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Forecast Period
Germany held its position at the top of this report through the first half, though even there the premium bled. CSM slid about 2.5 percent, from USD 4040/MT in the first quarter to USD 3940/MT in the second, and the cause sat on the cost side, not demand. This is a feedstock-led market before anything else, since polyethylene sets the price floor and the rest of the chain negotiates around it. Cheaper polyethylene feedstock dragged the base lower, roofing had a flat season and offered nothing to push back with, and the modest restock that came through was far too thin to reverse either dynamic. The global average moved similarly on a smaller scale, USD 3550/MT to USD 3460/MT, a matching 2.5 percent decline. Our call for the second half is a band of USD 3250 to 3550/MT. Fresh Chinese polyethylene keeps feedstock cheap, and that discount runs directly down the chain to finished rubber.
The trade still refers to it as Hypalon, after the original brand name, and shortens the rest to CSM. It's a specialty synthetic rubber, produced by treating polyethylene with chlorine and sulfur dioxide, and the resulting material shrugs off ozone, heat, weathering, and harsh chemicals remarkably well. The firm that originally owned that brand name walked away from the business years ago. Chinese plants now cover most of the global market, with a single high-grade Japanese source filling out the rest. Wire and cable jacketing is by far the biggest outlet, roughly a quarter to a third of consumption, and after that come automotive and industrial hoses and belts, single-ply roofing membranes, and coated fabrics. Four factors set the price: polyethylene feedstock, chlorine and energy, automotive and construction activity, and how hard Chinese producers choose to run their plants. One caveat before benchmarking against this data: the high-grade Japanese material, along with the bio-based route now taking shape, prices on its own logic and doesn't really track the commodity number.
The second half leans in the buyer's favor. China is sitting on plenty of spare capacity, a fresh wave of polyethylene is landing, and together they keep grinding the cost floor down, while roofing and construction demand offer nothing to lean on. What keeps this orderly rather than violent is the steady pull from automotive and cable, which rarely stumbles. So a gradual slide, not a sharp drop. The takeaway for procurement is plain: a rally not backed by a genuine feedstock squeeze tends not to hold, because Chinese supply steps in fast enough to cap it.
What would push prices higher? A chlorine or power disruption at Chinese plants, or a harder environmental crackdown on chlorinated rubber, either would lift production costs above range, and that's the risk we'd watch first. The downside is just as plausible: a deeper polyethylene glut, or another leg down in construction, and prices slip under the band. If one thread deserves watching above the rest, it's roofing. Construction decides whether the drift halts here or runs on.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/MT) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 3250 - 3550 | Polyethylene oversupply caps a soft, drifting range |
| China | 2950 - 3200 | Large domestic capacity keeps China the most affordable |
| United States | 3450 - 3750 | Cable and industrial demand hold a firm middle |
| Germany | 3850 - 4150 | Energy and import costs maintain the premium |
| India | 3250 - 3550 | Growing cable and auto demand support a firm middle |
Fresh domestic polyethylene did most of the work in China through the second quarter. It cut the feedstock cost under finished CSM and left producers little reason to hold their line, and with plants fighting hard for a thin pool of orders, the saving flowed to buyers, not margin. The average landed at USD 3030/MT, about 2.3 percent below the first quarter's USD 3100/MT. Cable and automotive offtake stayed firm enough to clear the volume, but construction was soft, roofing stayed quiet, and there was nothing to resist the cost-led drift.
The US moved lower this quarter, driven by imports. Reduced Chinese offers combined with a softer global polyethylene chain fed directly into landed costs, and the average came to USD 3520/MT, about 2.5 percent under the first quarter's USD 3610/MT. Grid and electrification projects kept wire and cable buyers ordering at a steady clip, while roofing demand went essentially nowhere. Importers who suspected still-cheaper Asian material was on the way were in no particular hurry to sign fresh contracts either, which gave the cost decline a clean, uninterrupted run.
Not even the priciest market in the group could stand apart. Germany closed the second quarter at USD 3940/MT, roughly 2.5 percent under the first quarter's USD 4040/MT. The European premium, built on high energy and import costs, held its shape but had no answer to cheaper global feedstock and a weak construction backdrop. Automotive and hose volumes kept their level, roofing demand stayed thin, so nothing pushed back as offers eased. The gap to China is structural here, not cyclical, so it tracks feedstock lower without ever narrowing.
India carried the healthiest underlying demand of the four markets, with cable and automotive consumption still growing through the quarter, yet the price fell along with everyone else regardless. Cheaper Chinese imports combined with a softer polyethylene chain set offers lower, and buyers who could cover their needs from competitive Asian supply had no real reason to pay up. The average landed at USD 3340/MT, down about 2.6 percent from USD 3430/MT.
The first quarter actually broke the downtrend, though only for one reading. A post-holiday restock coincided with a brief early-year squeeze in polyethylene supply, and the two together lifted the cost floor just as cable and automotive orders came back from the winter lull. That combination gave producers room to raise their offers, and China firmed to USD 3100/MT, about 1.6 percent over the fourth quarter of 2025's USD 3050/MT.
Restocking activity really did the talking in the US over that same stretch. Cable and industrial buyers had run inventory down toward year-end and came back into the market to rebuild it, and with firmer Asian offers feeding into landed costs at the same time, the seasonal lift held rather than fading away. The average edged up to USD 3610/MT, roughly 1.4 percent above the fourth quarter of 2025's USD 3560/MT.
