Zinc Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

The 6-region zinc average had opened Q1 2025 at USD 2.884/KG, fallen 4.7% by Q2 as construction buyers worked through inventory they had built up, then climbed back each quarter to reach USD 3.242/KG in Q1 2026. Net gain: 12.4%. But the headline doesn't capture what was going on underneath. Africa had ended 2025 up 17.7%, the best full-year run of the six. Australia had gained 6.4% through 2025 then jumped another 13.3% in Q1 2026 alone. Northeast Asia had spent much of 2025 in negative territory before surging 11.5% in Q1 2026. India barely moved. Same commodity, six very different stories.

Zinc comes from sphalerite ores, gets refined into metal, and most of what gets produced ends up galvanising steel for corrosion protection. Die-casting alloys and battery applications take the rest. LME zinc had tended to pull regional prices along, though how much filtered through to each market had depended on local freight, import duties, and the supply-demand picture at the time. Northeast Asia had held the top spot for most of the period. Africa's move to second-highest by Q4 2025 was arguably the more notable development. India had stayed at the lower end, in part because domestic smelter capacity had kept a floor under price swings.

Zinc Price Forecast for 2026

The rest of 2026 looks modestly constructive for most of the six regions, though the extent will likely differ. Northeast Asia is in the USD 3.30 to 3.90/KG range, where battery alloy buying had been adding demand above what galvanising alone would generate. Africa should hold in the USD 3.30 to 3.80/KG range, given the LME transmission link that had pushed 2025 prices hadn't reversed. Australia is in the USD 3.20 to 3.70/KG range, with Northeast Asian smelter demand for concentrate as the key swing factor. Europe and North America should see moderate infrastructure-linked gains. India stays the most stable. A Chinese construction pullback is the main downside risk.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Zinc Prices Q1 2026:

• Europe: USD 2.982/KG
• North America: USD 3.147/KG
• Africa: USD 3.493/KG
• Australia: USD 3.396/KG
• Northeast Asia: USD 3.524/KG
• India: USD 2.913/KG

Zinc Prices in Europe

By Q1 2026, Europe had moved to its highest price in the dataset: USD 2.982/KG, up 2.9% from USD 2.899/KG in Q4. The seasonal construction comeback had been the main thing behind it. Contractors and galvanising operations that had wound down through winter came back in early 2026, while import supply stayed steady.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

Seasonal construction galvanising demand and steady import supply had driven the 2.9% Q1 advance.

Zinc Prices in North America

North America came in at USD 3.147/KG in Q1 2026, a 5.4% gain from USD 2.987/KG in Q4. Domestic smelter supply had tightened, seasonal demand had picked up, and buyers who had been running lean through Q4 came back in with more urgency. Together they produced a fairly sharp result.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in North America?

Tighter domestic smelter supply, seasonal demand recovery, and lean inventory driving restocking produced the 5.4% Q1 advance.

Zinc Prices in Africa

Africa's Q1 2026 print was essentially flat: USD 3.493/KG against USD 3.476/KG in Q4 2025, a 0.5% move. After the 12.9% Q4 jump, the market had taken a breather. Mining supply had stayed steady, galvanising demand had held at consistent levels, and Africa had retained the second-highest regional price, just behind Northeast Asia.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in Africa?

After the sharp Q4 2025 surge, the market had consolidated. Steady mining supply and galvanising demand had held prices near the Q4 level.

Zinc Prices in Australia

Australia's Q1 2026 gain of 13.3%, from USD 2.997/KG to USD 3.396/KG, was the largest quarterly move in the dataset. Northeast Asian smelters had been stepping up procurement of zinc concentrate as their battery alloy and galvanising demand had grown. Australian supply had become the primary destination for that buying, shifting the region from the lower half of the range in Q4 to third-highest in Q1.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in Australia?

Strengthening Northeast Asian smelter demand for Australian zinc concentrate had driven the 13.3% Q1 advance, the largest quarterly gain.

Zinc Prices in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia had jumped 11.5% in Q1 2026, from USD 3.161/KG to USD 3.524/KG, the highest price in the dataset. Battery alloy procurement had picked up sharply as energy storage projects ramped up in early 2026, while construction galvanising volumes had been climbing back from the H1 2025 trough. When those two things build simultaneously, the quarterly gain tends to look outsized. Q1 2026 was precisely that.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in Northeast Asia?

Battery alloy demand and construction galvanising recovery had converged in Q1 2026, producing the 11.5% surge to the period's highest price.

Zinc Prices in India

India came in at USD 2.913/KG in Q1 2026, a contained 1.6% above USD 2.867/KG in Q4. Domestic smelter capacity had typically absorbed global price swings before they came through into local benchmarks. The 1.6% was best read as a delayed carry-over from the broader global recovery rather than anything India-specific.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q1 2026 in India?

Gradual global price recovery had transmitted into domestic benchmarks, with domestic smelter buffering keeping it to a contained 1.6%.

For the Quarter Ending December 2025

Zinc Prices Q4 2025:

• Europe: USD 2.899/KG
• North America: USD 2.987/KG
• Africa: USD 3.476/KG
• Australia: USD 2.997/KG
• Northeast Asia: USD 3.161/KG
• India: USD 2.867/KG

Zinc Prices in Europe

Europe's best quarter in the reporting period was Q4 2025: up 6.4% to USD 2.899/KG from USD 2.724/KG in Q3. Year-end infrastructure procurement had piled in, with construction buyers locking in galvanising zinc ahead of budget cycles closing. Import supply was adequate without going into surplus.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in Europe?

