Nickel Cathode Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Nickel Cathode prices in the United States, the highest-cost reporting region, jumped 7.3% in Q2 2026 to USD 22,100.00/MT from USD 20,600.00/MT in Q1, as Indonesian ore production quotas tightened supply across the entire nickel value chain. Globally, the average rose from USD 18,308.00/MT in Q1 to USD 19,604.00/MT in Q2, a 7.1% gain that pushed benchmark prices to a two-year high. That quarterly average, however, masks a genuinely volatile three months: LME cash nickel touched a two-year peak near USD 19,350.00-20,000.00/MT in May before correcting sharply in June on rumors of an Indonesian quota loosening, settling back closer to USD 16,400.00-17,100.00/MT by early Q3. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 16,500.00-19,500.00/MT is expected, a deliberately wide band that reflects genuine uncertainty over Indonesia's next policy move.

Nickel Cathode refers to Class 1 refined nickel metal, typically briquettes, cathodes, or pellets at a minimum of 99.8% purity, the LME-deliverable benchmark grade used in electroplating, superalloys for aerospace applications, and nickel-rich battery cathode precursor materials. It sits apart from the lower-purity Class 2 nickel pig iron and ferronickel used mainly in stainless steel, commanding a persistent premium tied to its purity and its role as the exchange-settled reference grade. Indonesian ore production policy, since Indonesia now dominates global supply growth, alongside Chinese and Korean stainless and battery precursor demand, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventory levels, and the pace of electric vehicle battery chemistry shifts toward nickel-rich or nickel-free formulations are what move this market.

Nickel Cathode Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Nickel Cathode through H2 2026 depends almost entirely on a single variable: whether Indonesia holds its tighter 2026 ore production targets or expands them, as some policy trackers have suggested, toward 360 million tonnes. A held quota should keep the market historically tight and support prices well above the Q2 average low point, while an expansion would reopen the supply glut that depressed prices through much of 2025.

The main upside risk is confirmation, through hard production data, that Indonesia is holding its stated flat-to-down ore targets, which could push prices back toward the May 2026 highs as the deficit narrative regains credibility. The main downside risk is an Indonesian policy reversal combined with the already-historic LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory overhang, which together could pull prices toward the lower end of the forecast band or below it.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Nickel Cathode Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 22,100.00/MT
• Germany: USD 19,900.00/MT
• South Korea: USD 19,300.00/MT
• China: USD 18,500.00/MT

Nickel Cathode Prices in the United States

US Nickel Cathode prices averaged USD 22,100.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 7.3% from USD 20,600.00/MT in Q1 as aerospace alloy buyers and IRA-compliant sourcing requirements kept a premium firmly in place even through the mid-quarter volatility.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

Indonesia's 2026 ore production target of 250 to 260 million tonnes, flat to down from 2025 levels, tightened the entire nickel value chain, and prices for ore, nickel pig iron, and refined metal all moved higher in concert, evidence of genuine tightening rather than isolated financial positioning. Aerospace alloy demand, which had been picking up since late 2025, added further support specific to the US market.

Nickel Cathode Prices in Germany

German prices averaged USD 19,900.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 7.0% from USD 18,600.00/MT in Q1, as European restocking from battery precursor producers added to the broader supply-tightening story.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

European battery precursor producers began modest restocking after a prolonged destocking phase, just as the broader Indonesian supply story tightened available tonnage. That combination pushed German prices to their strongest quarterly gain in this report's history for the commodity.

Nickel Cathode Prices in South Korea

South Korean prices averaged USD 19,300.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 7.2% from USD 18,000.00/MT in Q1, tracking the global rally closely as domestic battery precursor makers resumed restocking.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q2 2026 in South Korea?

Korean and European battery precursor producers moved roughly in step this quarter, both resuming purchases as underlying lithium supply chain inventory destocking concluded. Class 1 nickel, the grade both regions depend on for battery-grade output, was squarely at the center of the price move.

