Petroleum Coke Price Trend Report and Forecast 2026-2027

Petroleum Coke Price Snapshot: January 2026

Prices across major pet coke markets in January 2026 are shown below, based on prevailing FOB and CIF assessments. India's landed cost of USD 501/MT sits at the top of the range, reflecting freight and insurance premiums on seaborne imports. China's FOB figure of USD 392/MT, by contrast, captures firm ex-works demand from aluminium smelters and calcination facilities that ramped procurement heading into the new year.

Petroleum Coke Price Index: Q4 2025 Regional Snapshot

Asia Pacific posted the sharpest upward movement in the Q4 2025 price index. North America ran counter to that trend, slipping modestly as domestic fuel-grade offtake softened. The table below sets out the regional price picture for the quarter.

Petroleum Coke Price Trend: Quarter-on-Quarter Change (Q3 vs Q4 2025)

With the exception of the US Gulf Coast, which eased 2.0% over the period, every major market tracked a price increase between Q3 and Q4 2025. South Korea recorded the widest gain at 2.2% on a CFR basis, while China and India both moved up in the 3 to 5% range on tighter domestic supply and active import procurement.

Global Petroleum Coke Market Overview

Global petroleum coke consumption reached a market value of USD 28.61 billion in 2025. Growth has been broad-based, with fuel-grade and calcined segments both contributing, though at different rates and for different reasons. The market is on a trajectory toward USD 48.21 billion by 2034, a CAGR of 5.97% through the forecast period.

Pet coke is a solid carbon material that comes off the bottom of the refining process. About 80% of what is produced globally is fuel-grade material, which carries high sulphur content and competes with coal and heavy fuel oil on a calorific value basis. The remaining share is calcined petroleum coke, a lower-sulphur, higher-purity product that the aluminium industry uses to manufacture anodes. Both grades have benefited from the fact that pet coke is cheaper per unit of energy than most of what it competes against.

Demand growth is anchored by three things: new aluminium smelter capacity in Asia, cement production expansion across emerging markets, and refinery throughput increases globally. Supply, on the other hand, moves with the quality of crude being processed and the capacity of coking units to handle it. When refiners run heavier, sourer crude, pet coke output goes up. When they shift toward lighter grades, it tightens.

Regional Petroleum Coke Price Analysis

North America

In Q4 2025, US Gulf Coast FOB petroleum coke prices settled at USD 390/MT by December, down 2.0% from the Q3 average. The directional move was not dramatic, but the logic behind it was clear enough. Power generation utilities pulled back on pet coke consumption over the quarter, and that demand gap was only partially offset by export enquiries from India and China. Refinery run rates held up, so supply was not an issue. With buyers able to cover requirements through normal procurement channels rather than aggressive spot buying, sellers had limited room to push prices.

Year-end dynamics added further softness. Trading desks thinned out heading into the holiday period, freight bookings became patchier, and some sellers offered discounts to clear tonnage rather than carry inventory into January. Lower natural gas costs also reduced the cost of calcination, which gave calciners a bit more pricing flexibility on the sell side. That said, Gulf Coast calciners ran at high utilization throughout the quarter, and export volumes to Asia remained steady, so the market did not tip into oversupply.

Q3 2025

The Q3 picture was notably tighter. US Gulf Coast prices averaged USD 398/MT in September, with the squeeze coming from the supply side rather than a demand surge. Refiners shifted toward lighter crude slates over the summer, which cut green coke generation and tightened availability of feedstock-grade material. Exporters from India and Brazil came in as active buyers, further reducing domestic surplus. Tariff uncertainty over parts of the quarter also disrupted some standard trade flows, adding procurement caution on the buy side. The FOB index fell 12.8% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in terms of benchmark pricing, but that reflected inventory builds in specific grades rather than a market-wide collapse.

Asia Pacific

In Q4 2025, China's domestic petroleum coke price moved to USD 347/MT in December, marking a 4.5% increase from Q3. Aluminium smelters and calcination units were consistent buyers through the quarter, and domestic refiners held back on spot selling, preferring to direct output through existing supply arrangements. That combination left the spot market short. Import requirements picked up to bridge the gap, and calcined grades pulled a meaningful premium over fuel-grade material throughout the period.

Q4 2025 - India

India's Q4 import price for petroleum coke came in at USD 172/MT in December, up 3.6% quarter-on-quarter. Cement plants and calcined coke producers were the main buyers, and both ran steadily through the quarter. What complicated the picture on the cost side was a combination of rupee weakness and regulatory preference for lower-sulphur grades, which pushed buyers toward more expensive origins. The January 2026 CIF figure of USD 501/MT looks jarring compared to the Q4 domestic price, but the gap is largely explained by freight, insurance, and the quality adjustments that apply to seaborne cargoes into Indian ports.

Q4 2025 - South Korea

South Korea was the standout market in Q4 2025. CFR Busan prices hit USD 562/MT in December, a 9.54% jump from the Q3 level, and the quarterly average came in at approximately USD 589.67/MT. Several things converged to push prices that high. A production outage at Ulsan removed a chunk of prompt domestic availability at exactly the wrong time. Separately, US sanctions had already been compressing the pool of seaborne fuel-grade cargoes, reducing the number of sellers willing to ship into the region. Battery material manufacturers also stepped up calcined coke procurement, competing for the same prompt tonnage that industrial fuel buyers were chasing. Inventory drawdowns in late Q3 left buyers with limited buffer, forcing them to accept firmer CIF offers through the quarter.

