Potash Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Brazil paid the most for potash in Q2 2026: USD 445/MT, up 3.5% from USD 430 in Q1. Potash is the general commercial term for potassium fertiliser products mined from sylvinite or other potash ore deposits, with muriate of potash, MOP, the dominant form by a wide margin and sulfate of potash, SOP, a smaller-volume premium alternative favoured for potassium-sensitive crops.

Canada, through Saskatchewan-based Nutrien and Mosaic operations, along with Russia and Belarus, together account for roughly 65 to 70 percent of global potash production capacity, giving this small group of producers substantial influence over global supply discipline and pricing. China's annual MOP import contract settlement, most recently finalised at 348 US dollars per tonne cost-and-freight for 2026, has become the most closely watched global benchmark, since it establishes a reference point that ripples into spot market negotiations across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America.

Brazil, importing nearly all the potash it consumes to support its large row-crop agriculture sector, consistently posts among the highest global spot prices given the added freight cost from major supplying regions, while Canada's proximity to its own mines keeps it the most competitively priced market tracked here. Belarusian export sanctions imposed since 2021 have structurally reshaped global potash trade flows, pushing buyers toward Canadian and other alternative sources and contributing to a period of elevated and more volatile pricing relative to the market's historical pattern.

Comparing the four markets side by side, Brazil sat about 46% above Canada as Q2 closed. That kind of gap is common where import exposure and domestic production costs diverge as sharply as they do here.

Potash Price Forecast for 2026

Expect a mixed picture through H2 2026, with China's price likely easing modestly from its contract-driven Q1 peak while India, Brazil, and Canada continue firming. Canada should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its proximity to Saskatchewan mining operations and stable export volumes. Brazil's import-dependent premium should persist given the country's near-total reliance on imported potash and the freight costs that entails. Former Soviet Union export capacity, encompassing Russia and Belarus, remains the single most important variable to watch, since any recovery or further disruption there would ripple through contract negotiations worldwide.

On balance, the first half of 2026 brought a 1.7% increase average move across the 4 markets covered here, a trend that should persist through year end absent a material change in the underlying drivers.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Potash Prices Q2 2026:

• China: USD 338/MT
• India: USD 408/MT
• Brazil: USD 445/MT
• Canada: USD 305/MT

Potash Prices in China

In Q2 2026, China priced at USD 338/MT, down 2.9% from USD 348/MT the previous quarter, ranking it the 3rd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in China?

Domestic pricing eased from the contract-driven Q1 peak as below-average port inventories began rebuilding and buyers gained some negotiating leverage, working out to China trading about 9.6% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 2.3% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.

Potash Prices in India

India reached USD 408/MT in Q2 2026, strong agricultural demand and firm import contract terms kept Indian pricing climbing, placing it the 2nd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in India?

Strong agricultural demand and firm import contract terms kept Indian pricing climbing, leaving India running roughly 9.1% above the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is faster than the 1.9% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Potash Prices in Brazil

Brazil rose 3.5% to USD 445/MT in Q2 2026, consistently high freight costs from major supplying regions kept Brazil at the top of this group, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in Brazil?

Consistently high freight costs from major supplying regions kept Brazil at the top of this group, and demand from the country's large row-crop sector stayed firm, with Brazil now sitting about 19.0% above the 4-region average this quarter.

Brazil has averaged 1.9% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.

Potash Prices in Canada

USD 305/MT. That is where Canada landed in Q2 2026, up 2.3% from USD 298/MT in Q1 2026, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in Canada?

Stable Saskatchewan export volumes kept Canadian pricing the most competitive of the four markets even as it firmed modestly in step with the group, which puts Canada roughly 18.4% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 1.4% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Canada's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Potash Prices Q1 2026:

• China: USD 348/MT
• India: USD 395/MT
• Brazil: USD 430/MT
• Canada: USD 298/MT

Potash Prices in China

In Q1 2026, China priced at USD 348/MT, up 2.1% from USD 341/MT the previous quarter, ranking it the 3rd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in China?

Below-average port inventories and constrained Former Soviet Union export availability supported the finalisation of the 2026 import contract at a firm level, working out to China trading about 5.4% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 2.3% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.

Potash Prices in India

India reached USD 395/MT in Q1 2026, strong agricultural demand and tight global supply conditions supported a firm start to 2026, placing it the 2nd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in India?

Strong agricultural demand and tight global supply conditions supported a firm start to 2026, leaving India running roughly 7.4% above the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is slower than the 1.9% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Potash Prices in Brazil

Brazil rose 1.5% to USD 430/MT in Q1 2026, consistent import demand for the country's large agricultural sector supported a firm early-year increase, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in Brazil?

Consistent import demand for the country's large agricultural sector supported a firm early-year increase, with Brazil now sitting about 16.9% above the 4-region average this quarter.

Brazil has averaged 1.9% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.

Potash Prices in Canada

USD 298/MT. That is where Canada landed in Q1 2026, up 1.1% from USD 295/MT in Q4 2025, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in Canada?

Steady export volumes supported a modest early-year gain, with only a small reduction in March reflecting minor demand adjustments, which puts Canada roughly 19.0% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 1.4% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Canada's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.

Quarterly Potash Price Trends

The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 346/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 374 by Q2 2026, a gain of 8.2% over six quarters.

What was Potash Price in 2025?

Looking back at 2025, the global potash average ran from about USD 346/MT in Q1 to USD 362 by Q4, a 4.8% increase across the year.

Potash Prices in China in 2025

China prices moved from about USD 320/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 341 by Q4, up roughly 6.5%. China closed the year ranked 3 of the 4 markets this report tracks.

Potash Prices in India in 2025

India prices moved from about USD 372/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 389 by Q4, up roughly 4.6%, leaving India in 2 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.

Potash Prices in Brazil in 2025

Brazil prices moved from about USD 405/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 424 by Q4, up roughly 4.6%. That left Brazil ranked 1 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.

Potash Prices in Canada in 2025

Canada prices moved from about USD 285/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 295 by Q4, up roughly 3.4%, placing Canada 4 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Potash Price Intelligence

We monitor potash markets across every region with meaningful production or consumption, connecting the price you see to the sylvinite/potash ore (potassium chloride) costs and demand conditions behind it. The result is a regularly updated view built from the ground up rather than a single static figure.

Our forecasts combine production capacity data with feedstock cost trends and regional demand signals, giving sourcing teams a defensible basis for budgeting and supplier negotiations beyond a single point estimate.

Get in touch with our analysts if you need a more detailed regional view, historical pricing beyond the six quarters shown here, or a sourcing analysis built specifically around your procurement footprint.

We track MOP and SOP pricing separately where data allows, since SOP's premium positioning for potassium-sensitive crops gives it a distinct demand pattern from the much larger-volume MOP market.