Tungsten Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

In Japan, the highest-cost reporting region, tungsten prices extended an extraordinary climb through H1 2026, building on the sharp acceleration that began in late 2025. The Japan average rose from USD 1,950/MTU in Q1 2026 to USD 3,350/MTU in Q2, a gain of about 71.8%. Globally, the benchmark rose from USD 1,850/MTU in Q1 2026 to USD 3,050/MTU in Q2, a gain of about 64.9%, as tightening Chinese export controls and a formal export-quota system pushed pricing sharply higher across every import-dependent market. For H2 2026, a global benchmark of USD 2,900-3,400/MTU is expected, with restricted export volumes and rising defense and solar-wire demand keeping the market elevated and volatile.

Tungsten is priced on the metric ton unit, or MTU, a standard measure equal to ten kilograms of contained tungsten trioxide (WO3), the convention used for ammonium paratungstate and tungsten concentrate, the two forms that set the headline global benchmark. Cemented tungsten carbide manufacturing for cutting tools and mining and drilling equipment accounts for the largest share of global demand, with defense applications including armor-piercing ammunition and kinetic penetrators, semiconductor interconnects and sputtering targets, and a fast-growing pool of tungsten wire demand for diamond-wire solar wafer cutting rounding out major uses. Chinese mining quotas and export licensing policy, falling ore grades at mature Chinese deposits, defense-sector and solar-wire demand growth, and the pace of new non-China mine development are the drivers that move price most consistently.

Tungsten Price Forecast for 2026

The supply-demand balance for tungsten through the remainder of 2026 leans toward continued elevated pricing and volatility across the international, import-dependent markets. China's formal export-quota catalog and its list of only fifteen authorized exporters for 2026-2027 keep legitimate export volumes tightly restricted, while a reduced domestic mining quota and falling ore grades at mature Chinese deposits limit new concentrate supply. Growing defense-sector demand for kinetic penetrators and armor-piercing ammunition, alongside fast-expanding tungsten-wire demand for diamond-wire solar wafer cutting, add further upward pressure. Partial ramp-up of new non-China mine supply, including the Sangdong project in South Korea, is expected to ease the squeeze only modestly given the long lead times typical of new mine development.

The primary upside risk is a further tightening of Chinese export policy, such as additional country-specific restrictions similar to the dual-use blocks placed on Japanese military-linked suppliers in February 2026, which would push international prices well above the forecast range. The primary downside risk is a broader trade détente that extends China's November 2025 suspension of certain critical-mineral export controls to tungsten, which currently remains outside that suspension, combined with faster non-China mine ramp-up from South Korea, Portugal, and Spain, which would pull international prices back toward the Chinese domestic benchmark.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Tungsten Prices Q2 2026:

• China: USD 1,280/MTU
• Europe: USD 3,100/MTU
• United States: USD 3,250/MTU
• Japan: USD 3,350/MTU

Tungsten Prices in China

Chinese domestic prices averaged USD 1,280/MTU in Q2 2026, up about 12.3% from USD 1,140/MTU in Q1 2026, the lowest level among the four tracked markets. Falling domestic concentrate feedstock costs and a market now clearly decoupled from export pricing eased the pace of increase through the quarter.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q2 2026 in China?

Domestic concentrate feedstock costs eased noticeably from their Q1 2026 highs, pulling the pace of increase back sharply. The domestic market, insulated from export licensing and quota restrictions, continued trading well below the international benchmark, with traders describing the split as two genuinely separate markets.

Tungsten Prices in Europe

European CIF prices averaged USD 3,100/MTU in Q2 2026, up about 63.2% from USD 1,900/MTU in Q1 2026. Tightly restricted export quotas from China's fifteen authorized exporters kept import-dependent pricing at a sustained premium over the domestic Chinese benchmark.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q2 2026 in Europe?

China's formal export-quota catalog and its restricted list of authorized exporters kept legitimate shipment volumes far below historical levels. Depleted regional inventories were drawn down further as buyers competed for scarce tonnage.

Tungsten Prices in United States

US prices averaged USD 3,250/MTU in Q2 2026, up about 58.5% from USD 2,050/MTU in Q1 2026, the second-highest level among the four tracked markets. Section 301 tariff exposure on Chinese-origin tungsten products layered an additional premium onto the already tightly quota-restricted global benchmark.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Tariff-related costs on Chinese-origin material continued to add a premium above the underlying international benchmark. Growing defense-sector demand for kinetic penetrators and armor-piercing ammunition supported firm order volumes despite the elevated cost base.