Nickel Cathode Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 18,500.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 6.9% from USD 17,300.00/MT in Q1, the largest-volume market in this report and the one most exposed to any reversal in Indonesian supply policy.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q2 2026 in China?

As the largest single consumer of nickel units globally, China felt the Indonesian supply story directly, with rising Chinese stainless mill utilization adding further demand-side pressure on top of the tightening ore picture. This is also the market most likely to give back gains quickly if Indonesian quotas are loosened.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Nickel Cathode Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 20,600.00/MT
• Germany: USD 18,600.00/MT
• South Korea: USD 18,000.00/MT
• China: USD 17,300.00/MT

Nickel Cathode Prices in the United States

US prices rose 3.5% in Q1 2026 to USD 20,600.00/MT from USD 19,900.00/MT in Q4 2025, as aerospace alloy buyers kept up steady purchases ahead of what would become a much sharper Q2 move.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

Aerospace alloy demand picked up steadily through the quarter, and the LME three-month contract itself climbed from just above USD 17,000.00/MT at the start of the quarter toward the high teens, dragging US delivered premiums up in step.

Nickel Cathode Prices in Germany

German prices rose 3.3% in Q1 2026 to USD 18,600.00/MT from USD 18,000.00/MT in Q4 2025, continuing the firmer upward push that Europe entered 2026 with.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Europe entered 2026 with a firmer upward push as regional stainless mills and precursor producers responded to early signs of tightening Indonesian ore supply, even before the sharper Q2 spike took hold.

Nickel Cathode Prices in South Korea

South Korean prices rose 3.4% in Q1 2026 to USD 18,000.00/MT from USD 17,400.00/MT in Q4 2025, as Chinese stainless mills lifted utilization and battery precursor producers began signaling restocking intent.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q1 2026 in South Korea?

Chinese stainless mills lifted utilization through the quarter, and Korean battery precursor producers began signaling the start of a modest restocking cycle after a long period of drawing down existing inventory.

Nickel Cathode Prices in China

Chinese prices rose 3.6% in Q1 2026 to USD 17,300.00/MT from USD 16,700.00/MT in Q4 2025, as the picture turned more constructive following a soft first half of 2025 for the broader nickel complex.

Why did the price of Nickel Cathode change in Q1 2026 in China?

The broader nickel market turned more constructive from the third quarter of 2025 onward, and that momentum carried into Q1 2026 as Chinese stainless steel mills increased run rates in response to firmer downstream demand.

Quarterly Nickel Cathode Price Trends

Global Nickel Cathode prices held a soft tone through the first half of 2025 before firming steadily from the third quarter onward, then accelerated sharply in Q2 2026 to a two-year quarterly high as Indonesian ore production quotas tightened the entire value chain, though the underlying month-to-month picture was considerably more volatile than the quarterly average alone suggests.

What was Nickel Cathode Price in 2025?

Nickel Cathode prices held a soft tone through the first half of 2025 as Indonesian Class 2 supply continued ramping through new processing capacity, before firming steadily from the third quarter onward as Chinese stainless utilization improved and aerospace alloy demand picked up, setting the stage for the sharp acceleration that carried into 2026.

Nickel Cathode Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices firmed from about USD 18,800.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 19,900.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 5.9%, the smallest annual gain among the four regions as this already-premium market had less room to move than the others.

Nickel Cathode Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices firmed from about USD 16,800.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 18,000.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 7.1%. Europe's firmer upward push began building through the second half of the year.

Nickel Cathode Prices in South Korea in 2025

South Korean prices firmed from about USD 16,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 17,400.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 7.4%, the strongest of the four regions as battery precursor producers began positioning for the eventual restocking cycle.

Nickel Cathode Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices firmed from about USD 15,600.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 16,700.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 7.1%, as improving stainless mill utilization gradually absorbed what had been a persistent Indonesian-driven surplus.

How We Can Help

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Expert Market Research tracks Nickel Cathode prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining Indonesian ore policy developments, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory data, and stainless and battery precursor demand signals into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the genuinely wide uncertainty covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this critical battery and alloy metal is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.