Year-end infrastructure procurement and adequate smelter supply had driven the 6.4% Q4 advance, the strongest quarterly European zinc gain.

Zinc Prices in North America

North America had surged 12.1% in Q4 2025, from USD 2.664/KG in Q3 to USD 2.987/KG. Construction procurement had bunched up sharply as contractors locked in galvanising zinc before year-end. Domestic mine output hadn't kept pace. Import concentrate lead times had stretched. And buyers who had sat out through Q2 and Q3 came back all at once.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in North America?

Concentrated year-end procurement, constrained domestic supply, and deferred buyers returning all at once had produced the 12.1% Q4 2025 surge.

Zinc Prices in Africa

The Q4 2025 move in the African region stood out across the whole dataset, rising from USD 3.080/KG to USD 3.476/KG. The H2 2025 LME zinc recovery had come through directly into the African region benchmark pricing, with construction-linked galvanising demand adding to the momentum. By Q4, the region of Africa had moved to the highest price in the dataset as we can see even going ahead of Northeast Asia.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in Africa?

LME zinc price recovery had worked its way into African benchmarks and regional galvanising demand had firmed through Q4. The 12.9% was Africa's largest quarterly gain.

Zinc Prices in Australia

Australia averaged USD 2.997/KG in Q4 2025, up 8.7% from USD 2.758/KG in Q3. Improving zinc concentrate export demand from Northeast Asian smelters, alongside firming LME zinc prices, had pushed it higher. Mine production had run at steady levels; the improvement had come from demand. Q4 had brought Australian pricing in line with North America for the first time.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in Australia?

Improving Northeast Asian smelter demand for zinc concentrate and firming LME zinc prices had driven the 8.7% Q4 advance in Australia.

Zinc Prices in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia had gained 2.2% in Q4, going from USD 3.092/KG in Q3 to USD 3.161/KG. Not a big move for a region that had held among the highest prices throughout 2025. Galvanising and die-casting demand had absorbed supply, battery sector buying had started building, and Q4 had been more of a consolidation than a directional statement.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in Northeast Asia?

Steady galvanising and die-casting demand and early battery sector buying supported the 2.2% Q4 gain.

Zinc Prices in India

India had put in an 8.7% gain in Q4 2025, from USD 2.637/KG to USD 2.867/KG. Lagged transmission of the broader zinc recovery into domestic benchmarks had been the main driver, with infrastructure-linked galvanised steel procurement providing the demand backdrop. The Q4 gain had taken India roughly back to where it started the year.

Why did the price of zinc change in Q4 2025 in India?

Infrastructure procurement and lagged global price recovery had produced the 8.7% Q4 gain, returning India to near its Q1 2025 opening level.

Quarterly Zinc Price Trends

The six-quarter picture traces a clean U-shape: USD 2.884/KG in Q1 2025, down to USD 2.749/KG in Q2, then three straight quarterly gains through to USD 3.242/KG in Q1 2026. Net gain: 12.4%. Australia and Northeast Asia had led on magnitude in Q1 2026; India and Africa had been the most contained.

What was Zinc Price in 2025?

The 2025 zinc year had two distinct halves. The 6-region average had pulled back 4.7% in Q2 as the construction sector inventory correction ran its course, then reversed and gained more than it had lost over the following three quarters. Full-year gain: 6.3%. Three things had shaped the year:

• A Q2 inventory correction in construction and galvanising sectors had pulled the 6-region average 4.7% lower before H2 demand recovery reversed the move
• Africa had posted the strongest full-year 2025 gain at 17.7% on LME price transmission and regional galvanising demand; Australia had gained 6.4% on improving Northeast Asian smelter demand for zinc concentrate
• India and Europe had tracked the broader uptrend with greater containment, while Northeast Asia had declined 4.0% before recovering sharply in Q1 2026

Zinc Prices in Europe in 2025

From USD 2.621/KG in Q1 to USD 2.899/KG in Q4, a 10.6% full-year gain. A modest Q2 rise, Q3 consolidation, then the 6.4% Q4 advance on year-end construction procurement.

Zinc Prices in North America in 2025

From USD 2.748/KG in Q1 to USD 2.987/KG in Q4, an 8.7% full-year gain. The intra-year range had been wide: -7.0% in Q2, partial Q3 recovery, then the 12.1% Q4 surge on concentrated construction procurement.

Zinc Prices in Africa in 2025

From USD 2.953/KG in Q1 to USD 3.476/KG in Q4, a 17.7% full-year gain and the strongest annual performance of the six regions. After a 3.9% Q2 dip, prices had risen through H2: +8.6% in Q3, +12.9% in Q4, on LME zinc recovery and regional galvanising demand growth.

Zinc Prices in Australia in 2025

From USD 2.817/KG in Q1 to USD 2.997/KG in Q4, a 6.4% full-year gain. After a 3.0% Q2 dip and near-flat Q3, prices had surged 8.7% in Q4 as Northeast Asian smelter demand for Australian zinc concentrate had picked up.

Zinc Prices in Northeast Asia in 2025

From USD 3.292/KG in Q1 to USD 3.161/KG in Q4, a 4.0% annual decline. H1 had been soft on construction sector weakness; H2 had recovered. The Q2 dip of 4.8% had been the defining event, and prices had already turned 2.2% higher in Q4 before Q1 2026.

Zinc Prices in India in 2025

From USD 2.872/KG in Q1 to USD 2.867/KG in Q4, essentially flat at -0.2% for the year. A 10.1% Q2 dip had been followed by gradual recovery through Q3 and Q4. Domestic smelter capacity and steady galvanising demand had explained the muted volatility.

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