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Palm Oil Pricing, Demand and Supply Overview

Palm Oil prices in India, the highest-cost reporting region given import duties and freight costs, rose 5.1% in Q2 2026 to USD 1,870.00/MT from USD 1,780.00/MT in Q1, as tightening supply expectations began building ahead of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate. Globally, the average rose from USD 1,264.65/MT in Q1 to USD 1,334.00/MT in Q2, a 5.5% gain, reversing a soft start to the year. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 1,300.00-1,500.00/MT is expected, with elevated crude oil prices, Indonesia's mandatory B50 biodiesel blending from July, and the risk of El Nino-driven production disruptions all pointing toward continued firming.

Palm Oil is extracted from the fruit of oil palm trees, with Indonesia and Malaysia together dominating global supply and accounting for the large majority of world production and exports. Crude palm oil is refined into RBD palm oil and further fractionated into palm olein and palm stearin for use in cooking oil, packaged foods, cosmetics, and, increasingly, biodiesel. Indonesia's biodiesel mandate, Malaysia's export levy structure, and weather patterns driven by El Nino and La Nina cycles are among the most closely monitored variables in this market, alongside the competitive dynamic with substitute edible oils such as soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oil. Production output in Indonesia and Malaysia, biodiesel policy mandates, competing vegetable oil prices, and weather conditions are what drive prices in this market.

Palm Oil Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Palm Oil through H2 2026 points to renewed firming after a soft start to the year, with prices potentially reaching USD 1,500.00/MT in the back half of the year according to industry analysts. Indonesia's planned mandatory B50 biodiesel blending from July 1 is expected to boost domestic consumption of palm oil feedstock and potentially reduce export availability from the world's largest producer, while the possible emergence of El Nino weather conditions later in the year adds further upside risk to production in key growing regions.

The main upside risk is a combination of the B50 mandate reducing export availability and El Nino weather disruptions curbing production simultaneously, which could push prices toward or beyond the USD 1,500.00/MT level analysts have flagged. The main downside risk is a smoother-than-expected seasonal production peak in Indonesia and Malaysia combined with continued competitive pressure from soybean and rapeseed oil, which would cap the pace of any recovery.

Region 2026 Price Range (USD/MT) Outlook
Global Average 1,300.00 - 1,500.00 Biodiesel mandate and weather risk point toward firming
India 1,800.00 - 1,980.00 Import duties and freight sustain the highest regional cost
China 1,220.00 - 1,380.00 Steady import demand tracks the broader Asian market
Malaysia 1,170.00 - 1,320.00 Export levy structure and currency strength shape pricing
Indonesia 1,100.00 - 1,260.00 B50 mandate implementation reduces export availability

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Palm Oil Prices Q2 2026:

  • India: USD 1,870.00/MT
  • China: USD 1,250.00/MT
  • Malaysia: USD 1,210.00/MT
  • Indonesia: USD 1,150.00/MT

Palm Oil Prices in India

Indian Palm Oil prices averaged USD 1,870.00/MT in Q2 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 5.1% from USD 1,780.00/MT in Q1, as refiners adjusted procurement strategies ahead of anticipated supply tightening.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in India?

Changes in palm oil production output in Malaysia and Indonesia directly impacted availability and cost for Indian buyers, while currency exchange rate movements and anticipated tightening ahead of Indonesia's B50 mandate rollout supported firmer import pricing.

Palm Oil Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 1,250.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 5.8% from USD 1,182.00/MT in Q1, tracking the broader Asian market's reversal from earlier softness.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in China?

Improving demand sentiment and cautious restocking ahead of anticipated supply tightening supported a firmer tone, reversing the progressive weakness seen through the prior quarter.

Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia

Malaysian prices averaged USD 1,210.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 5.5% from USD 1,147.00/MT in Q1, as increased exports and accelerated shipments ahead of a scheduled export levy increase supported firmer pricing.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in Malaysia?

Increased Malaysian exports in the quarter, alongside accelerated Indonesian shipments ahead of a scheduled export levy increase, supported market sentiment even as the strength of the Malaysian currency at a multi-year high against the US dollar tempered some export appeal.

Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia

Indonesian prices, the lowest of the four regions as the primary producer benchmark, averaged USD 1,150.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 5.7% from USD 1,088.00/MT in Q1.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in Indonesia?

Anticipation of the mandatory B50 biodiesel blending policy taking effect from July 1 began building into pricing, as the policy is expected to boost domestic consumption of palm oil feedstock and potentially reduce export availability from the world's largest producer.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Palm Oil Prices Q1 2026:

  • India: USD 1,780.00/MT
  • China: USD 1,182.00/MT
  • Malaysia: USD 1,147.00/MT
  • Indonesia: USD 1,088.00/MT

Palm Oil Prices in India

Indian prices eased 1.1% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,780.00/MT from USD 1,800.00/MT in Q4 2025, with persistent weakness through the period as refiners adjusted procurement strategies in response to changing price spreads.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in India?

