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Aluminum Alloy Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
The United States production costs took a direct hit from the Section 232 tariff costs and a widening Midwest premium, which might have been the reason the region stayed the priciest market even as the broader London benchmark cooled from its May peak. The market rose just above 3.4% to near USD 3,640/MT in Q2 2026, up from about USD 3,520/MT in Q1. Globally, the average rose to close to USD 3,260/MT in Q2, up roughly 5.8% from near USD 3,080/MT in Q1. For H2 2026, the global average is expected in a range close to USD 3,100-3,450/MT, with continued support from the scrap tightness, China's export policy stance, and steady automotive die-casting demand.
Aluminum alloy ingot comes from melting and re-alloying the aluminum scrap with primary aluminum and alloying elements including silicon, copper, and magnesium in reverberatory or induction furnaces. ADC12, with roughly 10-12% silicon and 1.5-3.5% copper, is the dominant die-casting grade globally, while the European LM-series and North American A380-equivalent grades serve comparable regional markets. The automotive sector buys the most of it, by a wide margin, consuming alloy ingot in powertrain housings, structural castings, and EV battery enclosures, with the beverage can sheet and construction extrusions forming secondary demand. The scrap availability is the primary price lever here: the tighter feedstock forces higher primary aluminum additions, which lifts costs through the London benchmark reference. The primary aluminum benchmark prices, the scrap spreads, the energy costs at secondary smelters, and the trade policy all feed into the price.
Aluminum Alloy Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of the supply and the demand for aluminum alloy through H2 2026 leans firm but two-sided. The London aluminum benchmark took a direct hit from a regional shipping-route disruption that pushed it to a multi-year peak in late Q2, which might have been the reason the market has since corrected from that peak even as the scrap tightness and steady automotive demand keep alloy ingot well above year-ago levels. China's stance on its aluminum export rebate remains a key swing factor for global supply.
The main upside risk is a further shipping-route disruption or a China export rebate cancellation that tightens global primary supply. On the downside, a broader correction in the London benchmark or a China export rebate reinstatement would ease costs below the forecast range.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/MT) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 3,100 - 3,450 | Scrap tightness and steady automotive demand keep prices firm |
| China | 2,700 - 2,950 | Large domestic capacity and scrap supply keep China most affordable |
| United States | 3,550 - 3,850 | Section 232 tariffs and a wide Midwest premium maintain steep premium |
| Germany | 3,150 - 3,400 | Carbon border adjustment costs and energy prices maintain premium |
| Japan | 3,000 - 3,250 | Import dependency and automotive die-casting demand support firm pricing |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Aluminum Alloy Prices Q2 2026:
- China: USD 2,780/MT
- United States: USD 3,640/MT
- Germany: USD 3,260/MT
- Japan: USD 3,090/MT
Aluminum Alloy Prices in China
The Chinese prices took a direct hit from the London benchmark's climb through the quarter, which might have been the reason the domestic alloy prices moved higher. The ample scrap supply and large primary capacity kept the market most affordable at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 4.9% to close to USD 2,780/MT in Q2 2026, up from roughly USD 2,650/MT in Q1.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q2 2026 in China?
The London benchmark's climb through the quarter pulled domestic prices higher, and the ample scrap supply held back the pace of gains at the same time. The large primary capacity kept the market most affordable near USD 2,780/MT.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in United States
The United States prices took a direct hit from the Section 232 tariff costs and a widening Midwest premium, which might have been the reason the market stayed the costliest among tracked regions. The underlying London benchmark eased from its late-quarter peak at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 3.4% to near USD 3,640/MT in Q2 2026, up from about USD 3,520/MT in Q1.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q2 2026 in United States?
The Section 232 tariff costs kept the domestic premium wide, and the Midwest premium widened further at the same time. The London benchmark's correction limited additional upside near USD 3,640/MT.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Germany
The German prices took a direct hit from the carbon border adjustment costs and high energy prices at domestic secondary smelters, which might have been the reason the offers stayed firm. The recovering automotive production lifted at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 4.5% to near USD 3,260/MT in Q2 2026, up from about USD 3,120/MT in Q1.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
The carbon border adjustment costs added to landed feedstock and energy prices, and the domestic secondary smelters faced continued high energy costs at the same time. The recovering automotive production pushed offers to USD 3,260/MT.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Japan
The Japanese prices took a direct hit from the import-dependent primary costs, which might have been the reason the market moved higher this quarter. The steady automotive die-casting demand from domestic and regional manufacturers lifted at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 3.7% to close to USD 3,090/MT in Q2 2026, up from roughly USD 2,980/MT in Q1.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q2 2026 in Japan?
The import-dependent primary costs tracked the London benchmark higher, and the automotive die-casting demand stayed steady at the same time. Offers firmed to USD 3,090/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Aluminum Alloy Prices Q1 2026:
- China: USD 2,650/MT
- United States: USD 3,520/MT
- Germany: USD 3,120/MT
- Japan: USD 2,980/MT
Aluminum Alloy Prices in China
The Chinese prices took a direct hit from a regional shipping-route disruption that pushed crude oil and the London aluminum benchmark sharply higher, which might have been the reason the domestic alloy producers passed the increase through quickly. The thin conversion margins added to the pressure at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 9.5% to close to USD 2,650/MT in Q1 2026, up from roughly USD 2,420/MT in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q1 2026 in China?
The regional shipping-route disruption pushed crude oil and the London benchmark sharply higher, and the domestic producers passed the increase through quickly at the same time. The market jumped to USD 2,650/MT within the quarter.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in United States
The United States prices took a direct hit from the London benchmark surge combined with a widening Section 232 tariff-driven Midwest premium, which might have been the reason the market jumped. The recovering automotive and primary-metals manufacturing activity added at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 10.7% to near USD 3,520/MT in Q1 2026, up from about USD 3,180/MT in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q1 2026 in United States?
