Coking Coal Price Trend Report and Forecast 2026-2027

Introduction: Why Coking Coal Matters

Coking coal, also known as metallurgical coal, serves as the primary raw material for blast furnace steelmaking. The coking coal price trend is a key barometer for steelmaking economics, directly influencing production costs, steel margins, and supply chain competitiveness worldwide. Approximately 640 kilograms of coking coal is required to produce one tonne of steel, meaning the coking coal cost directly shapes steelmaking profitability.

Coking coal is indispensable in traditional steelmaking due to its high carbon content and low impurities, superior coking properties for metallurgical coke production, thermal stability above 2,000°C, and mechanical strength to support blast furnace burden materials. These properties ensure it remains irreplaceable in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) operations, which account for approximately 70% of global crude steel production.

Sources: Expert Market Research, Coking Coal Pricing Report 2025; Procurement Resource; World Steel Association

Key Sectors Driving Coking Coal Demand

Steel Production (BF-BOF Route): The iron and steel industry consumes over 90% of global coking coal. Global crude steel production reached 151.4 million tonnes in January 2025, according to the World Steel Association, with BF-BOF routes dominating output in China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Infrastructure and Construction: Steel demand from construction and urbanisation across Asia-Pacific, India’s National Infrastructure Pipeline, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative drive substantial coking coal consumption.

Automotive and Manufacturing: Traditional BF-BOF production continues to supply the majority of automotive-grade steel, sustaining coking coal market demand despite growing EAF adoption.

Sources: Expert Market Research; IEA Coal 2025; World Steel Association

Global Coking Coal Market Overview

Global metallurgical coal production stands at approximately 1.2 billion metric tonnes annually. Australia dominates seaborne exports with approximately 380 million metric tonnes shipped in 2023, accounting for over 60% of global export volumes. The coking coal market is heavily shaped by China and India. India’s metallurgical coal imports surged 32% year-on-year to 73.53 million tonnes in 2025, while JSW Steel targets 42 million tonnes capacity by 2027 and Tata Steel ramped its Kalinganagar Works to 26.6 million tonnes following its largest blast furnace commissioning in September 2024.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; Argus Media, January 2026; Fastmarkets, January 2025

Global Coking Coal Price Trend 2025

Global coking coal prices exhibited significant volatility throughout 2025. Australian Premium Hard Coking Coal (PLV HCC) FOB prices declined below USD 200 per tonne by end-2024 before recovering modestly. The coking coal price trend reflected a market navigating between cautious destocking and episodic supply tightness.

According to the IEA, the metallurgical coal market experienced moderate price declines during H1 2025. Although weather disruptions in Queensland constrained Australian export volumes, demand from Asian steelmakers was insufficient to sustain upward coking coal price momentum. Prices remained below USD 200 per tonne for much of the year.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; IEA Coal Mid-Year Update 2025; Argus Media

Europe: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

The coking coal cost for European steelmakers declined progressively as blast furnace utilisation fell amid slow construction activity and competitive imports. The structural shift toward EAF steelmaking added longer-term headwinds to regional coking coal demand.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Fastmarkets

Africa: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

African coking coal prices displayed the widest quarterly swings in 2025. Supply constraints from Mozambique’s Moatize basin drove Q2 gains, but the sharp 10% Q4 decline reflected weaker global demand, lower freight rates, and improved supply across competing corridors, compressing the coking coal cost for African producers.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource

Northeast Asia: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

Northeast Asia exhibited the most dramatic coking coal price volatility. The Q4 surge of 11% was driven by restocking activity, robust mill demand, and reduced spot supply. China’s DCE coking coal futures increasingly influenced seaborne benchmark pricing, with Chinese steelmakers accounting for approximately 45% of all Premium HCC spot transactions.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; Argus Media; Fastmarkets

India: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

The coking coal forecast for India remains positive given ongoing capacity expansion. Q4 saw a 5% rebound as blast furnace utilisation increased and higher import costs from Australia’s weather-disrupted supply pushed prices upward. India accounted for 29% of total Australian coal exports, with major expansions at JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and JSPL driving sustained import growth.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Argus Media, January 2026

North America: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

The coking coal cost for U.S. exports averaged USD 106.23 per short ton in Q3 2025, according to the U.S. EIA. Producers faced competitive pressure from Australian pricing in Asia, while potential Chinese import duties prompted diversification toward India and other markets.

