumers.

Olive Oil Prices in Greece

Greek prices fell 12.1% in Q1 2026 to USD 3,780.00/MT from USD 4,300.00/MT in Q4 2025, matching the reported 12.09% Q1 decline.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Greece?

In Greece, prices fell 12.09 percent during the quarter, reflecting supply improvements from the recent larger harvest, even as USDA data indicated EU production may decline slightly to 2.0 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, restricting the surplus available.

Olive Oil Prices in Spain

Spanish prices fell 2.8% in Q1 2026 to USD 3,840.00/MT from USD 3,950.00/MT in Q4 2025, the smallest quarterly decline of the four regions.

Why did the price of Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Spain?

In Spain, prices dropped 2.83 percent, the smallest decline among the major markets, reflecting this market's characteristically more balanced and stable supply-demand conditions relative to Italy and Greece.

Quarterly Olive Oil Price Trends

Global Olive Oil prices declined sharply and consistently through every quarter tracked in this report, correcting from 2024's drought-driven crisis highs as improved southern European harvest conditions restored supply, even as the outbreak of the Iran war briefly interrupted the decline in early 2026 through higher freight and transport costs before the broader correction resumed.

What was Olive Oil Price in 2025?

Olive Oil declined sharply across every market covered in this report through 2025, correcting from 2024's drought-driven crisis highs as improved southern European harvest conditions restored supply, with Italy posting the steepest annual decline of the four regions as the largest beneficiary of the harvest recovery.

Olive Oil Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices declined from about USD 8,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 6,800.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 17.1%, reflecting this import-dependent market's exposure to the broader Mediterranean correction.

Olive Oil Prices in Italy in 2025

Italian prices declined from about USD 6,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,700.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 24.2%, the steepest annual decline of the four regions.

Olive Oil Prices in Greece in 2025

Greek prices declined from about USD 5,500.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,300.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 21.8%, tracking the broader harvest-driven correction.

Olive Oil Prices in Spain in 2025

Spanish prices declined from about USD 5,000.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 3,950.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 21.0%, the smallest annual decline of the four regions, reflecting this market's relatively more balanced supply conditions.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Olive Oil Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Olive Oil prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining Mediterranean harvest yield and weather condition data, freight and transport cost signals, and global consumption recovery pattern trends into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the sharp correction covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this essential Mediterranean commodity is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.