Palladium Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

Palladium gave back a good chunk of its 2025 gains in the first half of 2026. China, which runs the most expensive of the four markets covered in this report, felt it hardest: the average price there dropped from USD 1,780/OZ in Q1 2026 to USD 1,430/OZ in Q2, a 19.7% slide. The global benchmark followed the same path, down from USD 1,720/OZ to USD 1,370/OZ, or about 20.3%, though it's still sitting well above the multi-year low the metal hit before 2025's rally took off. Where it goes from here is genuinely unclear. Forecasters see the H2 2026 global benchmark landing somewhere in a USD 1,150-1,550/OZ range, and they're divided on whether the market keeps easing toward balance or turns back up if Russian supply tightens further.

Palladium belongs to the platinum-group metals and, like its peers, trades by the troy ounce, whether on COMEX futures or at the London Platinum and Palladium Market fixing. Most of the demand comes from a single source: gasoline vehicle autocatalysts. Electronics, dental and medical applications, and jewelry take up whatever's left. Price moves mostly come down to four things: mine output out of Russia and South Africa above all, how fast the electric vehicle shift is actually happening versus continued growth in hybrids, whether buyers are substituting platinum for palladium, and how much material recyclers manage to pull back out of scrapped autocatalysts.

Palladium Price Forecast for 2026

Don't expect palladium's supply-demand picture to settle down before the year is out, and don't expect analysts to agree on where it ends up either. Nornickel, the industry's largest producer, has already guided its 2026 output lower, and that decline in Russian mine supply is a genuine support for prices, as is an EV transition that keeps arriving slower than forecast and hybrid vehicle growth that hasn't let up. Pulling the other way is a physical deficit that keeps narrowing and a steady rise in recycled autocatalyst material coming back to market, both pointing toward further price easing. Put the two together and the forecast splits: some analysts think the market gets close to balance, maybe even a small surplus, by year end, while others think prices stay firm if Russian supply keeps getting disrupted.

If Russian mine output falls further, and especially if tighter US trade measures on Russian-origin material pile on top of that, prices could climb back toward the 2025 peak. The bigger risk runs the other direction, though: the physical deficit closing faster than expected, alongside recycled autocatalyst supply that keeps growing, would drag prices toward the bottom of the forecast range.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Palladium Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 1,350/OZ
• Europe: USD 1,380/OZ
• China: USD 1,430/OZ
• Japan: USD 1,410/OZ

Palladium Prices in United States

US buyers averaged USD 1,350/OZ in Q2 2026, the cheapest of the four markets in this report and a 20.6% pullback from Q1's USD 1,700/OZ. The COMEX-linked benchmark simply gave back a lot of what it had gained the quarter before, as the physical deficit kept closing.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q2 2026 in United States?

A narrowing physical deficit and rising recycled autocatalyst supply did most of the damage to price this quarter. Demand held up better than the decline suggests, though: gasoline autocatalyst orders stayed solid on the back of hybrid vehicle growth, and declining Russian mine output kept a floor under the market well above its old multi-year low.

Palladium Prices in Europe

Europe's average came in at USD 1,380/OZ for Q2 2026, a 20.2% retreat from the USD 1,730/OZ recorded the quarter before. Nothing unusual here, really. The London fixing benchmark just moved with the broader global pullback.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q2 2026 in Europe?

Most of what happened in Europe this quarter was really just the global story playing out locally. Rising recycled autocatalyst volumes added extra downward pressure on top of that. Steady demand from autocatalyst and industrial buyers, at least, kept the slide from turning into something worse.

Palladium Prices in China

Even with prices falling, China held onto its usual spot as the priciest of the four markets, averaging USD 1,430/OZ in Q2 2026 against USD 1,780/OZ in Q1, a 19.7% decline. Import duty and VAT are the reason the domestic benchmark keeps trading at a premium regardless of which direction the broader market is heading.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q2 2026 in China?

China's price fell along with everyone else's, but the premium over the international benchmark didn't go anywhere. Import duty and value-added tax charges see to that. Domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand held firm too, which capped the size of the decline. Working against that: recycled supply, which vehicle trade-in programs have been pushing higher.

Palladium Prices in Japan

In Japan, the average slipped to USD 1,410/OZ in Q2 2026, down about 19.9% from Q1's USD 1,760/OZ. Domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand stayed strong enough, though, to keep import-linked pricing at a premium even as the broader market retreated.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

Japan's import-linked pricing basically followed the global pullback off the prior quarter's high. Firm domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand and continued hybrid vehicle growth between them kept order volumes healthy even as the price came down.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Palladium Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 1,700/OZ
• Europe: USD 1,730/OZ
• China: USD 1,780/OZ
• Japan: USD 1,760/OZ

Palladium Prices in United States

US prices opened 2026 on a high note, climbing to USD 1,700/OZ in Q1, a fresh multi-year high and up 4.3% from Q4 2025. Two things drove it: Russian mine output kept declining, and a favorable US trade ruling on Russian-origin material gave the market an extra push.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Order books stayed full this quarter thanks to solid demand for gasoline and hybrid autocatalysts. On the supply side, Russian mine output kept falling, Nornickel itself guided 2026 production lower, which tightened what was available. And a favorable US trade ruling on Russian-origin material gave the whole market an added lift right as the year got going.

