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Coconut Oil Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Coconut oil prices in Germany, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 7.1% in H1 2026, recovering from USD 1.96/KG in Q1 to USD 2.10/KG by Q2 as Southeast Asian crop tightening from La Nina weather pattern disruption and recovering food and oleochemical sector demand reversed the H2 2025 Philippine oversupply-driven softening. Globally, the average rose from USD 1.449/KG in Q1 to USD 1.550/KG in Q2, a 7.0% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 1.56-1.76/KG is expected, with continued firming on Southeast Asian crop disruptions and growing food, personal care, and oleochemical sector demand.
Coconut oil is produced through wet or dry processing of copra, the dried kernel flesh of the coconut palm fruit, grown predominantly in the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka. Dry processing involves sun or smoke drying of coconut meat to produce copra, which is then mechanically pressed or solvent extracted, while wet processing uses fresh coconut milk centrifugation or fermentation to recover the oil directly. The largest pull comes from food applications, where coconut oil is used as a tropical cooking medium, a functional food ingredient in lauric acid-rich nutrition products, and a dairy fat extender in confectionery and baked goods. Additional demand comes from personal care and cosmetic formulations as a moisturising emollient and hair conditioning agent, oleochemical fatty acid and glycerine production, biodiesel feedstock applications, pharmaceutical excipient formulations, and artisanal soap manufacturing. Philippine and Indonesian copra yields, El Nino and La Nina weather cycle impacts, crude palm kernel oil price benchmarks, and lauric fatty acid derivative demand all feed into the price.
Coconut Oil Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of supply and demand for coconut oil through H2 2026 leans moderately firm. Southeast Asian copra production tightened with La Nina weather impacts across the Philippines and Indonesia. Food, personal care, and oleochemical sector demand is growing with expanding health-food trends and lauric acid derivative applications.
The main upside risk is a sharp La Nina crop disruption in the Philippines alongside accelerating lauric acid oleochemical demand from personal care market growth. The main downside risk is a recovery in Philippine and Indonesian copra production and competitive palm kernel oil pricing that limits the global price recovery.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/KG) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 1.56 - 1.76 | Copra tightening and food/personal care demand support |
| United States | 1.66 - 1.86 | Steady food and personal care demand holds it firm |
| China | 1.18 - 1.38 | Competitive import sourcing keeps it the most affordable |
| Germany | 2.06 - 2.26 | Higher logistics and energy costs keep it the most expensive |
| India | 1.54 - 1.74 | Growing food and oleochemical demand holds a firm middle |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Coconut Oil Prices Q2 2026:
- United States: USD 1.76/KG
- China: USD 1.24/KG
- Germany: USD 2.10/KG
- India: USD 1.62/KG
Coconut Oil Prices in the United States
US coconut oil prices averaged USD 1.76/KG in Q2 2026, up 7.3% from USD 1.64/KG in Q1 2026. La Nina-related Philippine copra supply tightening elevated import costs. Food manufacturing, personal care, and oleochemical sector procurement maintained consistent buying through the quarter.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q2 2026 in the United States?
La Nina weather impacts tightened Philippine and Indonesian copra supply, elevating the import cost of coconut oil. Food manufacturing and personal care emollient procurement lifted buying from importers. Oleochemical and lauric acid derivative sector demand provided additional consistent buying support.
Coconut Oil Prices in China
Chinese coconut oil prices averaged USD 1.24/KG in Q2 2026, up 6.9% from USD 1.16/KG in Q1 2026, the lowest among the tracked markets. Spring food and personal care procurement lifted buying. Philippine copra tightening elevated import costs despite competitive multi-origin import sourcing.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q2 2026 in China?
Spring food and personal care procurement lifted buying from importers. Philippine and Indonesian copra tightening elevated the imported coconut oil cost. Competitive multi-origin import sourcing maintained China as the most affordable market.
Coconut Oil Prices in Germany
German coconut oil prices averaged USD 2.10/KG in Q2 2026, up 7.1% from USD 1.96/KG in Q1 2026, the highest among the tracked markets. Southeast Asian copra tightening and higher European logistics costs elevated the delivered cost. Food manufacturing, personal care, and oleochemical demand maintained consistent buying.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
Southeast Asian copra tightening elevated the imported coconut oil cost. Higher European logistics and energy costs added further price elevation. Consistent food manufacturing, personal care emollient, and oleochemical lauric acid demand maintained consistent procurement.
Coconut Oil Prices in India
Indian coconut oil prices averaged USD 1.62/KG in Q2 2026, up 7.3% from USD 1.51/KG in Q1 2026. Growing food and oleochemical demand supported buying. Southeast Asian copra tightening elevated the import-linked price floor through the quarter.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q2 2026 in India?
Growing food and oleochemical fatty acid demand lifted procurement. Southeast Asian copra tightening elevated import-linked costs. Expanding personal care and soap manufacturing demand provided additional consistent buying support.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Coconut Oil Prices Q1 2026:
- United States: USD 1.64/KG
- China: USD 1.16/KG
- Germany: USD 1.96/KG
- India: USD 1.51/KG
Coconut Oil Prices in the United States
US coconut oil prices averaged USD 1.64/KG in Q1 2026, recovering from the H2 2025 oversupply trough. Recovering food and personal care demand and firmer copra costs held the production floor near USD 1.64/KG.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Recovering food manufacturing and personal care demand lifted procurement. Firmer Philippine copra costs raised the import price floor. The market recovered to USD 1.64/KG from the H2 2025 Philippine oversupply trough.
