Ethylene Oxide Price Trend Report and Forecast 2026-2027

Ethylene Oxide Price Index: January 2026 Global Snapshot

The table below captures ethylene oxide prices across major producing and importing nations as of January 2026, based on prevailing FOB and CIF market assessments. Feedstock dynamics, derivative demand across mono ethylene glycol, surfactants, and ethanolamines, and regional supply balances all shaped where prices landed at the start of the year.

Ethylene Oxide Price Trend: February 2026 Regional Overview

By February 2026, the gap between regions had widened considerably. North America posted an 11.2% month-on-month jump on a FOB USGC basis, the direct result of cracker disruptions that had been tightening feedstock availability since mid-December. Europe continued moving in the right direction with a 4.3% gain, supported by downstream restocking and firmer feedstock costs. Northeast Asia ran in the opposite direction, slipping another 1.1% month-on-month as Chinese domestic oversupply kept a ceiling on FOB offers with no meaningful demand recovery to offset it.

Ethylene Oxide Price Trend: 2025 Full Year Historical Data

The quarterly price data below covers major ethylene oxide markets through 2025. The year showed a clear H1 to H2 split in most regions, with stable or modestly positive first-half conditions giving way to softening or volatility in H2 as Chinese capacity additions and weaker downstream demand reset the market tone. Procurement teams can use this data to benchmark contract settlements and assess how regional price divergence evolved across the year.

Global Ethylene Oxide Market Overview

The global ethylene oxide market reached USD 53.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 77.41 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 3.99% through the forecast period. Demand is driven not by ethylene oxide itself but by what it becomes downstream: mono ethylene glycol for polyester and PET resin, surfactants for detergents and personal care, ethanolamines for agricultural and cleaning chemicals, and sterilizing agents for the medical device industry. Each of those end markets has its own demand cycle, which is part of why ethylene oxide pricing can move differently across regions running on the same feedstock.

Chemically, ethylene oxide is a colorless, flammable, highly reactive gas produced by the catalytic oxidation of ethylene over a silver catalyst, typically at temperatures between 200 and 300 degrees Celsius and pressures of 10 to 20 bar. That process makes it a direct ethylene derivative, which means its price moves closely with ethylene, and ethylene moves with naphtha and natural gas. The chain from crude oil and gas to finished ethylene oxide price is short, and disruptions at any point in it pass through quickly.

Ethylene oxide is classified under HS Code 291010 and CAS No. 75-21-8. It trades primarily in tank or cylinder packaging at contract sizes of 100 to 150 MT. Major global suppliers include BASF, Dow Chemical, Huntsman International, Shell Chemical, and LyondellBasell.

Regional Ethylene Oxide Price Analysis

North America

In Q4 2025, the US ethylene oxide price averaged approximately USD 1,287.33/MT in Q4 2025, a 6.87% decline from the Q3 average of roughly USD 1,763/MT. For most of the quarter, the market was well-supplied and buyers were not in a hurry. Plant operating rates were high, inventories were balanced, and downstream procurement from polyester and antifreeze segments was steady but not aggressive enough to absorb supply and push prices higher.

December changed the picture, at least briefly. An unplanned cracker outage on the Gulf Coast removed ethylene from the market mid-month, tightening feedstock availability and lifting spot prices in a short window. A concurrent Henry Hub natural gas price spike pushed production costs higher at the same time. Sellers moved offers up, and export parcel availability tightened. The rally did not sustain through month-end because inventory levels were adequate and downstream buyers had no pressing reason to chase prompt cargoes. But that December disruption seeded the more meaningful recovery that played out in January and February 2026.

Q3 2025 and H2 2025 Trajectory

Q3 2025 was the strongest quarter of the year for US ethylene oxide prices, averaging approximately USD 1,763/MT, a 5.0% gain from Q2. Export activity held FOB offers firm, plant utilization was high, and mono ethylene glycol procurement provided a steady demand floor. PTMEG demand was softer, which created some mixed signals on the downstream side, but it was not enough to offset the firmness from MEG buying. As H2 progressed and the December cracker disruption aside, feedstock costs fell and supply remained stable through most of the period, pulling the quarterly average back down and setting up Q4's weaker reading.

