DAP Price Trend Report and Forecast 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

• The DAP price trend in 2025 was overwhelmingly bullish, with DAP prices surging approximately 23% globally,led by India’s extraordinary Q3 spike of +17.98%.
• The DAP market was driven by Chinese phosphate export restrictions, rising input costs (ammonia and sulphur), strong seasonal agricultural demand, and government subsidy programmes across developing economies.
• The DAP forecast for 2026 projects an 8% price decline as new capacity comes online and supply pressures ease, though trade restrictions and input cost volatility could limit downside.
• DAP cost is fundamentally shaped by phosphoric acid and ammonia pricing, with energy costs, trade policies, and seasonal planting cycles creating significant quarterly volatility.

Introduction: Why DAP Matters

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) is the world’s most widely traded phosphate fertiliser, supplying both nitrogen (18%) and phosphorus (46%) in a single granule. As a cornerstone of global food security, DAP underpins crop productivity for staples including rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. The DAP market is shaped by seasonal planting cycles, government subsidy policies, raw material costs, and trade flow dynamics between major exporters (China, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia) and importers (India, Brazil, Africa).

The DAP forecast is uniquely influenced by two upstream inputs: phosphoric acid (derived from phosphate rock and sulphuric acid) and ammonia. China’s export restrictions on phosphate products-driven by domestic food security priorities and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery feedstock demand-have fundamentally reshaped global DAP cost dynamics since 2024, making trade policy the single most important variable in any DAP market outlook.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; World Bank

Key Sectors Driving DAP Demand

Agriculture and Food Production: The dominant demand driver, with DAP applied across cereal crops, oilseeds, pulses, and horticulture globally. India alone imported 5.95 million tonnes of DAP in April–December 2025, well above 4.13 million tonnes in the prior year period

Chlor-Alkali and Industrial Chemicals: Phosphoric acid derivatives from DAP production feed into water treatment, flame retardants, and food-grade phosphates, supporting industrial-segment DAP market demand.

Animal Feed Supplements: DAP-derived dicalcium phosphate is used in livestock nutrition, adding a premium-priced secondary demand channel that supports DAP forecast growth in specialty segments.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

Global DAP Market Overview

The global DAP market continues to expand, supported by strong fertiliser consumption in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The World Bank’s fertiliser price index rose approximately 7% in 2025, with DAP and TSP leading gains at 23% and 43% respectively. Key producers include OCP Group (Morocco), Mosaic Company (USA), PhosAgro (Russia), SABIC/Ma’aden (Saudi Arabia), and multiple Chinese manufacturers operating under export restrictions. India remains the world’s largest DAP importer, with Brazil and African nations representing fast-growing demand centres.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; World Bank

What Drove DAP Prices in 2025?

• Chinese Export Restrictions: China’s phosphate export curbs-driven by domestic food security and LFP battery feedstock priorities-sharply constrained global supply, pushing DAP cost higher across all importing regions.
• Rising Input Costs: Liquid sulphur prices nearly tripled since end-2024, while ammonia costs rose ~15%, directly inflating DAP cost throughout the production chain.
• Strong Agricultural Demand: Indian, Brazilian, and African fertiliser consumption surged on favourable monsoon conditions, expanded acreage, and government subsidy support in the DAP market.
• EU Tariffs on Russian Fertilisers: The EU imposed tariffs on Russian fertiliser imports from July 2025, redirecting trade flows to Brazil and India and tightening European supply, a key factor in the DAP forecast for the region.
• Low Starting Inventories: North American DAP inventories began 2025 at historically low levels, amplifying price sensitivity to seasonal demand spikes for the DAP forecast period.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; World Bank

Regional DAP Price Trend 2025

India

India recorded the strongest DAP cost gains globally, with Q3’s extraordinary 17.98% surge-the single largest quarterly gain in any region. India imported 5.95 million tonnes of DAP in April–December 2025, up 44% year-on-year, rebuilding inventories from historic lows. CFR prices peaked at approximately USD 810/tonne in August before correcting. The DAP forecast for India remains tied to monsoon performance and government subsidy policy.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

