Structural Steel Price Trends and Forecast Report 2025 Edition

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Structural Steel provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, steel demand in major markets such as India and the U.S. remained steady due to a persistent push for urbanization and industrial development. Fluctuating raw material costs, such as iron ore and cooking coal, continue to affect production costs and supply chain efficiency.  Global structural steel prices are facing a soft market in 2025, with supply outpacing demand. Mild recovery is possible in late 2025, contingent on construction activity and policy support in major economies.

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The evolution of industrial policy in China has contributed to the supply of steel globally. Efforts to cut down the overproduction of steel in China were observed. This was primarily to meet environmental targets, which resulted in changing international trade patterns. Such policy interventions have caused alternative production centers, such as India and Southeast Asia, to increase their market share. The energy costs and disruptions of freight transport still keep disrupting the market, indicating increasing volatility in steel prices.

Structural Steel Price Forecast

Prices of structural steel remained stable throughout 2024, showing some divergence from region to region. Due to the countries ongoing infrastructure developments and increased government spending ahead of elections, the price of domestic steel in India remained stable. General market trends show a continued demand, especially in respect of flat and long steel; construction and industrial activity have driven this demand. A 13% YoY increase in steel demand was observed in the first five months of the fiscal year, driven largely by the construction sector. High coking coal prices and supply-side issues in China are key to keeping prices stable at these levels. Demand in construction buildings will keep capping the already high prices till the first half of 2025.

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Possible global economic conditions and potential tariff changes for steel imports to the U.S. and the EU could account for these price disparities between regions. Otherwise, the development of iron ore and coking coal prices may just cause slight variations, especially in case the industrial recovery turns out to be rather lame in China. Given all these events, structural steel is likely to stabilize by mid-2025 with about 8-9% growth in the Indian steel demand.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

In 2024, there was a 24.5% surge in finished steel imports, with a 6.4% dip in exports in India. This translates to an increase of some 3.2 million metric tonnes of steel availability in the domestic market, which has stabilized price levels. Since China continues to cut down steel production, Indian and U.S. producers could gain more presence in the market, thereby altering the flow of global trade.

Indeed, other regulatory policies, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), are expected to impact the global steel trade. These environmental regulations will most likely increase non-EU steel producers' costs, creating challenges for exporters while promoting domestic production in Europe. If sustainability and emissions reduction gain greater focus, steelmakers will have to pivot their production methods to comply with the evolving trade regulations.

Feedstock Analysis

Some iron ore, coking coal, and manganese are essential raw materials for structural steel production, where the price volatility results from shifting geopolitical boundaries and fluxes in the supply-demand ratio. By March 2025, the price for iron ore futures on the Dalian Exchange had lost 2.81 percent, dropping to around 779.5 yuan per ton. Singapore's April benchmark was also pressured below 100 US dollars per ton, as tariff discussions and supply speculation pushed down prices. Coking coal came at around 220 US dollars per ton, a 15 percent decline as of August 2024, due to sluggish Indian demand, monsoon disruptions, and enhanced supply from Australia, alleviating cost pressures for producers.

Manganese prices stabilised during October 2024 following a few months of decline; henceforth future propensity of the price is unpredictable. Iron ore and coking coal prices may ultimately provide lower production costs; however, deal concerns and manganese price fluctuations add to missed complexity, making it mandatory for steel producers to always be vigilant.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Structural Steel

The first half of 2025 is expected to bring stability to the structural steel market. However, a strong demand forecast for structural steel may be challenged in the latter part of the year, as price fluctuations could impact market players due to declining demand or variations in pricing trends linked to trade policy disruptions, increasing energy costs, and raw material price volatility. Global production adjustments, supply chain bottlenecks, and changes in government infrastructure spending will present barriers to short-term price volatility. Demand for infrastructure projects will help stabilise price levels. Econometric market analysis also suggests that continued volatility in upstream raw materials and policy variables will remain key influencers of structural steel pricing through 2025.

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What Our Reports Include:

Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.
• Visualisations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed industry analysis of current supply and demand trends, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.
• Insights from our extensive supplier and trader network, government websites, industry bodies, and global trade data.

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• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.
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• Forecasted price trends analysis for structural steel for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical price analysis.
• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

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