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The triethanolamine price forecast reflects a mixed trend influenced by the shifts in feedstock prices and varying demand across industries. The second quarter might witness weak downstream demand in China while the cost support from the ethylene oxide sector is also expected to be insufficient. The negative trend is anticipated to continue in the third quarter as well with production cost registering a consistent decline. The ease in the supply chain functioning of raw materials coupled with bleak demand for the commodity is likely to keep the prices on the lower end of the spectrum.
During the first month of the year 2024, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs in China issued a notice, optimizing the import and export regulations for low concentration triethanolamine mixtures. However, other mixtures containing triethanolamine will still be subjected to existing control measures, requiring import and export permits. This might ease the export chains and might support the export profits extracted from the commodity.
In 2024, the herbicide market is expected to showcase significant changes due to the EPA's anticipated release of an Herbicide Strategy aimed at reducing pesticide transport risks. This strategy includes a complex point system requiring farmers to implement various mitigation measures to use herbicides, potentially increasing compliance costs and operational burdens. The draft strategy has faced substantial criticism from agricultural groups for its complexity, perceived economic impact, and potential to reduce herbicide options, leading to lower productivity and higher costs for consumers. As herbicides are critical in conservation tillage practices, which minimize erosion and runoff, any regulatory changes could directly impact the demand for related chemicals, like triethanolamine, used in herbicide formulations. The projected decline in herbicide options and increased regulatory costs may suppress triethanolamine demand initially. However, as the market adjusts to new regulations, the demand for triethanolamine could stabilize or increase, driven by heightened industrial activity and the need for compliant herbicide formulations.
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