Zinc Oxide Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

The 3-region average for zinc oxide fell 4.4% through 2025, from USD 3.046/KG to USD 2.912/KG. That number, on its own, doesn't really tell you what the year looked like. Northeast Asia was down 13.5%, pushed lower all year by soft zinc metal costs and Chinese producers who kept supply running at comfortable levels. South America did the opposite, gaining 6.7% as the domestic rubber and construction sectors held up when prices elsewhere were falling. Southeast Asia fell 6.9%, tracking the Asian supply dynamics more than the South American demand story. Three markets, three directions. By Q1 2026, all three had turned positive and the average recovered to USD 3.006/KG.

Zinc oxide comes from the French process: zinc metal vaporised, oxidised, and collected as fine white powder. About half of global output goes into rubber vulcanisation, mainly for tyres; ceramics, paints, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and electronics take the rest. Prices follow LME zinc fairly closely since that's the feedstock, which is why most analysts start there when trying to anticipate where zinc oxide is heading. Energy costs at production sites and freight on traded volumes fill out the regional pricing picture from there.

Zinc Oxide Price Forecast for 2026

Q1 2026 suggests a moderate firming from last year's lows is the most likely scenario for the rest of 2026, though the speed and extent will vary by region. Northeast Asia's zinc cost floor should hold, but getting back toward 2025 opening levels will need firmer rubber and ceramics demand to show up first; the range sits at USD 2.45 to 2.85/KG. South America's demand case looks more reliable: the rubber and construction sectors have been consistent enough that the USD 3.20 to 3.70/KG range looks sustainable through the year. Southeast Asia should track gradually higher as automotive and rubber buying picks up. A renewed dip in LME zinc is the main downside risk; a stronger auto cycle would be the upside surprise.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Zinc Oxide Prices Q1 2026:

• Northeast Asia: USD 2.627/KG
• South America: USD 3.456/KG
• Southeast Asia: USD 2.934/KG

Zinc Oxide Prices in Northeast Asia

In Q1 2026, Northeast Asia averaged USD 2.627/KG, up 1.9% from USD 2.578/KG in Q4 2025. First positive quarter in a while. Part of what changed was on the cost side: zinc metal had firmed on international exchanges, and that took some of the downward pressure off producers. Rubber sector buyers in the tyre and automotive industries came back to the spot market around the same time. Small gain in absolute terms, but the direction had been missing for several quarters, so the 1.9% recovery carried more weight than the number alone suggests. Northeast Asia still holds the lowest price of the three areas, a measure of how much ground it lost through 2025.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q1 2026 in Northeast Asia?

Zinc metal firmed on international exchanges, taking pressure off the cost side. Rubber sector buyers returned to the spot market at the same time, adding demand. Those two shifts together were enough to produce the 1.9% Q1 recovery.

Zinc Oxide Prices in South America

South America came in at USD 3.456/KG in Q1 2026, up 3.5% from USD 3.340/KG in Q4. Highest regional price in the five-quarter dataset. The demand side stayed predictable: rubber and tyre procurement held at solid levels, construction-linked ceramics demand didn't flinch, and producers gave nothing away on pricing. What that looks like in context: South America was up 10.4% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026. Northeast Asia, over those same five quarters, was down 11.9%. Same commodity, same period, nearly 22 percentage points apart.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q1 2026 in South America?

Domestic rubber and construction demand held firm, and producers maintained their pricing. South America extended the uptrend that had been building since the Q3 2025 dip.

Zinc Oxide Prices in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia's strongest percentage quarter in the dataset came in Q1 2026: up 4.2% to USD 2.934/KG from USD 2.817/KG in Q4. Seasonal rubber procurement ahead of the agricultural and automotive production cycle drove demand through the quarter; zinc metal cost firming gave producers the basis to push prices. Worth keeping in mind is that the Q1 2026 level is still below the Q1 2025 opening of USD 3.025/KG. The recovery is real, but it hasn't yet closed the full gap from 2025.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q1 2026 in Southeast Asia?

Seasonal rubber and automotive procurement firmed through the quarter, and zinc metal costs gave producers a basis to move prices. That combination produced the 4.2% Q1 gain, the largest quarterly percentage advance among the three regions.

For the Quarter Ending December 2025

Zinc Oxide Prices Q4 2025:

• Northeast Asia: USD 2.578/KG
• South America: USD 3.340/KG
• Southeast Asia: USD 2.817/KG

Zinc Oxide Prices in Northeast Asia

Q4 2025 was the third consecutive quarterly decline for Northeast Asia, though the pace had clearly been slowing. Prices averaged USD 2.578/KG against USD 2.641/KG in Q3, a 2.4% fall that brought the cumulative 2025 decline to 13.5%. Zinc metal stayed soft through the quarter, Chinese producers kept the market comfortable, and nothing on the demand side changed the trajectory before year-end. Look at the quarterly sequence, though: -8.6% in Q2, -3.1% in Q3, -2.4% in Q4. The correction was running out of steam. Q4 turned out to be the trough.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q4 2025 in Northeast Asia?