Indian markets followed a downward trajectory as refiners adjusted procurement strategies in response to changing price spreads between palm oil and competing vegetable oils, extending the seasonal weakness carried over from late 2025.

Palm Oil Prices in China

Chinese prices eased 2.3% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,182.00/MT from USD 1,210.00/MT in Q4 2025, as abundant supply from Malaysian and Indonesian origins pressured regional pricing.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in China?

Chinese markets displayed initial strength during the opening phase of the period before entering sustained decline as abundant supply from Malaysian and Indonesian origins pressured regional pricing, with only a modest late-quarter recovery from the period's lowest levels.

Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia

Malaysian prices eased 2.0% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,147.00/MT from USD 1,170.00/MT in Q4 2025, driven by ample supply and moderated export demand.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in Malaysia?

The market experienced a downward trend driven by ample supply and moderated export demand, as favorable harvesting conditions supported strong production and ensured consistent availability of raw material even as export activity did not provide sufficient support to absorb it.

Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia

Indonesian prices eased 2.9% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,088.00/MT from USD 1,120.00/MT in Q4 2025, tracking the broader regional softness.

Why did the price of Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in Indonesia?

Seasonal production increases from Southeast Asian sources created oversupply conditions relative to immediate consumption requirements, extending the correction that had been building since the prior quarter.

Quarterly Palm Oil Price Trends

Global Palm Oil prices showed significant volatility across the period covered in this report, with a sharp decline giving way to a partial recovery, a broadly flat patch, and then renewed softness through the end of 2025 and into early 2026, before firming again in Q2 as B50 mandate and weather-related supply concerns began building.

Quarter Price (USD/MT) QoQ Change Direction
Q2 2026 1,334.00 +5.5% ↑ Rising
Q1 2026 1,264.65 -2.0% ↓ Falling
Q4 2025 1,291.00 -2.7% ↓ Falling
Q3 2025 1,327.50 +9.0% ↑ Rising
Q2 2025 1,217.50 - — Stable
Q3 2026 In Progress - — In Progress

What was Palm Oil Price in 2025?

Palm Oil prices declined across every market covered in this report through 2025, reflecting a net contraction as supply expansion from Southeast Asia and competitive pressure from substitute vegetable oils outweighed demand growth, even as the year included a sharp Q2 decline followed by a Q3 recovery and a broadly flat Q4.

Palm Oil Prices in India in 2025

Indian prices declined from about USD 1,900.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,800.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 5.3%, the smallest annual decline of the four regions.

Palm Oil Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices declined from about USD 1,300.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,210.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 6.9%, tracking the broader regional oversupply.

Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia in 2025

Malaysian prices declined from about USD 1,260.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,170.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 7.1%, as favorable harvesting conditions kept supply consistently ample through the year.

Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia in 2025

Indonesian prices declined from about USD 1,200.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,120.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 6.7%, as production growth from the world's largest producer continued to outpace demand for most of the year.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Palm Oil Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Palm Oil prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining production and harvest data from Indonesia and Malaysia, biodiesel policy developments, and competing vegetable oil price signals into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the biodiesel mandate and weather-driven trends covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this essential edible oil is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.

*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.*

Key Questions Answered in the Report

Crude palm oil is refined into RBD palm oil and further fractionated into palm olein and palm stearin for use in cooking oil, packaged foods, cosmetics, and, increasingly, biodiesel.

The Q2 2026 global average was USD 1,334.00/MT, ranging from USD 1,150.00/MT in Indonesia to USD 1,870.00/MT in India.

The global average fell from USD 1,291.00/MT in Q4 2025 to USD 1,264.65/MT in Q1 2026, before rising to USD 1,334.00/MT in Q2 as B50 mandate and weather-related supply concerns began building.

Indonesia's planned mandatory B50 biodiesel blending from July 1 is expected to boost domestic consumption of palm oil feedstock and potentially reduce export availability, while the possible emergence of El Nino weather conditions adds further upside risk to production in key growing regions, with some analysts flagging a possible move toward USD 1,500.00/MT.

The global average is expected in the USD 1,300.00-1,500.00/MT range, with the B50 mandate and weather risk pointing toward continued firming.

Indonesia and Malaysia, as the dominant producers, hold the lowest costs, while India carries the highest cost among the regions tracked here given import duties and freight costs.

This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, connect with the Expert Market Research team.

Production output in Indonesia and Malaysia, biodiesel policy mandates, competing vegetable oil prices, and weather conditions driven by El Nino and La Nina cycles.

Indonesia and Malaysia together dominate global supply and account for the large majority of world production and exports.

Buyers can monitor Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policy developments and weather forecasts given their outsized influence on this market, time forward purchases around the quarterly breakdowns in this report, and benchmark supplier quotes against the tracked price ranges.

This is a collaborative report by Ketan Gandhi, Neha Gawande, Rakesh Nandi and Siddharth David reflecting perspectives and research-driven insights from Expert Market Research.

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