n-Butylene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

In Europe, the highest-cost reporting region, n-butylene prices surged through H1 2026, reversing a soft 2025 as Middle East supply tension pushed naphtha and crude costs sharply higher. The European average rose from USD 1,460/MT in Q1 2026 to USD 1,560/MT in Q2, a gain of about 6.8%. Globally, the average rose from USD 1,158/MT in Q1 2026 to USD 1,218/MT in Q2, a 5.2% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 1,200-1,300/MT is expected, with elevated crude and naphtha costs continuing to outweigh soft polyethylene-linked demand across most reporting regions.

n-Butylene is a linear four-carbon olefin recovered as a co-product stream from naphtha and gasoil steam cracking and from refinery catalytic cracking units, with its cost tracking crude oil and naphtha economics closely. Alkylate and gasoline blending account for the largest share of demand, with butene-1 use as a comonomer in polyethylene, oxygenate production for gasoline blending, and secondary alcohol and ketone manufacturing making up most of the remaining major applications. Crude oil and naphtha costs, refinery and steam cracker utilisation rates, polyethylene sector demand, and freight and trade flow disruptions along major shipping routes are the drivers that move price most consistently.

n-Butylene Price Forecast for 2026

The supply-demand balance for n-butylene through the remainder of 2026 leans firm, driven primarily by elevated feedstock costs rather than a genuine demand recovery. Crude oil and naphtha costs stay structurally higher following the supply tension that emerged earlier in the year, even as coordinated capacity rationalisation across Northeast Asia trims regional oversupply. Producer cost floors are firm across every reporting region, though polyethylene-linked demand remains soft.

The primary upside risk is renewed disruption to Middle East crude and naphtha supply routes, which would push feedstock costs and n-butylene prices further above the forecast range. The primary downside risk is persistent Asian polyethylene oversupply and weak derivative demand overwhelming the feedstock-driven cost increases, which would pull prices back below the forecast.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

n-Butylene Prices Q2 2026:

• Europe: USD 1,560/MT
• United States: USD 1,190/MT
• South Korea: USD 1,175/MT
• China: USD 945/MT

n-Butylene Prices in Europe

European n-butylene prices averaged USD 1,560/MT in Q2 2026, up about 6.8% from USD 1,460/MT in Q1 2026, the highest level among the four tracked markets. Continued Middle East supply tension kept imported naphtha costs elevated, sustaining the sharp upward move that began earlier in the year.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q2 2026 in Europe?

Naphtha import costs stayed elevated as Middle East supply routes remained under intermittent pressure through the quarter. Steam cracker margins stayed thin, discouraging any voluntary run-rate increase that might have eased the market. Polyethylene-linked demand stayed soft, but feedstock costs dominated the price move.

n-Butylene Prices in United States

US prices averaged USD 1,190/MT in Q2 2026, up about 4.4% from USD 1,140/MT in Q1 2026. Natural gas-advantaged cracking economics kept the increase more moderate than in naphtha-exposed regions, even as crude oil costs climbed globally.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Domestic crude and refinery-stream costs rose alongside the broader global increase. Structural US C4 supply length limited the pass-through compared with naphtha-dependent regions. Export demand for polyethylene comonomer applications added modest incremental support.

n-Butylene Prices in South Korea

South Korean prices averaged USD 1,175/MT in Q2 2026, up about 4.9% from USD 1,120/MT in Q1 2026. Direct exposure to Middle East naphtha imports kept the market firm, though coordinated regional capacity cuts limited how far the increase could extend.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q2 2026 in South Korea?

Imported naphtha costs remained elevated on continued Middle East supply tension. Regional steam cracker capacity cuts, part of a broader multi-year rationalisation programme, trimmed available supply. Weak polyethylene export demand kept the increase from extending further.

n-Butylene Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 945/MT in Q2 2026, up about 3.8% from USD 910/MT in Q1 2026. Ample domestic refinery and cracker capacity kept the market the most affordable of the four regions despite the broader global feedstock cost increase.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q2 2026 in China?

