Tungsten Ore Price Trend Report and Forecast 2026-2027

Introduction: Understanding the Tungsten Ore Market

Tungsten (chemical symbol W, atomic number 74) is among the hardest and densest metals on Earth, with the highest melting point of any element at 3,422°C. These unique physical properties make it irreplaceable in a range of critical industrial and defence applications. The tungsten ore price trend in FY25 was decisively bullish – the most dramatic rally in any critical mineral market – driven by China’s February 2025 export controls that weaponised the world’s most concentrated supply chain.

Tungsten’s demand is anchored across several high-value sectors:

• Cemented Carbides (Tungsten Carbide) – approximately 60% of global consumption, used in cutting tools, mining drill bits, and wear-resistant components
• Defence and Aerospace – armour-piercing ammunition, kinetic energy penetrators, rocket nozzles, and ballast weights
• Semiconductors – tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) is critical for chip manufacturing, forming electrical interconnects in advanced nodes
• Mining and Construction – drill bits and excavation tools requiring extreme hardness and heat resistance
• Energy and Emerging Applications – photovoltaic wire saws, EV battery contacts, and nuclear fusion materials

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025

Global Tungsten Ore Market Overview

The global tungsten ore market is dominated by China, which produces approximately 81% of global primary supply at around 67,000 tonnes of contained tungsten in 2024. Global demand, measured as tungsten concentrate, reached approximately 130,000 tonnes in 2025 – a 6% year-on-year increase – driven by defence spending, semiconductor expansion, and photovoltaic wire demand. The US has zero domestic tungsten mining and remains fully reliant on imports and recycling.

The defining event of FY25 was China’s February 4, 2025 export control announcement, implementing a “one-item, one-certificate” system for 25 rare metal products including ammonium paratungstate (APT). This was compounded by three consecutive annual reductions in China’s tungsten mining quota (each approximately 6%), with the first batch of the 2025 quota set at 58,000 tonnes – 4,000 tonnes below 2024. Chinese mine operating rates fell below 35% by August 2025, and spot inventory dropped to just 14–16 days of coverage, the lowest in nearly three years. Average Chinese ore grades have declined from 0.42% to 0.27% over the past two decades, structurally constraining output.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; U.S. Geological Survey; China Ministry of Commerce; Project Blue

Global Tungsten Ore Price Trend FY25

The tungsten ore price trend in FY25 was unambiguously bullish, with three of four tracked regions recording double-digit full-year gains. Chinese domestic concentrate prices rose approximately 89.5% by September 2025, while European APT surged over 40% in the first half alone. The structural drivers included:

China Export Controls (February 2025): The “one-item, one-certificate” system for 25 tungsten products sharply reduced Chinese export volumes, creating a supply vacuum in international markets.
Mining Quota Cuts: China’s 2025 first-batch quota of 58,000 tonnes was 6.45% below 2024, the third consecutive annual reduction.

Defence Demand Surge: Global military spending escalation (SIPRI) drove demand for armour-piercing ammunition, kinetic penetrators, and rocket components.
Semiconductor Pull: WF₆ demand for chip manufacturing became a key price driver, with producers willing to pay premium tungsten ore prices as feedstock costs represent a small share of total chipmaking expenses.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; Fastmarkets; SIPRI; Project Blue

Northeast Asia: Regional Price Analysis FY25

Northeast Asia recorded the most dramatic tungsten ore price surge globally, rising from USD 21.298/KG in Q1 to USD 31.362/KG by Q4 – a 47.2% full-year gain. The rally accelerated through H2, with Q3 at +17.4% and Q4 at +21.2%, driven by China’s export controls and the resulting supply vacuum. Chinese domestic 65% wolframite concentrate prices approached USD 26,000/tonne by August and exceeded USD 32,000/tonne by September 1 – an 88% year-to-date increase. China’s tungsten imports also surged, reaching 9,402 tonnes (gross) between January and July 2025, up 73% year-on-year, with material sourced primarily from Myanmar, North Korea, Mongolia, and newly emergent Kazakhstan. South Korea’s Sangdong mine commenced processing operations in 2025, producing approximately 2,300–2,500 tonnes of WO₃, but this represented only 4–5% of global demand, insufficient to offset Chinese supply contraction.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Project Blue; Fastmarkets

South America: Regional Price Analysis FY25

South America’s tungsten ore price rose from USD 21.658/KG in Q1 to USD 28.204/KG by Q4 – a 30.2% full-year gain. After a flat Q2, the rally ignited in Q3 (+14.0%) and accelerated in Q4 (+14.5%) as Chinese export restrictions redirected global trade flows. Brazil’s tungsten mining operations benefited from increased buyer interest as procurement teams sought non-Chinese alternatives. The region’s position as a secondary source gained strategic importance amid the broader supply chain diversification effort.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy

North America: Regional Price Analysis FY25

North American tungsten ore prices rose from USD 19.376/KG in Q1 to USD 22.273/KG by Q4 – a 14.9% full-year gain, the mildest among the three bullish regions. The Q3 surge of +9.5% coincided with Pentagon stockpiling announcements and Defense Production Act funding for the Mactung mine in Canada’s Yukon Territory (USD 15.8 million contract to Fireweed Metals, December 2024). The US exempted tungsten products from tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese imports, acknowledging the critical nature of supply dependence. The July 2025 “Big and Beautiful” Act allocated USD 500 million in credit and up to USD 100 billion in loan funds for critical mineral production. However, Mactung is not expected to produce until 2027 or later, leaving the US fully reliant on imports and recycling for the foreseeable future.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; U.S. Department of Defense; U.S. Geological Survey

