Paraffin Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Europe remained the priciest Paraffin market tracked, rising just above 3.6% in Q2 2026 to near USD 1,830.00/MT from about USD 1,767.00/MT in Q1, and it was crude-linked feedstock inflation together with war-risk insurance and routing costs that kept the market elevated. The global average climbed from close to USD 1,403.00/MT to near USD 1,432.50/MT, a gain of roughly 2.1%. Notably, this market's early 2026 story has been shaped as much by Strait of Hormuz-related shipping disruptions tightening supply from China as by any underlying demand shift, and the global average is likely to run in the USD 1,400 to 1,600/MT range through the second half of the year.

Paraffin, also known as paraffin wax or petroleum wax, is a white to colourless soft solid hydrocarbon compound composed primarily of long-chain saturated hydrocarbons, typically obtained during oil refining in the vacuum distillation process. It is used widely in candle making, food packaging, cosmetics and personal care formulations, and coatings, with fully refined, semi-refined, and slack wax grades varying by oil content and purity. Because this product is a direct petroleum refining byproduct, crude oil prices and refinery output decisions, geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping and trade flows, and downstream candle, cosmetics, and packaging demand cycles are what really move the price from quarter to quarter.

Paraffin Price Forecast for 2026

Crude oil price dynamics and refinery output decisions should continue supporting refinery costs globally through H2 2026, which points toward a cautiously stable market with a modest recovery bias. Growing candle and cosmetics sector demand, alongside expanding packaging applications as sustainability regulations favour wax-coated alternatives, should keep supporting the market regardless of shipping conditions.

A further escalation of shipping disruptions affecting major trade routes, or accelerating candle and cosmetics sector demand, could be what pushes prices above this forecast. A normalization of shipping conditions and Chinese export availability could be what eases the market back toward the lower end instead.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Paraffin Prices Q2 2026:

• Europe: USD 1,830.00/MT
• India: USD 1,410.00/MT
• United States: USD 1,340.00/MT
• China: USD 1,150.00/MT

Paraffin Prices in Europe

Europe stayed the priciest market by a wide margin, with the price moving from about USD 1,767.00/MT to near USD 1,830.00/MT, a gain of just above 3.6%. It was continued crude-linked feedstock inflation, together with war-risk insurance and routing costs, that carried the increase.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q2 2026 in Europe?

Crude-linked feedstock inflation, meeting war-risk insurance and routing costs that have continued increasing landed costs for European shipments, has kept downstream buyers cautious even as supply tightness persists, and it is this combination of elevated costs and careful restocking that has kept European pricing at the top of the range.

Paraffin Prices in India

The Indian price moved from about USD 1,360.00/MT to near USD 1,410.00/MT, a gain of just above 3.7%. It was continued strengthening demand recovery from cosmetics, packaging, and automotive sectors, together with easing supply constraints, that carried the increase.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q2 2026 in India?

Demand recovery from cosmetics, packaging, and automotive sectors has continued strengthening, and it is this broadening demand base, combined with production costs that have stayed elevated even as supply conditions ease, that has kept Indian pricing on a steady upward path.

Paraffin Prices in United States

The United States price moved from about USD 1,300.00/MT to near USD 1,340.00/MT, a gain of just above 3.1%. It was continued strong procurement demand from candle making, food packaging, and personal care industries, together with reduced refinery wax supply, that carried the increase.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Supply constraints have continued as refineries shift optimization toward lighter distillate products, reducing wax output as a byproduct, and it is this structural supply pressure, combined with strong procurement demand from candle making, food packaging, and personal care industries, that has kept United States pricing climbing.

Paraffin Prices in China

The Chinese price eased from about USD 1,185.00/MT to near USD 1,150.00/MT, a decline of just above 3.0%. It was continued subdued domestic demand, together with surplus inventories from prior production cycles, that gave the market room to ease even as export availability tightened due to Strait disruptions.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q2 2026 in China?

China's own domestic demand has stayed comparatively soft, limiting downstream candle, packaging, and rubber sector purchasing activity, and it is this domestic softness, even as Strait disruptions have tightened the volume available for export, that explains why Chinese pricing has eased this quarter even as import costs in other markets have risen.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Paraffin Prices Q1 2026:

• Europe: USD 1,767.00/MT
• India: USD 1,360.00/MT
• United States: USD 1,300.00/MT
• China: USD 1,185.00/MT

Paraffin Prices in Europe

The price reached close to USD 1,767.00/MT in Q1 2026, a decline of just above 2.4% from Q4 2025. It was winter-related port delays, together with crude-linked feedstock inflation, that shaped a volatile quarter for the market.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q1 2026 in Europe?