Zinc metal softness persisted and adequate Chinese supply prevented any seasonal recovery. That pushed the cumulative 2025 decline to 13.5% by Q4, which proved to be the cycle low.

Zinc Oxide Prices in South America

The sharpest quarterly advance in the dataset came from South America in Q4 2025. Prices rose 7.8%, from USD 3.097/KG in Q3 to USD 3.340/KG. Domestic rubber sector buying picked up sharply through the quarter, construction-linked ceramics demand firmed into year-end, and producers gave nothing away on pricing. By Q4 2025, the price gap between South America and Northeast Asia had widened to USD 0.76/KG, which is a fairly useful way to measure what happens when one market has genuine downstream demand and the other doesn't.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q4 2025 in South America?

Rubber sector buying accelerated, ceramics demand firmed into year-end, and producers held their pricing. All three coincided in Q4 to produce the 7.8% advance.

Zinc Oxide Prices in Southeast Asia

Where South America was up 7.8% in Q4 2025, Southeast Asia managed only 1.3%, moving from USD 2.780/KG in Q3 to USD 2.817/KG. The gap between the two is largely a supply story: close ties to Northeast Asian producers meant competitive Chinese-origin zinc oxide was still active in export channels through the quarter, capping how much recovery could happen. Seasonal rubber buying from tyre manufacturers helped at the margin, but couldn't push prices meaningfully higher. Still, Q4 had turned the direction, and Q1 2026 built from there.

Why did the price of zinc oxide change in Q4 2025 in Southeast Asia?

Seasonal rubber buying offered some support, but competitive Chinese-origin supply kept a lid on the recovery. The 1.3% Q4 gain was modest but marked the start of the directional shift that Q1 2026 extended.

Quarterly Zinc Oxide Price Trends

A two-step fall in Q2 and Q3 2025, a partial recovery in Q4, and a continuation of that recovery in Q1 2026. The 3-region average was still 1.3% below its Q1 2025 starting point by Q1 2026, so across five quarters the net result looked roughly flat. The regional components tell a different story: South America gained 10.4% over the period, Northeast Asia lost 11.9%, and Southeast Asia fell somewhere between those two.

What was Zinc Oxide Price in 2025?

Describing 2025 zinc oxide as a single trend misses most of what actually happened. The 3-region average fell 4.4% from Q1 to Q4, but that figure concealed a regional split far wider than the headline suggested. Three forces drove the year's pricing:

• Zinc metal price softness compressed Northeast Asian production economics through the year, pushing that regional price 13.5% lower and dragging the weighted 3-region average down with it
• South American domestic rubber and construction demand held firm throughout, independent of the Asian pricing cycle, and produced a 6.7% full-year gain that ran entirely counter to the broader trend
• Freight rate normalisation and continued access to competitively priced Chinese-origin supply stripped the logistics premium from Southeast Asian prices, contributing to the region's 6.9% annual decline

Zinc Oxide Prices in Northeast Asia in 2025

Northeast Asia opened Q1 2025 at USD 2.982/KG and closed Q4 at USD 2.578/KG. Down 13.5% for the year, with every quarter in negative territory. The rate of decline had been slowing through the year, from -8.6% in Q2 to -3.1% in Q3 to -2.4% in Q4. In retrospect, that deceleration was the clearest signal the correction was running low on energy. Zinc metal weakness drove every leg, and consistent Chinese supply prevented any seasonal recovery from taking hold.

Zinc Oxide Prices in South America in 2025

South America went from USD 3.130/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 3.340/KG in Q4, up 6.7% for the year and running counter to what was happening elsewhere. The path wasn't entirely smooth: a Q2 uptick, a Q3 dip back to USD 3.097/KG, then the sharp 7.8% Q4 advance. Domestic rubber and ceramics demand provided the consistent underlying support. The region held the highest price of the three reporting areas in every single quarter.

Zinc Oxide Prices in Southeast Asia in 2025

Southeast Asia went from USD 3.025/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 2.817/KG in Q4, a 6.9% annual decline. The trajectory tracked Northeast Asia's broadly, as you'd expect given how closely the region's supply is tied to Chinese producers. The partial Q4 recovery to USD 2.817/KG from USD 2.780/KG in Q3 was the first real sign the correction was easing, and it set up the stronger Q1 2026 move.

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Expert Market Research tracks zinc oxide prices across the key producing and consuming regions, with coverage spanning zinc metal cost dynamics, rubber and ceramics sector procurement cycles, and construction-linked demand. Forecasts integrate upstream cost modeling with downstream demand analysis. Get in touch for real-time zinc oxide pricing data and strategic procurement advisory.