Tungsten Prices in Japan

Japanese prices averaged USD 3,350/MTU in Q2 2026, up about 71.8% from USD 1,950/MTU in Q1 2026, the highest level among the four tracked markets. Targeted export restrictions placed on Japan-linked buyers in February 2026 pushed pricing to the steepest premium of any tracked market.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

China's February 2026 decision to block tungsten-related dual-use item exports to a group of Japanese military-linked suppliers sharply curtailed legitimate supply into the market. Buyers sought alternative sourcing at a steep premium to secure adequate tonnage.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Tungsten Prices Q1 2026:

• China: USD 1,140/MTU
• Europe: USD 1,900/MTU
• United States: USD 2,050/MTU
• Japan: USD 1,950/MTU

Tungsten Prices in China

Chinese domestic prices averaged USD 1,140/MTU in Q1 2026, up about 67.6% from Q4 2025, as a reduced annual mining quota and continued export-licensing restrictions tightened the domestic supply-demand balance entering the year.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q1 2026 in China?

A domestic mining quota cut of roughly 6.5% year over year, combined with falling ore grades at mature deposits, limited new concentrate supply entering the year. Export-licensing requirements introduced in February 2025 continued restricting legitimate shipment volumes.

Tungsten Prices in Europe

European CIF prices averaged USD 1,900/MTU in Q1 2026, up about 111.1% from Q4 2025, as the formal export-quota catalog listing took effect and the restricted fifteen-exporter system began sharply limiting available tonnage entering the year.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

The export-quota catalog listing that took effect in late 2025, combined with the restricted authorized-exporter list finalized in December 2025, sharply curtailed legitimate shipment volumes entering the year. Depleted regional inventories accelerated the price response.

Tungsten Prices in United States

US prices averaged USD 2,050/MTU in Q1 2026, up about 109.2% from Q4 2025, as tightening Chinese export quotas and continued Section 301 tariff exposure pushed the market sharply higher entering the year.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Tightening Chinese export quotas and the restricted authorized-exporter system sharply limited available import tonnage entering the year. Section 301 tariff costs on Chinese-origin material added a further premium.

Tungsten Prices in Japan

Japanese prices averaged USD 1,950/MTU in Q1 2026, up about 109.7% from Q4 2025, tracking the broader tightening export-quota system entering the year, ahead of the targeted restrictions placed on Japan-linked buyers that followed in February.

Why did the price of Tungsten change in Q1 2026 in Japan?

The export-quota catalog listing and restricted authorized-exporter system sharply limited available import tonnage entering the year. Depleted regional inventories added further upward pressure heading into the quarter.

Quarterly Tungsten Price Trends

Global tungsten prices rose sharply and persistently across every quarter tracked, an unusually steep and sustained climb driven by tightening Chinese export policy. The benchmark opened near USD 310/MTU in Q1 2025, rose to USD 430/MTU in Q2 following the initial export-licensing requirements introduced in February 2025, then climbed to USD 615/MTU in Q3 and USD 870/MTU in Q4 2025 as the formal export-quota system took shape, before accelerating sharply to USD 1,850/MTU in Q1 2026 and USD 3,050/MTU in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 883.9% across the six-quarter window. Restricted export quotas, a reduced domestic mining quota, and rising defense and solar-wire demand drove the sustained increase.

What was Tungsten Price in 2025?

Tungsten prices rose sharply and persistently through 2025 as China introduced export-licensing requirements in February, followed by a formal export-quota catalog listing and a restricted authorized-exporter system by year end. The global benchmark opened near USD 310/MTU in Q1 2025 and closed near USD 870/MTU by Q4, a full-year gain of about 180.6%. Tightening export policy, a reduced domestic mining quota, and growing defense and solar-wire demand were the primary forces that defined the year.

Tungsten Prices in China in 2025

Chinese domestic prices rose from about USD 300/MTU in Q1 2025 to USD 680/MTU by Q4, a full-year gain of roughly 126.7%, holding the lowest level among the four tracked markets throughout the year as domestic pricing began decoupling from the tightening export market.

Tungsten Prices in Europe in 2025

European CIF prices rose from about USD 320/MTU in Q1 2025 to USD 900/MTU by Q4, a full-year gain of roughly 181.3%, tracking the broader export-licensing tightening as regional inventories began drawing down.

Tungsten Prices in United States in 2025

US prices rose from about USD 350/MTU in Q1 2025 to USD 980/MTU by Q4, a full-year gain of about 180.0%, as tightening Chinese export policy and Section 301 tariff exposure pushed import-linked pricing higher throughout the year.

Tungsten Prices in Japan in 2025

Japanese prices rose from about USD 330/MTU in Q1 2025 to USD 930/MTU by Q4, a full-year gain of about 181.8%, tracking the broader tightening export-quota system ahead of the targeted restrictions that followed in early 2026.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Tungsten Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks tungsten prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces causation through Chinese mining quotas and export-licensing policy, defense-sector and solar-wire demand cycles, non-China mine development timelines, and the widening gap between domestic Chinese and international export pricing. Forecasts draw on quota allocation data, inventory levels, and trade flow information across all reporting regions. Contact Expert Market Research today for tungsten pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.