Walnut Market Size, Share and Growth Analysis Report - Forecast Trends and Outlook (2026-2035)

The global walnut market reached around 1127.95 KMT in 2025. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.80% between 2026 and 2035 to reach nearly 1637.81 KMT by 2035.

Latest News on the Walnut Market (2026)

April 2026: California Walnut Commission Drives Global Market Diversification Strategy

The California Walnut Commission detailed an aggressive market diversification push in 2026, supported by USD 3.65 million in Market Access Programme funding secured in February. January shipments to Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates rose 261% and 253% year-on-year respectively, West Coast Nut reported, helping the industry reduce dependence on traditional European markets amid persistent trade frictions with China.

March 2026: USDA Data Signals Continued Walnut Acreage Pullback

USDA acreage data referenced in early 2026 industry coverage by The Packer indicated continued walnut acreage reductions across California, with growers removing older orchards in response to multiple loss-making seasons. Industry executives expect tighter supply to support firmer farmgate prices through the 2026-27 marketing year, though competition from rapidly expanding production in China and Chile continues to weigh on US export market share.

Q1 2026 Market Updates

Geopolitical Impact of Iran, US, and Israel War on the Walnut Market

United States: The Walnut Market, a key segment of the global economy, is experiencing a complex operating environment in Q1 2026 as a direct consequence of the US-Israel-Iran war. 31 force majeure declarations by polymer suppliers, polypropylene and polyethylene price spikes, and chemical manufacturer surcharges of up to 30% are flowing through supply chains. U.S. consumer inflation is projected at 4.2% for 2026, above pre-war forecasts, with fuel costs above USD 4 per gallon compressing household discretionary budgets. Retail supply chains are absorbing the combined impact of 30% higher freight costs, 15-20% packaging material inflation, and rising transport fuel costs, compressing retailer margins. Consumer spending caution is growing as gasoline above USD 4 per gallon and 4.2% projected inflation compress household discretionary budgets.

Iran: Iran's domestic Walnut sector has been effectively suspended by the conflict. US-Israeli strikes on industrial and civilian infrastructure across Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and other major cities have disrupted all commercial activity. Power outages from attacks on electricity generation facilities have halted manufacturing operations, and the collapse of the commercial banking and logistics system has eliminated any residual trade flows. The broader humanitarian crisis, with over 1,900 casualties and 4,000+ civilian buildings damaged, has redirected the entire Iranian economy toward survival rather than production or consumption.

Israel: Israel's Walnut sector is experiencing near-term disruption from wartime conditions. Consumer spending on non-essential categories has declined as millions of Israelis regularly shelter from missile and drone alerts. Supply chain logistics are disrupted by regional airspace closures, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and the suspension of major carrier services through the region. International business partnerships with Israeli companies have been temporarily suspended. Post-conflict reconstruction and recovery demand is expected to provide meaningful demand acceleration across affected market segments once operational conditions normalise.

Market Size & Forecast

• Market Size in 2025: 1127.95 KMT
• Projected Market Size in 2035: 1637.81 KMT
• CAGR from 2026 to 2035: 3.80%