Winter-related port delays and icy operations restricted timely imports, tightening immediate available inventories, and crude-linked feedstock inflation plus war-risk insurance and routing increased landed costs for European shipments, and it was downstream restocking remaining cautious, with buyers resisting aggressive purchases, that amplified price sensitivity despite the underlying supply tightness.

Paraffin Prices in India

The price reached close to USD 1,360.00/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 0.7% from Q4 2025. It was strengthening demand recovery from cosmetics, packaging, and automotive sectors that pushed the market modestly higher.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q1 2026 in India?

Ex-Hazira domestic prices rose as strengthening demand recovery from cosmetics, packaging, and automotive sectors, meeting easing supply-side pressures, that drove the modest Indian increase, continuing a pattern of steady recovery that began building through the prior year.

Paraffin Prices in United States

The price reached close to USD 1,300.00/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 6.6% from Q4 2025. It was supply from China tightening due to Strait disruptions, together with surging crude oil costs, that drove the sharp increase.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Supply from China tightened due to Strait disruptions, raising landed costs and limiting arbitrage volumes, and crude oil surged, increasing production costs and prompting exporters to lift offers while reducing discounting, and it was freight and insurance premiums rising, elongating lead times and constraining immediate availability, that drove the sharp United States increase.

Paraffin Prices in China

The price reached close to USD 1,185.00/MT in Q1 2026, a rise of just above 0.9% from Q4 2025. It was tight export availability, tied to Strait disruptions, that pushed the market modestly higher despite continued subdued domestic demand.

Why did the price of Paraffin change in Q1 2026 in China?

Strait disruptions constrained export volumes and raised landed costs for overseas buyers this quarter, and it was this export-side tightness, meeting domestic demand that remained subdued amid weak global economic conditions, that produced the modest Chinese increase.

Quarterly Paraffin Price Trends

This market moved unevenly across the six quarters tracked here. Close to USD 1,326.25/MT in Q1 2025 rose to about USD 1,344.00/MT, before easing to near USD 1,315.00/MT, and climbing to close to USD 1,388.75/MT by Q4, continuing to about USD 1,403.00/MT in Q1 2026 and near USD 1,432.50/MT in Q2. That is a rise of roughly 8.0% across the full window, tracking crude-linked feedstock costs and shipping conditions closely.

What was Paraffin Price in 2025?

It was a mixed year across every market tracked, with a sharp German correction of roughly twenty-one percent in a single month during September offsetting steadier gains elsewhere, that defined an uneven 2025 for this market overall. The global average opened near USD 1,326.25/MT in Q1, dipped through the middle of the year, and climbed to close to USD 1,388.75/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 4.7% for the year.

Paraffin Prices in Europe in 2025

The European price climbed from about USD 1,650.00/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 1,810.00/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 9.7% for the year, though the path included a sharp correction of roughly twenty-one percent in a single month during September before a strong fourth-quarter recovery. It was firmer origin FOB offers from major exporting refineries, higher European energy costs for de-oiling operations, and steady demand from manufacturing and cosmetics formulation sectors that lifted prices toward year-end, holding the highest absolute cost among the four markets tracked throughout.

Paraffin Prices in India in 2025

The Indian price climbed from about USD 1,270.00/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 1,350.00/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 6.3% for the year. It was strengthening demand recovery from cosmetics, packaging, and automotive sectors, meeting supply-side pressures that gradually eased through the year, that drove the sustained climb through 2025.

Paraffin Prices in United States in 2025

The United States price climbed from about USD 1,210.00/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 1,220.00/MT by Q4, a rise of just above 0.8% for the year, essentially flat, before the sharper Strait disruption-driven increase that followed in early 2026. It was firm upstream crude oil and slack wax raw material prices, meeting reduced refinery wax supply from a shift in refinery optimization toward lighter distillate products, that kept United States pricing broadly stable through 2025.

Paraffin Prices in China in 2025

The Chinese price eased from about USD 1,175.00/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 1,142.00/MT by Q2, before recovering to close to USD 1,175.00/MT by Q4, essentially flat for the year overall, the smallest absolute cost among the four markets tracked throughout. It was subdued domestic demand, surplus inventories from prior production cycles, and weak global economic conditions limiting downstream candle, packaging, and rubber sector purchasing activity, that defined the largely range-bound path through 2025.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Paraffin Price Intelligence

The Paraffin market tracks crude oil economics and refinery output decisions closely, so Expert Market Research follows those alongside geopolitical developments affecting shipping and trade flows and downstream candle, cosmetics, and packaging demand cycles across the four markets covered here. This is combined with trade flow data to build the forecasts. Should the Paraffin pricing data or procurement strategy support be needed, the team is ready to help.