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Diesel Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
2025
Base Year
2023-2025
Historical Period
2026-2027
Forecast Period
Market Overview
Diesel prices in Germany, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 6.0% in H1 2026, climbing from USD 1.378/KG in Q1 to USD 1.461/KG by Q2 as firmer crude oil refinery feedstock costs and recovering commercial transport, construction machinery, and agricultural equipment fuel procurement reversed the brief Q1 2026 pricing correction. Globally, the average rose from USD 1.070/KG in Q1 to USD 1.134/KG in Q2, a 6.0% gain. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 1.14-1.27/KG is expected, with continued firming on Middle East supply disruptions and growing commercial transport and industrial diesel demand globally.
Diesel fuel is produced from crude oil atmospheric distillation as the straight-run gas oil fraction boiling between approximately 180 and 370 degrees Celsius, upgraded through catalytic hydrodesulphurisation and hydrocracking to meet ultra-low sulphur specifications below 15 parts per million in North America and 10 parts per million in the European Union. Crude oil feedstock cost constitutes 70 to 80 percent of total diesel production cost, with refinery margin and distribution logistics accounting for the remainder. The largest pull comes from commercial road transport of goods and passengers, where compression ignition engines provide superior fuel economy and torque for heavy goods vehicles, buses, and light commercial vehicles. Construction equipment, agricultural tractors and harvesting combines, rail traction, marine propulsion, off-grid power generation, and mining equipment add further significant demand. Heating oil use in residential and commercial buildings in colder climate markets adds seasonal volumes. Crude oil price, refinery crack spread, regional fuel taxation and carbon pricing policy, OPEC and non-OPEC production decisions, and freight transportation sector activity all feed into the price.
Diesel Price Forecast for 2026
The balance of supply and demand for Diesel through H2 2026 leans moderately firm. Crude oil prices are firming from Middle East production policy and geopolitical disruptions. Commercial transport, construction, and agricultural equipment demand is growing with recovering freight volumes and infrastructure investment globally.
The main upside risk is crude oil price spikes from Middle East escalation alongside accelerating freight volume growth. The main downside risk is crude oil production increase from non-OPEC producers and electric vehicle freight adoption lowering diesel demand below the forecast range.
| Region | Price Forecast (USD/KG) | Key Driver |
| Global Average | 1.14 - 1.27 | Crude oil cost firming and commercial transport/construction demand |
| United States | 0.972 - 1.082 | Steady commercial transport and agricultural demand holds firm |
| China | 0.912 - 1.022 | Domestic refinery capacity keeps it the most affordable |
| Germany | 1.398 - 1.508 | High crude import and energy costs keep it the most expensive |
| India | 1.013 - 1.123 | Growing commercial transport and industrial demand holds a firm middle |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Diesel Prices Q2 2026:
- United States: USD 1.016/KG
- China: USD 0.948/KG
- Germany: USD 1.461/KG
- India: USD 1.054/KG
Diesel Prices in the United States
US Diesel prices averaged USD 1.016/KG in Q2 2026, up 6.1% from USD 0.958/KG in Q1 2026. Firmer crude oil costs and recovering commercial transport, construction, and agricultural equipment procurement drove consistent buying through the quarter.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q2 2026 in the United States?
Firmer crude oil and refinery feedstock costs raised the fuel production floor. Commercial road freight, construction equipment, and agricultural machinery fuel procurement lifted buying. Marine and power generation diesel demand provided additional support near USD 1.016/KG.
Diesel Prices in China
Chinese Diesel prices averaged USD 0.948/KG in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 0.894/KG in Q1 2026, the lowest among the tracked markets. Spring commercial transport and construction equipment procurement lifted buying. Firmer domestic crude and refinery costs raised the fuel production floor.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q2 2026 in China?
Spring commercial transport, construction, and agricultural equipment fuel procurement lifted buying. Firmer domestic crude oil and refinery costs raised the production floor. Domestic refinery capacity kept China the most affordable market.
Diesel Prices in Germany
German Diesel prices averaged USD 1.461/KG in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 1.378/KG in Q1 2026, the highest among the tracked markets. Higher crude oil import, refinery, and energy costs elevated European fuel production economics. Recovering commercial transport and construction demand maintained buying.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
Higher crude oil import and refinery feedstock costs elevated European fuel production economics. Middle East supply disruptions added cost premiums to crude oil supply chains. Recovering commercial road transport, construction, and agricultural procurement maintained buying near USD 1.461/KG.
Diesel Prices in India
Indian Diesel prices averaged USD 1.054/KG in Q2 2026, up 6.0% from USD 0.994/KG in Q1 2026. Growing commercial transport, construction equipment, and agricultural machinery demand supported buying. Firmer crude oil import costs raised the production floor.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q2 2026 in India?
Growing commercial road freight and construction equipment fuel procurement lifted buying. Firmer crude oil import costs raised the production floor. Agricultural machinery and power generation demand provided additional support near USD 1.054/KG.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Diesel Prices Q1 2026:
- United States: USD 0.958/KG
- China: USD 0.894/KG
- Germany: USD 1.378/KG
- India: USD 0.994/KG
Diesel Prices in the United States
US Diesel prices averaged USD 0.958/KG in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Post-winter commercial transport and construction demand moderation and soft crude oil costs eased the market before the Q2 spring recovery.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q1 2026 in the United States?
Post-winter commercial transport and construction equipment procurement moderation reduced buying urgency. Soft crude oil and refinery feedstock costs eased the production floor. The market eased to USD 0.958/KG before the Q2 spring transport surge.
