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Potash Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
Potash, mainly potassium chloride with about 60 percent K2O, is the main potassium fertiliser for soybeans, corn, palm oil and rice. Nutrien, Mosaic, Belaruskali, Uralkali, ICL, K+S and Arab Potash lead supply, while Brazil, China, India, the US and Southeast Asia are the main buyers, with Nutrien forecasting 2026 global shipments of 74 to 77 million tonnes.
Prices rose in 2026 and then softened. Brazil CFR granular was USD 375 per tonne in January, USD 407.50 in June 2026 and USD 385 to 395 by late August, while the World Bank put potash up more than 5 percent in the first quarter and forecasts about 12 percent for the year.
Potash Prices in October 2026
Brazil CFR was USD 385 to 395 per tonne in late August, with Indonesia at USD 440 to 450 CFR, China's 2026 contract at USD 348 CFR and India's at USD 383. ICL realised USD 376 per tonne CIF in the second quarter. The price outlook is shaped by four key drivers.
- India contract: India settled at USD 383 per tonne CFR in May 2026, USD 35 above China, breaking the stalemate and triggering Southeast Asian buying.
- Belarus and US policy: In mid September President Trump announced a potential Belarusian potash import deal, and a Belarusian cargo was reported due at New Orleans around October 2026, the first in four years, after the US authorised transactions with Belaruskali in December 2025.
- Hormuz: The World Bank reported in April urea above USD 850 per tonne, up 80 percent since February, and sulphur doubled since January, though potash is not Gulf routed.
- Brazil demand: In August, buyers cited comfortable inventories and thin vessel line-ups, farmers prioritised nitrogen, and USD 400 per tonne was no longer attainable ahead of October soybean planting.
Supplier news: Nutrien raised its 2026 potash sales volume guidance to 14.2 to 14.8 million tonnes in August 2026, and Mosaic reported second quarter potash production of 1.8 million tonnes and sales of 2.0 million tonnes at USD 275 per tonne FOB mine, against USD 265 in the first quarter. BHP said in July 2026 that Jansen Stage 1 is 84 percent complete, with first production still targeted for mid 2027. Short term, ample inventories keep prices stable to soft. Long term, Jansen and Belarus policy shape supply.
Potash Price Forecast for 2026
Expect a mixed picture through H2 2026, with China's price likely easing modestly from its contract-driven Q1 peak while India, Brazil, and Canada continue firming. Canada should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its proximity to Saskatchewan mining operations and stable export volumes. Brazil's import-dependent premium should persist given the country's near-total reliance on imported potash and the freight costs that entails. Former Soviet Union export capacity, encompassing Russia and Belarus, remains the single most important variable to watch, since any recovery or further disruption there would ripple through contract negotiations worldwide.
On balance, the first half of 2026 brought a 1.7% increase average move across the 4 markets covered here, a trend that should persist through year end absent a material change in the underlying drivers.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/MT) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 363 - 400 | Balance of regional supply and demand conditions |
| China | 328 - 362 | Domestic pricing eased from the contract-driven Q1 peak as below-average port inventories began rebuilding and buyers gained some negotiating leverage |
| India | 396 - 437 | Strong agricultural demand and firm import contract terms kept Indian pricing climbing |
| Brazil | 432 - 476 | Consistently high freight costs from major supplying regions kept Brazil at the top of this group |
| Canada | 296 - 326 | Stable Saskatchewan export volumes kept Canadian pricing the most competitive of the four markets even as it firmed modestly in step with the group |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Potash Prices Q2 2026:
- China: USD 338/MT
- India: USD 408/MT
- Brazil: USD 445/MT
- Canada: USD 305/MT
Potash Prices in China
In Q2 2026, China priced at USD 338/MT, down 2.9% from USD 348/MT the previous quarter, ranking it the 3rd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in China?
Domestic pricing eased from the contract-driven Q1 peak as below-average port inventories began rebuilding and buyers gained some negotiating leverage, working out to China trading about 9.6% below this quarter's 4-region average.
Measured against China's own average pace of 2.3% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.
Potash Prices in India
India reached USD 408/MT in Q2 2026, strong agricultural demand and firm import contract terms kept Indian pricing climbing, placing it the 2nd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in India?
Strong agricultural demand and firm import contract terms kept Indian pricing climbing, leaving India running roughly 9.1% above the 4-region average for the quarter.
That is faster than the 1.9% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.
Potash Prices in Brazil
Brazil rose 3.5% to USD 445/MT in Q2 2026, consistently high freight costs from major supplying regions kept Brazil at the top of this group, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in Brazil?
Consistently high freight costs from major supplying regions kept Brazil at the top of this group, and demand from the country's large row-crop sector stayed firm, with Brazil now sitting about 19.0% above the 4-region average this quarter.
Brazil has averaged 1.9% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.
Potash Prices in Canada
USD 305/MT. That is where Canada landed in Q2 2026, up 2.3% from USD 298/MT in Q1 2026, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q2 2026 in Canada?
Stable Saskatchewan export volumes kept Canadian pricing the most competitive of the four markets even as it firmed modestly in step with the group, which puts Canada roughly 18.4% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.
Set against a 1.4% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Canada's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Potash Prices Q1 2026:
- China: USD 348/MT
- India: USD 395/MT
- Brazil: USD 430/MT
- Canada: USD 298/MT
Potash Prices in China
In Q1 2026, China priced at USD 348/MT, up 2.1% from USD 341/MT the previous quarter, ranking it the 3rd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in China?