The London benchmark surge combined with a widening Midwest premium, and the recovering automotive manufacturing activity added demand support at the same time. The market jumped to USD 3,520/MT.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Germany
The German prices took a direct hit from the regional shipping disruption that lifted the London benchmark and energy costs together, which might have been the reason the market climbed. The carbon border adjustment costs entering full payment phase added at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 10.2% to close to USD 3,120/MT in Q1 2026, up from roughly USD 2,830/MT in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
The regional shipping disruption lifted the London benchmark and energy costs together, and the carbon border adjustment costs entered full payment phase at the same time. The combination pushed the market to USD 3,120/MT.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Japan
The Japanese prices took a direct hit from the import-dependent primary aluminum costs tracking the London benchmark surge closely, which might have been the reason the market jumped nearly 10% in a single quarter. The automotive die-casting order intake stayed firm at almost the same moment, and the market rose to close to USD 2,980/MT in Q1 2026, up from roughly USD 2,720/MT in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Aluminum Alloy change in Q1 2026 in Japan?
The import-dependent primary costs tracked the London benchmark surge closely, and the automotive die-casting order intake stayed firm at the same time. The market moved to USD 2,980/MT.
Quarterly Aluminum Alloy Price Trends
The six-quarter arc for aluminum alloy has been a steady climb, then a spike, then a partial cool-down. The tightening scrap supply and firming primary aluminum benchmarks lifted prices through 2025, and a regional shipping-route disruption pushed crude oil and the London benchmark to a multi-year peak at almost the same moment in Q1 2026, before the pace of gains moderated in Q2. The average rose from USD 2,580/MT in Q2 2025 to USD 3,260/MT by Q2 2026, a gain just above 26.4% over the window.
| Quarter | Price | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 3,260 | +5.8% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 3,080 | +10.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 2,790 | +4.5% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 2,670 | +3.5% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 2,580 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Aluminum Alloy Price in 2025?
The aluminum alloy prices firmed steadily through 2025. The scrap supply tightened, and the primary aluminum benchmark climbed on strong global demand at almost the same time. The global average opened near USD 2,510/MT in Q1 2025 and rose to about USD 2,790/MT by Q4, a gain just above 11.2%.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in China in 2025
The Chinese prices took a direct hit from the firming primary aluminum benchmarks, which might have been the reason the market climbed steadily through 2025. The steady scrap costs added at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 11.0% from roughly USD 2,180/MT in Q1 to about USD 2,420/MT by Q4, even as speculation over a possible export rebate cancellation added uncertainty late in the year.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in United States in 2025
The United States prices took a direct hit from the Section 232 tariff costs, which might have been the reason the market firmed through the year. The firming Midwest premium lifted at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 11.6% from about USD 2,850/MT in Q1 to USD 3,180/MT by Q4, with the recovering automotive and primary-metals manufacturing activity adding further support in the second half.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Germany in 2025
The German prices took a direct hit from the firming primary aluminum benchmarks and high energy costs at domestic secondary smelters, which might have been the reason the market rose through the year. The early positioning ahead of the full carbon border adjustment payment phase-in added at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 11.4% from about USD 2,540/MT in Q1 2025 to roughly USD 2,830/MT by Q4.
Aluminum Alloy Prices in Japan in 2025
The Japanese prices took a direct hit from the import-dependent primary aluminum costs, which might have been the reason the market firmed steadily. The steady automotive die-casting demand added at almost the same moment, and the market rose just above 10.6% from roughly USD 2,460/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,720/MT by Q4.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Aluminum Alloy Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks the aluminum alloy prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces the causation through the primary aluminum benchmark economics, the scrap availability and spreads, the energy costs at secondary smelters, and the trade policy developments including tariffs and export rebate changes. Contact Expert Market Research today for aluminum alloy pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
The automotive sector takes the largest share globally, consuming alloy ingot in powertrain housings, structural castings, and EV battery enclosures. The beverage can sheet and construction extrusions form the secondary demand base.
The Q2 2026 average was close to USD 2,780/MT in China, about USD 3,640/MT in the United States, near USD 3,260/MT in Germany, and roughly USD 3,090/MT in Japan. The United States carries the highest cost on the Section 232 tariffs and a widening Midwest premium.
The global average rose from close to USD 3,080/MT in Q1 2026 to about USD 3,260/MT in Q2, a gain just above 5.8%, as a regional shipping-route disruption pushed the London aluminum benchmark to a multi-year peak before a partial correction.
The tightening scrap supply and firming primary aluminum benchmark lifted prices steadily through 2025, which might have been the reason the market stayed firm until a regional shipping-route disruption in early 2026 pushed the crude oil and the London benchmark to a multi-year peak.
The global average should land in a range close to USD 3,100 to 3,450/MT for H2 2026, with support from the scrap tightness, China's export policy stance, and steady automotive die-casting demand.
The United States holds the highest cost on the Section 232 tariffs and a widening Midwest premium. Germany carries a firm premium from carbon border adjustment costs, and China prices lowest on the large domestic scrap and primary capacity.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
The aluminum alloy prices are primarily driven by the primary aluminum benchmark movements and the scrap availability and spreads. The trade policy interventions such as tariffs and export rebates can further amplify short-term price swings.
China holds the largest production capacity on domestic primary aluminum and scrap supply, followed by the United States, Germany, and Japan. Any China export policy shift ripples across all the regional aluminum alloy markets.
The buyers can use the quarterly trends and forecasts to time purchases around the scrap cost cycles, and watch the London benchmark and regional premiums as primary cost signals.
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