Germany worked through its familiar winter pattern this quarter. Higher energy costs combined with a post-holiday restock to pull prices up off the year-end low, and automotive and hose buyers renewing their annual contracts layered further support on top of that. The average rose about 1.5 percent to USD 4040/MT from USD 3980/MT in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a local high for the market.
India read from that same early-year script. Import offers landed firmer, the restocking cycle got under way as the new year opened, and growing cable and automotive demand stood behind the underlying buying activity. Prices firmed to USD 3430/MT, up around 1.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2025's USD 3380/MT.
Looking back across six quarters, the price mostly leaked lower, a steady build in polyethylene supply against a construction sector that wouldn't fire. The one clean interruption was a short restocking bounce in early 2026. In order: USD 3670/MT in Q2 2025, USD 3550/MT in Q3, USD 3490/MT in Q4, up to USD 3550/MT in Q1 2026, then down to USD 3460/MT in Q2. Net, about 5.7 percent off. Our read is that feedstock oversupply and weak roofing set the pattern, and neither has moved.
| Quarter | Price (USD/MT) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 3460 | -2.5% | ↓ Falling |
| Q1 2026 | 3550 | +1.7% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 3490 | -1.7% | ↓ Falling |
| Q3 2025 | 3550 | -3.3% | ↓ Falling |
| Q2 2025 | 3670 | - | Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | In Progress |
2025 was a year of steady erosion. Polyethylene supply loosened, construction demand never showed, and prices softened to match. Firm to open, then a bleed through the middle quarters as new feedstock arrived and roofing offtake fell short, before flattening near a low into the fourth. Globally the average ran from about USD 3780/MT in the first quarter down to USD 3490/MT by the fourth, call it 7.7 percent on the year. Three forces wrote it: feedstock oversupply, soft construction, and Chinese producers competing hard on price.
China led the market decline through 2025. Expanding polyethylene capacity dropped the cost floor progressively as the year wore on, and with domestic CSM makers locked in an active price war, those savings reached buyers quickly, carrying the average from about USD 3300/MT in the first quarter of 2025 down to USD 3050/MT by the fourth, a drop of nearly 7.6 percent. Cable demand held up reasonably well throughout, while weak construction activity capped roofing-grade offtake.
Cheaper Asian supply combined with a softer global polyethylene market kept pulling landed costs down in the US throughout 2025, dragging the average from roughly USD 3850/MT in the first quarter down to USD 3560/MT by the fourth, off about 7.5 percent. Cable and industrial demand ticked along steadily the whole year while roofing stayed weak, so a falling feedstock chain combined with plentiful imports really set the annual number here.
Germany's premium, built on persistently high energy costs, gave it no real way out of this broader trend. European offers stayed above the rest of the pack throughout the year, yet cheaper global feedstock and weak construction activity pulled the overall level lower month by month regardless, and prices fell from about USD 4300/MT in the first quarter of 2025 to USD 3980/MT by the fourth, a decline of nearly 7.4 percent. Automotive and hose demand held steady throughout the entire year despite that broader softening.
For India, the direction really came from outside its own borders. Cheaper Chinese imports set the tone even as domestic cable and automotive demand continued growing, and buyers leaned on competitive Asian supply throughout the entire year, so the average eased from around USD 3650/MT in the first quarter of 2025 to USD 3380/MT by the fourth, roughly a 7.4 percent decline.
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Chlorosulphonated Polyethylene Rubber Price Intelligence
At Expert Market Research, we keep a continuous read on CSM prices, across every major producing and consuming region. Our team traces the entire chain of cause and effect, from polyethylene economics through chlorine and energy costs, shifts in Chinese capacity, and the swings in automotive, cable, and construction demand that push this market around quarter to quarter. Our forecasts lean on feedstock trend data, capacity utilisation, trade flow analysis, and region-by-region demand reads. If you need pricing data, tailored analysis, or procurement advisory built around your own sourcing decisions, reach out to our team.
*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*
Wire and cable jacketing is really the big one here, accounting for roughly a quarter to a third of total demand. Automotive and industrial hoses and belts follow after that, along with single-ply roofing membranes and coated fabrics.
In the second quarter of 2026, CSM averaged USD 3030/MT in China, USD 3520/MT in the United States, USD 3940/MT in Germany, and USD 3340/MT in India. FOB China is generally treated as the benchmark.
The global average slipped from about USD 3780/MT in the first quarter of 2025 to USD 3490/MT by the fourth, roughly a 7.7 percent decline, as polyethylene oversupply ran headlong into soft construction demand.
New polyethylene capacity lowered the underlying feedstock floor, construction and roofing demand stayed weak throughout the year, and Chinese producers competing aggressively on price passed those savings straight through to buyers.
We expect the global average to hold inside a range of USD 3250 to 3550/MT through the second half, with fresh polyethylene capacity keeping feedstock costs soft and steady cable and automotive demand setting a floor underneath.
China sits at the bottom of the range owing to its large domestic capacity, Germany sits at the top on energy and import costs, and the United States and India both settle into a firm middle position.
This data updates monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, reaching out to the Expert Market Research team is the quickest way to get it.
Polyethylene and chlorine costs lead the way here, working alongside energy prices, Chinese capacity utilisation levels, and whatever automotive, cable, and construction happen to be doing on the demand side.
China carries the largest production capacity by a considerable distance, with one high-grade Japanese source operating alongside it, so any shift in Chinese feedstock costs or output tends to ripple through every regional market we track within a quarter or two.
Procurement teams should use the quarterly trend and forecast to time contracts, treat polyethylene as the lead cost signal worth watching closely, and lean on competitive Chinese supply whenever landed costs are falling.
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