Palladium Prices in Europe

Europe's Q1 2026 average reached USD 1,730/OZ, another multi-year high, up roughly 4.2% quarter over quarter. The London fixing benchmark wasn't doing anything unusual, it just rode the same global rally everyone else caught into the new year.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

Supply tightened early in the year as Russian mine output kept declining, and platinum's own run to multi-year highs sent buyers looking at palladium instead, since it was the cheaper platinum-group metal by comparison. Steady demand from autocatalyst and industrial buyers rounded things out, keeping order volumes firm.

Palladium Prices in China

As the domestic market tracked the broader global rally into the new year, China's benchmark climbed to a fresh multi-year high of USD 1,780/OZ in Q1 2026, up 4.1% quarter over quarter.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q1 2026 in China?

China's premium over the international benchmark held up as usual, import duty and VAT see to that every quarter. Add in strong domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand, which kept order volumes firm, and a global supply squeeze from declining Russian mine output, and the market started the year on solid footing.

Palladium Prices in Japan

Japan hit another multi-year high in Q1 2026, USD 1,760/OZ, up about 4.1% from Q4 2025. Strong domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand kept pace with the wider global rally.

Why did the price of Palladium change in Q1 2026 in Japan?

What underpinned firm pricing as the year opened was domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand, which stayed strong throughout the quarter. Worldwide, supply was tight too: Russian mine output kept declining. Even with prices sitting at elevated levels, hybrid vehicle growth kept order volumes healthy.

Quarterly Palladium Price Trends

Look at the six quarters in this table and the whole story is right there: a remarkable climb through 2025 that kept extending palladium's recovery off its multi-year low, followed by a real give-back in Q2 2026. The global benchmark started near USD 980/OZ in Q1 2025, then moved up steadily, USD 1,090/OZ in Q2, USD 1,310/OZ in Q3, USD 1,650/OZ by Q4. It kept climbing into Q1 2026, peaking near USD 1,720/OZ, before dropping back to USD 1,370/OZ in Q2, still a net gain of about 39.8% across the whole six-quarter stretch. The rally itself came down to declining Russian mine output, an EV transition that arrived slower than everyone expected, and hybrid vehicles that kept selling; the Q2 2026 pullback flipped the script, driven by a narrowing physical deficit and more recycled supply coming back into the market.

What was Palladium Price in 2025?

Palladium wasn't supposed to have a year like this. Not long ago, the metal's whole reputation was as a demand-destruction casualty of the electric vehicle shift, and 2025 turned that story on its head. The global benchmark started near USD 980/OZ in Q1 and closed near USD 1,650/OZ by Q4, a 68.4% gain for the full year. Four things drove it: declining Russian mine output, an EV transition that kept arriving slower than forecast, strong hybrid vehicle growth, and renewed interest in using palladium in place of pricier platinum.

Palladium Prices in United States in 2025

The COMEX-linked benchmark shows US prices moving from about USD 960/OZ in Q1 2025 up to USD 1,630/OZ by Q4, a 69.8% gain for the year, and the US stayed the cheapest of the four markets in this report from start to finish.

Palladium Prices in Europe in 2025

Europe's London fixing benchmark tracked the broader rally start to finish, moving from about USD 990/OZ in Q1 2025 to USD 1,660/OZ by Q4, roughly a 67.7% gain for the year.

Palladium Prices in China in 2025

China went from about USD 1,040/OZ in Q1 2025 to USD 1,710/OZ by Q4, a 64.4% gain for the year. Import duty and value-added tax charges are why it held the highest price of the four markets all year long.

Palladium Prices in Japan in 2025

Strong domestic autocatalyst manufacturing demand kept Japan in step with the broader global rally, prices advancing from about USD 1,020/OZ in Q1 2025 to USD 1,690/OZ by Q4, up roughly 65.7% on the year.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Real-Time Intelligence on Palladium Prices

Expert Market Research tracks palladium prices continuously, across every major trading and consuming region there is. We trace the whole causal chain, mine supply trends out of Russia and South Africa, autocatalyst and hybrid vehicle demand cycles, platinum-for-palladium substitution, recycled autocatalyst supply growth, back to the numbers that actually matter for your business. Our forecasts pull from mine production guidance, recycling volume data, and trade flow information across every region we cover. If you need palladium pricing data, custom market analysis, or help with procurement strategy, reach out to our team.