Diesel Prices in China
Chinese prices averaged USD 0.894/KG in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Post-Lunar New Year transport and construction moderation and soft crude costs held the market near USD 0.894/KG.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q1 2026 in China?
Post-Lunar New Year commercial transport and construction moderation reduced urgency. Soft domestic crude oil and refinery costs eased the production floor. The market eased to USD 0.894/KG before the Q2 spring freight recovery.
Diesel Prices in Germany
German prices averaged USD 1.378/KG in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Post-winter commercial transport and construction moderation and soft crude oil costs eased the European market near USD 1.378/KG.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q1 2026 in Germany?
Post-winter commercial transport, construction, and agricultural moderation reduced urgency. Soft crude oil import and refinery costs eased the production floor. The market eased to USD 1.378/KG before the Q2 spring commercial transport recovery.
Diesel Prices in India
Indian prices averaged USD 0.994/KG in Q1 2026, easing about 2.0% from Q4 2025. Post-harvest season transport moderation and soft crude oil import costs held the market near USD 0.994/KG.
Why did the price of Diesel change in Q1 2026 in India?
Post-harvest season commercial transport and agricultural moderation reduced urgency. Soft crude oil import costs eased the production floor. The market eased to USD 0.994/KG before the Q2 spring construction and transport recovery.
Quarterly Diesel Price Trends
Global Diesel prices firmed through Q3 and Q4 2025 on the commercial transport and construction season, corrected in Q1 2026 on post-winter moderation, then surged in Q2 2026. The average rose from USD 1.050/KG in Q2 2025 to USD 1.071/KG in Q3 and USD 1.092/KG in Q4, eased to USD 1.070/KG in Q1 2026, then surged to USD 1.134/KG in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 8.0% over the window. Crude oil price cycles and commercial transport, construction, and agricultural procurement seasonality drove the overall pattern.
| Quarter | Price (USD/KG) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 1.134 | +6.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 1.070 | -2.0% | ↓ Falling |
| Q4 2025 | 1.092 | +2.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 1.071 | +2.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 1.050 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Diesel Price in 2025?
Diesel prices firmed modestly through 2025 on consistent commercial transport and construction demand. The global average opened near USD 1.032/KG in Q1 2025 and closed at USD 1.092/KG in Q4, a full-year gain of about 5.8%. Crude oil price dynamics and commercial transport and construction procurement drove the quarterly pattern throughout the year.
Diesel Prices in the United States in 2025
US prices firmed from about USD 0.948/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.978/KG by Q4, a gain of 3.2%. Consistent commercial freight, construction equipment, and agricultural machinery demand maintained the upward trend.
Diesel Prices in China in 2025
Chinese prices firmed from roughly USD 0.882/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.912/KG by Q4, a gain of 3.4%. Growing commercial transport and construction demand drove the firming.
Diesel Prices in Germany in 2025
German prices firmed from about USD 1.362/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.406/KG by Q4, a gain of 3.2%. Consistent commercial freight, construction, and agricultural demand and firm crude import costs supported the market.
Diesel Prices in India in 2025
Indian prices firmed from roughly USD 0.980/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 1.014/KG by Q4, a gain of 3.5%. Growing commercial transport and construction demand drove consistent firming.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Diesel Price Intelligence
Expert Market Research tracks Diesel prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region. The team traces causation through crude oil market economics, commercial transport and construction sector procurement cycles, and regional refinery capacity and fuel taxation policy. Contact Expert Market Research today for Diesel pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
Commercial road transport of goods and passengers using compression ignition heavy goods vehicles, buses, and light commercial vehicles takes the largest share. Construction machinery including excavators and cranes, agricultural tractors and harvesting combines, rail traction, marine propulsion, off-grid power generation, and mining equipment also consume significant volumes globally.
The Q2 2026 average was USD 1.016/KG in the United States, USD 0.948/KG in China, USD 1.461/KG in Germany, and USD 1.054/KG in India. Germany remains the highest-priced market.
The global average rose from USD 1.070/KG in Q1 to about USD 1.134/KG in Q2, a gain of around 6.0%. Recovering commercial transport and construction demand and firmer crude oil costs drove the H1 recovery from the Q1 correction.
Post-winter commercial transport and construction moderation reduced buying urgency. Soft crude oil and refinery feedstock costs eased the production floor before the Q2 spring commercial transport and construction season recovery.
The global average is expected in the USD 1.14 to 1.27/KG range for H2 2026, with continued firming as crude oil costs stay elevated and commercial transport, construction, and agricultural diesel demand grows globally.
Germany sits highest on crude import, refinery, and fuel taxation costs, while the United States and India reflect market pricing closer to crude oil economics, and China maintains domestically managed pricing.
This report is updated monthly. For real-time pricing intelligence, contact the Expert Market Research team directly.
Prices respond mainly to crude oil market prices, OPEC production policy, refinery crack spreads, commercial freight volume cycles, and agricultural season demand. Crude oil spot prices and commercial freight activity data are key upstream signals.
Major refining centres in the United States, China, Russia, South Korea, India, and Europe produce the largest diesel volumes. Any crude oil price change ripples across global diesel markets within days.
Buyers can use quarterly trends and forecasts to time commercial transport and construction fleet fuel contracts around crude oil cycles, build cover when crude price signals rise, and monitor OPEC production policy and freight volume data as primary signals.
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