Methanol Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The EMR pricing report on Methanol provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In 2024, methanol benchmarks declined due to weak downstream demand across key applications such as formaldehyde, MTBE, and acetic acid, along with a softening in crude oil and coal-based methanol prices, especially in China. This price weakness narrowed arbitrage windows, discouraging exports to premium markets like Europe and limiting trade flexibility. In Q1 of 2025, methanol prices across the European market, particularly in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, experienced a sharp decline. This downward movement in methanol price trends was primarily driven by persistently weak demand from key downstream sectors such as formaldehyde, MTBE, and acetic acid.

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Methanol, the simplest form of alcohol with one carbon atom per molecule, is a toxic, colorless, tasteless liquid with a faint odor. Most often referred to as "wood alcohol," it is manufactured in liquid form, which enables it to be stored and handled much like gasoline. Although methanol is currently being manufactured from natural gas, it can also be made from a wide range of renewable sources such as wood, wastepaper, coal, and biomass. Owing to its availability and good physical and chemical properties, methanol is a strong contender for research and development in the area of alternative fuels. Additionally, methanol price trends are increasingly influencing investment decisions in production technologies and sustainable sourcing.

Methanol Price Forecast

During the first half of 2024, prices remained low because of slow demand from major downstream industries like formaldehyde, acetic acid, and olefins. Besides this, huge inventory levels and steady production levels maintained the market adequately supplied, thus putting pressure on prices. During the second half of 2024, methanol price trends picked up slightly. This was followed by planned maintenance shutdowns in a few Asian and Middle Eastern production units, which tightened the market supply globally. Demand from the downstream industries also began recovering slowly, particularly from the fuel blending and MTO industries. Nevertheless, despite this recovery, methanol price trends remained restrained, as buyers were cautious and global economic uncertainties continued to affect trading activity.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

Methanol supply chain dynamics in 2024 were dictated by chronic oversupply and subdued regional demand. Europe was well-supplied with continuous domestic production and continuous imports from the US, Trinidad, and the Middle East, as high port stocks and stable logistics guaranteed continuous cargo flow. Internationally, methanol prices fell because of weak demand from major downstream markets such as formaldehyde, MTBE, and acetic acid, along with decreasing crude oil and coal-to-methanol prices, notably in China. These circumstances reduced arbitrage margins, lowering the incentive to export to top-of-the-market destinations such as Europe and curbing trade flexibility, further influencing methanol price trends.

Globally, methanol prices have softened in the early 2025 due to dwindling demand in heavy consuming markets and decreasing crude and coal-based methanol prices, especially in China. This downtrend in methanol price trends has minimized arbitrage opportunities, keeping the export incentive low for diverting cargo to pricier markets such as Europe. Supply chains have thus stiffened, with higher volumes of product sticking around in oversupplied regions.

Feedstock Analysis

Methanol production relies significantly on natural gas and coal as a major feedstock, with geographic variations determining cost and availability. In nations such as the United States and the Middle East, natural gas is the major feedstock supported by its widespread availability and lower price, allowing competitive methanol pricing. China, on the other hand, depends significantly on methanol produced from coal, being more carbon-intensive but cheaper because of indigenous coal deposits. Disruptions in natural gas or coal supply chains, often caused by geopolitical tensions or extreme weather, directly influence methanol price trends, making production costs and profit margins highly volatile.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Methanol

The European methanol market in 2025 will continue to be pressured by weak demand and plentiful supply. Major downstream applications like formaldehyde, MTBE, and acetic acid still reflect weak consumption, as demand remains lower than pre-COVID levels. As much as construction and automotive activities creep back, they have not been enough to trigger meaningful methanol offtake. Seasonal demand for MTBE blending has also been restricted, with little support. Supply-wise, the European market is adequately supplied, with continuous domestic production and continuous imports from the US, Trinidad, and the Middle East. Port inventories within Northwest Europe have been high, and logistics operations, such as freight and vessel availability, have been uninterrupted, causing no disruptions. Worldwide, poor US and Asian pricing, especially because of declining Chinese crude oil and coal-methanol prices, has further constrained arbitrage to Europe. Overall, market fundamentals continue to support subdued methanol price trends, unless a significant recovery in downstream demand or supply disruption emerges to rebalance the market.

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