Coconut Oil Prices in China
Chinese prices averaged USD 1.16/KG in Q1 2026, recovering from Q4 2025. Post-Lunar New Year food and personal care restocking and firmer copra import costs held the market near USD 1.16/KG.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q1 2026 in China?
Post-Lunar New Year food and personal care restocking lifted buying. Firmer Philippine copra import costs raised the price floor. The market recovered to USD 1.16/KG from the Q4 2025 oversupply low.
Coconut Oil Prices in Germany
German prices averaged USD 1.96/KG in Q1 2026, recovering from H2 2025. Recovering food and oleochemical demand and firmer copra import costs held the market near USD 1.96/KG.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
Recovering food manufacturing and oleochemical demand lifted procurement. Firmer Southeast Asian copra import costs raised the production floor. The market recovered to USD 1.96/KG from the H2 2025 oversupply low.
Coconut Oil Prices in India
Indian prices averaged USD 1.51/KG in Q1 2026, recovering from H2 2025. Growing food and oleochemical demand and firmer copra costs supported the recovery near USD 1.51/KG.
Why did the price of Coconut Oil change in Q1 2026 in India?
Growing food, soap, and oleochemical demand lifted procurement. Firmer domestic and imported copra costs raised the price floor. The market recovered to USD 1.51/KG from the H2 2025 oversupply low.
Quarterly Coconut Oil Price Trends
Global coconut oil prices declined through H2 2025 on Philippine post-El Nino copra oversupply before recovering firmly through Q1 and Q2 2026. The average fell from USD 1.450/KG in Q2 2025 to USD 1.421/KG in Q3 and USD 1.393/KG in Q4, then recovered to USD 1.449/KG in Q1 2026 and USD 1.550/KG in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 6.9% over the window. Philippine copra production cycles and La Nina weather pattern impacts drove the H2 2025 pressure and H1 2026 recovery.
| Quarter | Price (USD/KG) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 1.550 | +7.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 1.449 | +4.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 1.393 | -2.0% | ↓ Falling |
| Q3 2025 | 1.421 | -2.0% | ↓ Falling |
| Q2 2025 | 1.450 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Coconut Oil Price in 2025?
Coconut oil prices declined through H2 2025 as Philippine copra supply recovered strongly from the prior year El Nino disruption. The global average opened at USD 1.468/KG in Q1 2025 and closed near USD 1.393/KG in Q4, a full-year decline of about 5.1%. Abundant Philippine copra supply and competitive palm kernel oil benchmarks maintained a well-supplied global market before the H1 2026 La Nina-driven crop tightening.
Coconut Oil Prices in the United States in 2025
US prices fell from about USD 1.65/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.58/KG by Q4, a decline of 4.2%. Ample Philippine copra supply and competitive import pricing maintained the H2 downward trend.
Coconut Oil Prices in China in 2025
Chinese prices fell from roughly USD 1.18/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.12/KG by Q4, a decline of 5.1%, the steepest in the dataset. Competitive multi-origin import sourcing and Philippine oversupply maintained the lowest price level throughout.
Coconut Oil Prices in Germany in 2025
German prices fell from about USD 1.98/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.88/KG by Q4, a decline of 5.1%. Abundant Philippine and Indonesian copra supply maintained competitive imported coconut oil pricing throughout the year.
Coconut Oil Prices in India in 2025
Indian prices fell from roughly USD 1.52/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.45/KG by Q4, a decline of 4.6%. Competitive domestic and imported copra pricing maintained downward pressure despite consistent food and soap sector demand.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Coconut Oil Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks coconut oil prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces causation through Philippine and Indonesian copra production cycles, El Nino and La Nina weather impacts, and food, personal care, and oleochemical sector demand dynamics. Contact Expert Market Research today for coconut oil pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*
Key Questions Answered in the Report
Food applications as a tropical cooking medium, functional nutrition ingredient, and confectionery fat extender take the largest share. Personal care and cosmetic emollient and hair conditioning use, oleochemical fatty acid and glycerine production, biodiesel feedstock, pharmaceutical excipients, and artisanal soap manufacturing also consume significant volumes.
The Q2 2026 average was USD 1.76/KG in the United States, USD 1.24/KG in China, USD 2.10/KG in Germany, and USD 1.62/KG in India. Germany remains the highest-priced market.
The global average rose from USD 1.449/KG in Q1 to about USD 1.550/KG in Q2, a gain of around 7.0%. La Nina-related Philippine copra tightening and recovering food and oleochemical demand drove the H1 rebound from the H2 2025 oversupply trough.
Philippine copra supply recovered strongly from the prior year El Nino disruption, building surplus inventory. Competitive palm kernel oil benchmarks maintained alternative sourcing pressure. Adequate global supply kept prices at multi-quarter lows.
The global average is expected in the USD 1.56 to 1.76/KG range for H2 2026, with continued firming as La Nina tightens copra supply and food, personal care, and oleochemical demand grows.
Germany sits highest on Southeast Asian logistics and European energy costs, the United States and India hold a firm middle on food and personal care demand, and China prices lowest on competitive multi-origin import sourcing.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
Prices respond mainly to Philippine and Indonesian copra yields, El Nino and La Nina weather cycle impacts, palm kernel oil benchmark pricing, and food and personal care sector demand. Philippine typhoon season and weather pattern forecasts are key signals.
Asia Pacific leads with the Philippines and Indonesia together accounting for the majority of global coconut oil exports, followed by India and Sri Lanka. Any Philippines or Indonesia copra production change ripples across global coconut oil markets within one to two quarters.
Buyers can use quarterly trends and forecasts to time food and personal care contracts around copra crop cycles, build cover when La Nina forecasts signal tightening, and monitor Philippine typhoon and weather pattern reports as the primary supply signal.
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