Paraffin Wax Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on paraffin wax provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Paraffin wax prices experienced significant fluctuations during 2024 due to the volatility in crude oil prices, refinery output levels, seasonal demand fluctuations, and global supply chain disruptions, Paraffin wax prices showed sharp volatility within 2024. Against the backdrop of the fourth quarter of 2023, global surpluses led to a relative drop in paraffin wax prices in the fourth quarter of 2024. The global value dip was primarily the result of weak consumption demand across the globe, rising inventory levels, and falling crude oil prices. Additionally, reduced production expenses for paraffin wax due to declining crude oil prices also contributed to the lower price. Moving into 2025, paraffin wax prices are predicted to gradually keep losing ground with moderate volatility, underpinned primarily by continuous poor demand and abundant supply.

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A rising trend towards sustainable, bio-based substitutes is slowly decreasing dependence on paraffin wax. Also, lower freight and a trend towards sustainable substitutes are putting pressure on the market. Excess supply in the market due to partial contribution from traders holding inventory ahead of time has also pressured prices.

Paraffin Wax Price Forecast

Based on paraffin wax monthly data for September 2023 to December 2024, the market is fluctuating, but overall downward trend. Prices first went up in early 2024 on account of seasonal demand and marginal tightening of supply, but started falling in the second half of the year owing to softening global demand, especially from the candle, cosmetics, and packaging industries. The decline has also been affected by an oversupplied market, fueled by excess inventory accumulation and better global shipping infrastructure that boosted the availability of the product in the main regions.

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This trend is also supported by wider macroeconomic forces like decelerating industrial activity and decreasing crude oil prices, which cut the cost of production. This suggests that the paraffin wax market should continue to come under mild bearish pressure for the next half year. Demand recovery remains uncertain in the face of economic difficulties, while sustainability initiatives and the trend toward bio-based alternatives to traditional paraffin wax continue to burden historic paraffin wax demand. Consequently, market conditions should remain soft, with only moderate fluctuations unless major changes in international supply chains or patterns of consumer demand.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The global trade and supply chain implications of paraffin wax are in close relationship with numerous factors, such as the cost and availability of crude oil, transport issues, regional imbalances of demand, and market competitiveness of substitute oils. All these factors combined determine price dynamics and availability of paraffin wax on a worldwide scale. As an internationally traded product, any fluctuation in supply or shifts in international trade regulations will have far- reaching effects on the producers and consumers of paraffin wax.

Paraffin wax is a highly traded commodity all over the world, and major exporters are nations such as India, Uzbekistan and Malaysia. Mexico, UAE and USA are major importers on the other hand. Policies of global trade, tariffs and regulations can strongly influence paraffin wax prices and supply.

For example, in 2023, exports or trade tariffs between the producing countries of main importance, i.e., between China and the U.S., impacted paraffin wax imports. In some instances, export restrictions made imports more costly due to tariffs and less competitive in certain areas. The exports, which in either case have been subject to economic or political restrictions, have caused supply shortfalls in imported market regions, leading to price increases.

Feedstock Analysis

The paraffin wax price trend is directly related to its feedstock, which primarily consists of crude oil. A change in the price of crude oil directly impacts the cost of manufacturing paraffin wax. This is because key inputs such as lube distillates and slack wax, which are utilized to produce paraffin wax, are also derived from crude oil. Falling crude oil prices in 2023 reduced production costs that helped to lower prices of paraffin wax across the globe. In early 2024, when crude oil prices began to increase and refineries were subjected to tighter profit margins, the price of paraffin wax also began to rise particularly for countries that depend on imported slack wax. In addition to this, many refineries have been focusing on manufacturing more fuels such as petrol and diesel instead of lubricants, which has led to less slack wax being manufactured. This reduced availability of feedstock has added pressure to paraffin wax prices.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Paraffin Wax

As 2025 progresses, the paraffin wax market is expected to navigate a period of mixed dynamics. Short-term volatility may persist due to fluctuating crude oil prices, uneven regional demand, and trade policy shifts. However, by mid to late 2025, the market could stabilize, supported by seasonal demand recovery, improved export sentiment, and tightening supply in key regions. While uncertainty remains, particularly around feedstock costs and global economic conditions, a modest price rebound is possible if fundamentals begin to realign.

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