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; U.S. EIA

Australia: Coking Coal Price Movements 2025

Australian coking coal prices were the most closely watched benchmark globally. Argus’s PLV HCC FOB price averaged approximately USD 202.60 per tonne in Q4 2024 before declining to USD 187.90 per tonne by late February 2025. Heavy rains in early 2026 pushed the monthly average to USD 227.38 per tonne FOB in January 2026, the highest since July 2024. The coking coal forecast from the Australian Treasury suggests longer-term moderation toward USD 140 per tonne FOB by end-2026.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Argus Media; IEA Coal 2025; Australian Treasury

Coking Coal Market Outlook: FY 2026

The coking coal forecast for 2026 reflects a market transitioning from oversupply toward cautious rebalancing:

• Europe: Q1 recovery (+2%) on restocking, followed by Q2 (-3%) and Q3 (-4%) declines. Stabilisation at lower levels by Q4.
• Africa: Brief Q1 recovery (+2%), then Q2 (-2%) and Q3 (-4%) declines on low export demand and increased competition.
• Northeast Asia: +3% Q1 on steady production, then -2% Q2 and -3% Q3 as supply constraints ease. Balanced conditions by Q4.
• India: Strong Q1 (+4%) on steady steel demand and restocking. Declines from Q2–Q3 as import availability improves.
• North America: +2% Q1 on restocking, followed by Q2 (-3%) and Q3 (-4%) on weak demand and excess inventories.
• Australia: Strongest outlook: Q1 (+5%), Q2 (+3%), Q3 (+2%) on constrained supply and firm Asian demand.

Benchmark Australian PLV HCC prices are expected to trade in the range of USD 140–240 per tonne through 2026, with direction dependent on steel production cycles, Chinese restocking, and Australian supply discipline.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; Australian Treasury; IEA Coal 2025

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Manufacturers

For Procurement Teams

• Q2–Q3 2026 softness creates favourable negotiating leverage for long-term contracts where coking coal cost is competitive.
• Monitor Queensland weather patterns closely. Cyclone season disruptions historically cause rapid 15–25% coking coal price spikes.
• India’s surging imports (up 32% YoY) are tightening Premium HCC grades. Secure supply early to avoid late-cycle premiums.

For Manufacturers

• Below-USD 200 benchmark pricing requires continued operational discipline and coking coal cost base optimisation.
• China’s DCE futures increasingly drive seaborne coking coal price direction. Monitor domestic Chinese signals as leading indicators.
• Long-term EAF adoption and hydrogen-based DRI represent structural headwinds for the coking coal market beyond 2030.

Analyst Insights

The coking coal price trend in 2025 reflected a market caught between cyclical softness and supply-side resilience. Key dynamics include persistent seaborne oversupply as Australian export capacity remained elevated, India’s emergence as the fastest-growing importer (32% YoY growth), growing influence of China’s DCE futures on global spot pricing, European weakness from accelerating EAF adoption, and weather-related Queensland supply disruptions providing intermittent but significant coking coal price support.

While near-term pricing will be dictated by steel production cycles and Australian supply conditions, the longer-term coking coal forecast reflects gradual transition toward lower-carbon steelmaking. Nevertheless, BF-BOF operations are expected to require significant coking coal market volumes for at least two more decades.

Sources: Procurement Resource; Expert Market Research; IEA Coal 2025; Fastmarkets; Argus Media

Coking Coal Specifications and Global Trade

Sources: Expert Market Research; Procurement Resource; IEA Coal 2025

Sources and References

1. Expert Market Research, Coking Coal Pricing Report 2025 Edition
2. Procurement Resource, Coking Coal Price Trend Report 2025
3. International Energy Agency (IEA), Coal 2025 and Coal Mid-Year Update 2025
4. World Steel Association, Global Crude Steel Production Data, January 2025
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report Q3 2025
6. Argus Media, Australian Premium Coking Coal Assessments, January 2026
7. Fastmarkets, Five Key Themes Shaping Coking Coal Market 2025
8. Australian Treasury, Commodity Price Forecasts, December 2025
9. Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), Coking Coal Futures Market Data
10. Tata Steel, Kalinganagar Works Expansion, September 2024
11. JSW Steel, Capacity Expansion Roadmap to 42 Million Tonnes
12. Trading Economics, Coking Coal Price Data, February 2026
13. Interocean Shipbroker Data, India Met Coal Import Volumes 2025
14. CME Group, SGX TSI FOB Australia Premium Coking Coal Futures
15. CSX Corporation, Q4 2024 Coal Volume Report