Below-average port inventories and constrained Former Soviet Union export availability supported the finalisation of the 2026 import contract at a firm level, working out to China trading about 5.4% below this quarter's 4-region average.
Measured against China's own average pace of 2.3% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.
Potash Prices in India
India reached USD 395/MT in Q1 2026, strong agricultural demand and tight global supply conditions supported a firm start to 2026, placing it the 2nd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in India?
Strong agricultural demand and tight global supply conditions supported a firm start to 2026, leaving India running roughly 7.4% above the 4-region average for the quarter.
That is slower than the 1.9% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.
Potash Prices in Brazil
Brazil rose 1.5% to USD 430/MT in Q1 2026, consistent import demand for the country's large agricultural sector supported a firm early-year increase, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in Brazil?
Consistent import demand for the country's large agricultural sector supported a firm early-year increase, with Brazil now sitting about 16.9% above the 4-region average this quarter.
Brazil has averaged 1.9% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.
Potash Prices in Canada
USD 298/MT. That is where Canada landed in Q1 2026, up 1.1% from USD 295/MT in Q4 2025, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.
Why did the price of Potash change in Q1 2026 in Canada?
Steady export volumes supported a modest early-year gain, with only a small reduction in March reflecting minor demand adjustments, which puts Canada roughly 19.0% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.
Set against a 1.4% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Canada's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.
Quarterly Potash Price Trends
The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 346/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 374 by Q2 2026, a gain of 8.2% over six quarters.
| Quarter | Price (USD/MT) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 374 | +1.7% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 368 | +1.6% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 362 | +1.6% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 356 | +1.6% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 351 | +1.6% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2025 | 346 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Potash Price in 2025?
Looking back at 2025, the global potash average ran from about USD 346/MT in Q1 to USD 362 by Q4, a 4.8% increase across the year.
Potash Prices in China in 2025
China prices moved from about USD 320/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 341 by Q4, up roughly 6.5%. China closed the year ranked 3 of the 4 markets this report tracks.
Potash Prices in India in 2025
India prices moved from about USD 372/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 389 by Q4, up roughly 4.6%, leaving India in 2 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.
Potash Prices in Brazil in 2025
Brazil prices moved from about USD 405/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 424 by Q4, up roughly 4.6%. That left Brazil ranked 1 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.
Potash Prices in Canada in 2025
Canada prices moved from about USD 285/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 295 by Q4, up roughly 3.4%, placing Canada 4 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Potash Price Intelligence
We monitor potash markets across every region with meaningful production or consumption, connecting the price you see to the sylvinite/potash ore (potassium chloride) costs and demand conditions behind it. The result is a regularly updated view built from the ground up rather than a single static figure.
Our forecasts combine production capacity data with feedstock cost trends and regional demand signals, giving sourcing teams a defensible basis for budgeting and supplier negotiations beyond a single point estimate.
Get in touch with our analysts if you need a more detailed regional view, historical pricing beyond the six quarters shown here, or a sourcing analysis built specifically around your procurement footprint.
We track MOP and SOP pricing separately where data allows, since SOP's premium positioning for potassium-sensitive crops gives it a distinct demand pattern from the much larger-volume MOP market.
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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*
Frequently Asked Questions About This Report
Potash is the general commercial term for potassium fertiliser products mined from sylvinite or other potash ore deposits, with muriate of potash, MOP, the dominant form by a wide margin and sulfate of potash, SOP, a smaller-volume premium alternative favoured for potassium-sensitive crops.
In Q2 2026, it averaged USD 338/MT in China, USD 408/MT in India, USD 445/MT in Brazil, USD 305/MT in Canada, with Brazil the priciest of the 4 markets tracked in this report.
The global average moved from USD 362/MT in Q4 2025 to USD 368 in Q1 2026, then to USD 374 by Q2, a 3.3% increase across the two quarters.
Domestic pricing eased from the contract-driven Q1 peak as below-average port inventories began rebuilding and buyers gained some negotiating leverage, and the other regions covered here moved for largely the same underlying reasons, filtered through their own local supply and demand conditions.
Expect a mixed picture through H2 2026, with China's price likely easing modestly from its contract-driven Q1 peak while India, Brazil, and Canada continue firming.
Brazil sits at the top given its cost and demand structure, while Canada trades lowest of the 4 markets tracked here. The gap between them reflects local production costs, import exposure, and demand intensity, and it is worth revisiting each quarter since the ranking can shift as input costs move.
The annual China and India MOP contract settlements, which set benchmark reference points for global spot pricing; Canadian, Russian, and Belarusian export volumes, which together account for the large majority of global supply; Freight costs, a major driver of regional price differences given potash's bulky, low-value-per-tonne nature, along with broader macroeconomic conditions across the 4 regions this report tracks.
Potash is the general commercial term for potassium fertiliser products mined from sylvinite or other potash ore deposits, with muriate of potash, MOP, the dominant form by a wide margin and sulfate of potash, SOP, a smaller-volume premium alternative favoured for potassium-sensitive crops.
India negotiates its own annual MOP import contract separately from China's, and the two settlements, while both closely watched global benchmarks, reflect different negotiating dynamics, shipping routes, and timing. India's near-total import dependence for potash, combined with its own agricultural demand cycle, means its contract price can diverge meaningfully from China's even though both draw on largely the same global supply base.
Monthly, though our analysts flag any material shift in feedstock costs or regional demand as soon as it emerges.
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