North America

North America showed the most consistently bullish DAP price trend, gaining in every quarter with a cumulative increase of approximately 28%. Gulf DAP prices rose from ~USD 583/tonne in January to ~USD 800 by August. Low starting inventories, strong spring planting demand, and global supply constraints amplified DAP cost throughout the year. The DAP forecast for North America points to continued seasonal strength.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

Europe

European DAP cost surged through Q2–Q3 on rising input prices and EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser imports that redirected trade flows. However, Q4’s sharp 9.36% correction-the steepest quarterly decline-reflected inventory destocking and seasonal demand weakness. The DAP market in Europe faces ongoing structural adjustment as Russian supply redirects toward Asia and Latin America.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

Middle East

Middle Eastern pricing surged 21.69% cumulatively through Q3 as Saudi and Jordanian producers benefited from global supply tightness created by Chinese restrictions. This marked one of the strongest regional movements in the DAP price trend globally. Q4’s correction was moderate, leaving full-year gains substantial. The DAP forecast for this region projects continued strength as Middle Eastern exporters fill the gap left by constrained Chinese volumes.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

China and Northeast Asia

Chinese DAP pricing was the most subdued globally (+4.73% cumulative), as export restrictions kept domestic supply ample while international prices soared. This created a significant DAP cost gap between Chinese domestic and international markets. Northeast Asian dynamics in the DAP market closely tracked China’s trajectory.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

DAP Forecast: Market Outlook FY 2026

The DAP forecast for 2026 reflects moderating but still elevated pricing:

• Global: The World Bank projects DAP prices to decline approximately 8% in 2026 as new production capacity comes online and supply pressures ease, though the DAP market remains structurally tight.
• India: Continued strong import demand expected. Government subsidy policy and monsoon performance will determine Indian DAP cost sensitivity. Inventories have been rebuilt but consumption growth persists.
• North America: Seasonal patterns expected to repeat with spring 2026 planting demand providing support. The DAP price trend will depend on winter weather severity and pre-season inventory positioning.
• Europe and Middle East: European adjustment to redirected Russian trade flows continues. Middle Eastern exporters expected to gain share in the DAP market as Chinese restrictions persist.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; World Bank

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Manufacturers

For Procurement and Sourcing Teams

• Time Purchases to Post-Harvest Troughs: Q4 corrections of 3–9% across regions offer the best annual entry points for DAP cost optimisation. Avoid peak Q3 procurement when seasonal demand inflates pricing.
• Diversify Supply Beyond China: Chinese export restrictions make reliance on Chinese volumes risky. Develop relationships with Moroccan (OCP), Saudi (Ma’aden), and Russian (PhosAgro) suppliers to stabilise DAP market exposure.
• Monitor Ammonia and Sulphur as Leading Indicators: These upstream inputs directly determine production economics. Sulphur prices nearly tripled in 2025-tracking these provides 2–3 month early warning for DAP cost shifts.
• Lock Long-Term Contracts During Q4 Windows: Year-end corrections create favourable contracting environments. Secure H1 2026 volumes during Q4 2025 pricing troughs.
• Track Indian Import Tenders: India’s state-backed procurement sets global benchmark prices. Tender outcomes signal near-term direction for the DAP forecast across all importing regions.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

For Manufacturers and End-Users

• Build Strategic Inventory During Q4 Corrections: Q4 declines of 3–9% represent cyclical buying opportunities. Accumulate reserves to buffer against Q2–Q3 seasonal DAP cost spikes.
• Evaluate Blended and Alternative Formulations: Nano-DAP and enhanced-efficiency fertilisers are gaining regulatory traction in India. Early adoption can reduce per-hectare application rates and total input costs.
• Prepare for Structural Supply Shifts: China’s pivot toward LFP battery production is permanently reallocating phosphate resources, creating a long-term structural change in the global DAP market.
• Invest in Phosphate Rock Supply Security: Vertical integration or long-term offtake agreements for phosphate rock insulate manufacturers from upstream volatility in the DAP forecast period.
• Monitor EU CBAM Implications: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism increases costs for high-carbon-footprint fertilisers, potentially reshaping trade flows and competitiveness in the European DAP forecast.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; World Bank