Europe: Regional Price Analysis FY25

Europe was the sole declining region, with the tungsten ore price falling from USD 14.383/KG in Q1 to USD 13.370/KG by Q4 – a 7.0% full-year drop. A Q2 spike of +8.1% reflected initial panic buying as China’s export controls took effect, but this reversed sharply in Q3 (−12.6%) and continued declining in Q4 (−1.6%). European APT prices had surged 40%+ by mid-year, but downstream destocking and demand destruction from extreme cost pass-through caused a correction. The EU-China APT export premium widened from 1.2% in 2024 to 3.2% in January–August 2025, reflecting tighter availability. Portugal’s Panasqueira mine and partnerships with allied producers in Australia represent European efforts to build alternative supply chains, though these remain insufficient to replace Chinese volumes.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Fastmarkets; European Commission

Tungsten Ore Forecast: FY26 Market Outlook

The tungsten ore forecast for FY26 indicates continued elevated pricing with a consolidation bias, as the structural supply deficit persists but speculative excess moderates:

• Export Controls Persist: China’s tungsten export restrictions are expected to remain through 2026; the January 2026 Dual-Use Items Catalogue further tightened controls.
• New Supply Insufficient: Sangdong (South Korea), Bakuta (Kazakhstan), and Panasqueira (Portugal) collectively add only 5–7% of global demand; Mactung (Canada) remains 2027+.
• Defence Demand Structural: Global military spending escalation and US strategic stockpiling under the Defense Production Act provide a demand floor.
• Semiconductor Growth: WF₆ demand for advanced chip manufacturing continues expanding, with feedstock cost insensitivity sustaining premium pricing.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; Goldman Sachs; U.S. Geological Survey

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Manufacturers

For Procurement and Sourcing Professionals

• Secure long-term offtake agreements: Chinese export uncertainty will persist; lock in multi-year contracts with non-Chinese producers at current tungsten ore prices before further tightening.
• Diversify beyond China: South Korea (Sangdong), Kazakhstan (Bakuta), Portugal (Panasqueira), and Australia offer emerging alternative supply.
• Invest in recycling infrastructure: Tungsten recycling from cutting tools and drill bits can offset 25–30% of primary demand; the US already recovers significant volumes through secondary processing.
• Monitor APT-concentrate spread: APT prices exceeding USD 1,100/mtu in Europe signal extreme tightness; use forward contracts to hedge tungsten ore cost exposure effectively.

For Manufacturers and Producers

• Accelerate mine development: The 3–5 year lag before non-Chinese supply enters the market at scale creates a pricing window for first-movers in project development.
• Target high-value derivatives: Tungsten carbide, WF₆, and defence-grade alloys command significant premiums over raw concentrate.
• Leverage government incentives: The US Big and Beautiful Act’s USD 100 billion loan facility and Defense Production Act funding offer direct support for critical mineral projects.
• Build strategic inventory: With Chinese spot inventory at 14–16 days and declining, holding physical tungsten at current levels offers asymmetric upside.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; Goldman Sachs; U.S. Geological Survey

Analyst Insights

The tungsten ore price trend in FY25 represents the most significant supply-side disruption in any critical mineral market since China’s rare earth export restrictions in 2010. China’s February 2025 export controls, combined with three consecutive years of mining quota reductions and declining ore grades (0.42% to 0.27%), have created a structural deficit that cannot be resolved within a 12–24 month timeframe. Northeast Asia’s 47.2% surge and South America’s 30.2% gain reflect genuine physical shortage, not speculation alone.

FY26 will test whether consolidation or further escalation prevails. New mines in South Korea, Kazakhstan, and Portugal collectively replace only 5–7% of Chinese supply, while Mactung (Canada) remains years from production. The tungsten ore market is entering a multi-year structural deficit that favours producers, long-term contract holders, and nations with domestic reserves.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Goldman Sachs; Procurement Resource; Project Blue

Sources and References

1. Expert Market Research, Tungsten Ore Price Trends and Forecast 2025
2. Expert Market Research, Global Tungsten Market Report 2025
3. Procurement Resource, Tungsten Price Index and Historical Data
4. Goldman Sachs Commodity Research
5. U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (Tungsten)
6. China Ministry of Commerce, Export Control Announcement (February 4, 2025)
7. Fastmarkets, Chinese Tungsten Product Prices Surge (January 2026)
8. Project Blue, What’s Behind the Surge in Tungsten Prices (2025)
9. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Spending 2025
10. U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Production Act Tungsten Contract (December 2024)
11. U.S. Congress, Big and Beautiful Act (July 2025, USD 500M/100B Critical Minerals)
12. Almonty Industries / Sangdong Mine, South Korea (2,300–2,500 Tonnes WO₃, 2025)
13. Jiaxin International, Bakuta Tungsten Mine, Kazakhstan (April 2025)
14. European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act
15. Trading Economics, Commodity Data, February 2026