Domestic naphtha costs rose more modestly than in import-dependent regions, given China's diversified crude sourcing. Persistent polyethylene and polypropylene oversupply limited the pass-through of higher feedstock costs. Ample refinery output kept the market comfortably supplied.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

n-Butylene Prices Q1 2026:

• Europe: USD 1,460/MT
• United States: USD 1,140/MT
• South Korea: USD 1,120/MT
• China: USD 910/MT

n-Butylene Prices in Europe

European prices averaged USD 1,460/MT in Q1 2026, up sharply by about 19.2% from Q4 2025, as an escalation in Middle East supply tension sent naphtha costs surging across import-dependent markets.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

Middle East supply route tension sent naphtha import costs surging within the quarter. European crackers, heavily reliant on seaborne naphtha, passed the increase through quickly. Weak underlying demand did little to slow the feedstock-driven surge.

n-Butylene Prices in United States

US prices averaged USD 1,140/MT in Q1 2026, up about 10.1% from Q4 2025. Global crude and naphtha cost increases pushed domestic pricing higher, though natural gas-advantaged cracking economics moderated the size of the move.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Global crude cost increases lifted domestic refinery-stream economics even as US crackers remained largely ethane-based. Structural supply length in the region limited the size of the increase relative to naphtha-exposed markets. Polyethylene comonomer demand stayed steady through the quarter.

n-Butylene Prices in South Korea

South Korean prices averaged USD 1,120/MT in Q1 2026, up about 18.5% from Q4 2025, tracking the same Middle East-driven naphtha cost surge affecting Europe, given the region's heavy reliance on imported feedstock.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q1 2026 in South Korea?

Heavy reliance on imported Middle East naphtha transmitted the feedstock cost surge directly into regional pricing. Ongoing capacity rationalisation across Northeast Asia limited available supply further. Weak polyethylene export demand failed to offset the feedstock-driven increase.

n-Butylene Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 910/MT in Q1 2026, up about 6.4% from Q4 2025. A more diversified crude sourcing base moderated the impact of the Middle East supply tension relative to other tracked regions.

Why did the price of n-Butylene change in Q1 2026 in China?

Diversified crude sourcing, including non-Middle East volumes, limited the pass-through of the global naphtha cost surge. Persistent polyethylene and polypropylene oversupply continued to weigh on domestic demand. Ample refinery capacity kept the increase more contained than elsewhere.

Quarterly n-Butylene Price Trends

Global n-butylene prices eased steadily through 2025 on olefins oversupply and soft polyethylene demand, before surging in the first half of 2026 as Middle East supply tension sent crude and naphtha costs sharply higher. The average fell from USD 1,073/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,015/MT by Q4 2025, then jumped to USD 1,158/MT in Q1 2026 and USD 1,218/MT in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 13.5% across the six-quarter window. Structural oversupply drove the 2025 decline, while the 2026 feedstock cost shock drove the sharp reversal.

What was n-Butylene Price in 2025?

n-Butylene prices eased steadily through 2025 as olefins oversupply and soft polyethylene-linked demand weighed on every reporting region. The global average opened near USD 1,073/MT in Q1 2025 and fell to USD 1,015/MT by Q4, a full-year decline of about 5.4%. Weak downstream polymer demand, ample steam cracker and refinery output, and a soft crude oil price backdrop drove the sustained decline before feedstock costs reversed sharply in early 2026.

n-Butylene Prices in Europe in 2025

European prices fell from about USD 1,290/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,225/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 5.0%. Soft downstream demand and ample regional steam cracker output pressured the market lower through most of the year, ahead of the early-2026 feedstock cost reversal.

n-Butylene Prices in United States in 2025

US prices fell from about USD 1,080/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,035/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 4.2%. Structural C4 supply length and soft polyethylene comonomer demand kept the market under steady downward pressure through the year.

n-Butylene Prices in South Korea in 2025

South Korean prices fell from about USD 1,000/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 945/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 5.5%. Weak polyethylene export demand and regional olefins oversupply weighed on the market ahead of the announced capacity rationalisation programme.

n-Butylene Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices fell from about USD 920/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 855/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 7.1%, the steepest among the four tracked markets. Persistent polyethylene and polypropylene oversupply drove the sustained decline through the year.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time n-Butylene Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks n-butylene prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces causation through crude oil and naphtha feedstock economics, refinery and steam cracker utilisation shifts, freight and trade route disruptions, and downstream polyethylene and gasoline blending sector demand cycles. Forecasts draw on feedstock cost curves, capacity utilisation, and geopolitical risk assessment across all reporting regions. Contact Expert Market Research today for n-butylene pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.