Europe

In Q4 2025, Germany's CFR Hamburg petroleum coke price averaged around USD 420/MT, remaining broadly stable with a marginal 0.4% increase from the prior quarter. The European market did not have the tightening factors that drove prices in Asia. Rhine water levels were navigable, which kept barge freight to inland industrial users in check. Port operations at Hamburg ran smoothly through the quarter, so importers did not face the kind of congestion-driven cost pressure that had affected the region in Q3. Aluminium anode producers and electrode manufacturers kept buying at a steady pace, and clinker burn from the cement sector held up even as construction activity softened in some markets.

Q3 had been a harder quarter for European buyers. Hamburg port congestion and rail disruptions had restricted material flow, contributing to a 3.55% price index increase quarter-over-quarter. Buyers had also been navigating procurement uncertainty tied to evolving trade policy, particularly around carbon-intensive materials, which kept purchasing strategies more conservative than usual. The comparative ease of Q4 logistics came as a welcome change.

Latin America

In Q4 2025, Brazil's CIF Santos petroleum coke price reached USD 426/MT in December, rising 3.1% over the quarter. The quarterly average for CFR Santos came in at around USD 588/MT. Brazil is almost entirely import-dependent for pet coke, so seaborne supply conditions set the tone. US arrivals picked up through Q4, and terminal inventories at Santos were reported at roughly five weeks of forward cover, which took pressure off spot procurement. That level of inventory comfort meant buyers were not chasing cargoes, which capped how far sellers could push prices despite firm underlying demand from cement producers and metallurgical operations.

Panama Canal delays added some friction on the freight side, pushing up voyage costs for US Gulf Coast cargoes bound for Santos. In practice, however, smooth port handling and adequate terminal stocks absorbed most of that cost before it reached the end buyer. The net effect was a moderate price increase rather than the sharper move that might have resulted had inventories been tighter.

Key Factors Influencing Petroleum Coke Prices

Pet coke pricing is shaped by a web of interconnected variables. Some are structural and move slowly. Others can shift prices materially within a single quarter. The factors below account for most of the price variance seen across markets in the current cycle.

• Crude Oil Quality and Refinery Throughput: Pet coke comes off heavy crude refining. When refiners run more light, sweet crude, green coke output falls and fuel-grade availability tightens. Conversely, heavier crude slates raise pet coke yields. Refinery run rates determine how much volume is available in total, while crude quality determines its grade distribution.
• Aluminium and Cement Sector Demand: These two industries account for the bulk of global pet coke consumption. Aluminium smelters require calcined pet coke for anode production, and cement kilns use fuel-grade material as a low-cost thermal input. Capacity expansions in both sectors, particularly across Asia, have set the floor under demand growth over the past several years.
• Freight and Logistics Costs: Pet coke moves in bulk vessels over long distances, so freight rates directly affect landed costs. Port congestion at key terminals like Santos, Hamburg, and Busan has repeatedly created short-term price spikes in those markets. Panama Canal restrictions add cost to Pacific-route cargoes from the US Gulf Coast.
• Regulatory Environment: High-sulphur pet coke faces increasing restrictions in India, China, and parts of Europe. Those regulations have pushed buyers toward lower-sulphur grades, which carry a premium and originate from a narrower set of refineries. The result is grade-level price divergence that does not always show up in headline index figures.
• Trade Policy and Tariffs: US sanctions on fuel-grade cargoes have reduced seaborne availability in certain trade lanes, particularly into Northeast Asia. Sino-US trade tensions and retaliatory tariff risks have periodically disrupted established buyer-seller relationships and pushed procurement toward alternative origins at higher cost.
• Currency Fluctuations: For importing markets like India and Brazil, local currency weakness translates directly into higher landed costs in domestic currency terms. Even when USD-denominated FOB prices are flat, a depreciating rupee or real can make pet coke materially more expensive for local buyers.

Petroleum Coke Price Forecast: Near-Term Outlook

North American prices are likely to stay range-bound through early 2026. FOB Gulf Coast levels have a floor from firm export demand out of India and South Korea, but domestic fuel-burn is not recovering meaningfully, which limits the upside. The main risks to that stable outlook would be a jump in refinery run rates that floods the market with additional supply, or an escalation of tariff tensions that redirects South American buying away from US origins.

Asia Pacific is where the more interesting price action will probably play out. Battery anode capacity is still expanding, aluminium sector procurement has not softened, and sanctions-related supply constraints are not going away quickly. India's CIF price is likely to hold in the USD 490 to 510 per MT range near term, with freight market swings the main variable. South Korea will stay exposed to prompt tightness given its import dependency and the ongoing effect of reduced seaborne cargo availability.

Europe looks steady. Any meaningful upside from current levels would require either active restocking by Turkish and Mediterranean buyers or a tightening in Black Sea supply. Neither is imminent. In Brazil, the CIF Santos price is expected to consolidate in the USD 430 to 460 per MT range, tracking cement sector demand and any shifts in US cargo availability or canal freight dynamics.

Recent Industry Developments

• ExxonMobil started first oil at the Bacalhau deepwater field in Brazil in October 2025. While the field's primary contribution is crude production, its development reinforces US major upstream integration in a country that imports virtually all of its pet coke, and could over time influence how domestic refinery economics develop.
• US Gulf Coast calciners ran at high utilization throughout Q4 2025. That kept export volumes to Asia healthy and prevented any significant domestic spot surplus from accumulating, even as local fuel-burn softened.
• Rising Middle East tensions in early 2026 pushed US petroleum coke prices up 3.1% in late February. The move was driven by energy market uncertainty and tighter freight capacity rather than any direct disruption to pet coke supply routes.
• Refinery outages and logistics problems in the US during early February 2026 added a further 1.4% to petcoke offer prices, a reminder that upstream disruptions pass through to this market quickly when supply is already running lean.