H1 2025 and Q1 2025

The US market opened 2025 steadily. Feedstock availability was consistent, supply and demand were broadly balanced, and downstream sectors including automotive, textiles, and detergents were maintaining normal procurement rates. MEG and PTMEG buying provided mild price support in January. February was where things shifted: ethylene feedstock prices started declining, and that cost reduction passed through to ethylene oxide offers quickly. By March, prices were softer across the board, not because demand had collapsed but because the cost basis had moved lower and sellers adjusted accordingly.

Q2 2025 stabilized around USD 912/MT on an FOB US Gulf basis, a marginal 0.5% gain on the quarter. Pharmaceutical and cleaning chemical demand provided a consistent demand base, and contract trades settled at levels consistent with the prior quarter. There were no significant supply events in Q2, and the market reflected that in its stability.

Asia Pacific

In Q4 2025, Japan's ethylene oxide price fell 3.87% quarter-on-quarter, averaging approximately USD 869.67/MT on a CIF import-cost basis. The market was consistently oversupplied through the quarter. Cracker output ran at high rates domestically, import flows remained active, and the combination kept available volumes above what downstream buyers needed to source on prompt terms. PET converters and surfactant manufacturers were deferring purchases where they could, which removed the demand urgency that might otherwise have cleared the surplus.

Naphtha costs, linked to Brent crude, and freight costs applied some upward pressure to producer margins through the quarter. That partial cost support is why the decline was 3.87% rather than sharper. But it was not enough to reverse the fundamental direction, which was driven by supply exceeding offtake.

H2 2025 China and Q2 2025 Asia

China was the most important market story in Asia Pacific through H2 2025, and the direction was consistently bearish. Several new production units came online during the period, adding materially to domestic availability at a time when downstream demand from construction-linked chemicals, surfactants, and polyester chains was showing little recovery. Crackers ran at high operating rates, inventories stayed comfortable, and buyers had no reason to rush procurement. The result was a market that drifted lower through the second half, ending at USD 813/MT FOB in January 2026.

In Q2 2025, before the new capacity wave hit, Chinese domestic spot prices were holding around USD 913/MT FD in May. The step-change in availability that came with H2 capacity additions is what explains the gap between that mid-year level and where the market ended up by year-end. It was not a demand-driven selloff. It was a supply-driven repricing.

Europe

In Q4 2025, France's ethylene oxide price averaged approximately USD 955/MT, marking a 4.18% decline from Q3. The Lavera facility ran continuously through the quarter with no significant outages, pipeline flows were smooth, and import inflows from Antwerp and Rotterdam added to available supply at key depot locations. With inventory positions well-stocked heading into the quarter, downstream buyers in the detergent and PET segments had no incentive to place early orders or pay above the prevailing market.

Feedstock ethylene and natural gas costs both fell through the period, which reduced the production cost floor and gave sellers less justification to hold prices firm. The combination of ample supply and lower production costs meant the market repriced lower, but in an orderly way rather than through a demand collapse. Buyers that needed material could source it without difficulty, and sellers moved to competitive pricing to maintain volume.

Q3 2025 and H1 2025 - Europe

Q3 2025 had been firmer. France's average came in at approximately USD 996.67/MT FD Marseille, up 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, as higher feedstock ethylene and naphtha costs pushed production expenses up and sellers passed those through. September brought some relief on the feedstock side, which capped how high the Q3 average could go and set the stage for Q4's reversal.

H1 2025 in Europe was characterized by steady feedstock-driven price softness. Ethylene costs declined through most of the first half, and ethylene oxide producers adjusted offers accordingly. Germany had a sharper disruption in March when port congestion at Hamburg and Bremerhaven interrupted logistics flows, creating short-term tightness that briefly pushed delivered costs higher before normalizing. Q2 averaged a 1.2% decline on an FD basis, settling near USD 985/MT by end of June.

Middle East and Africa

In Q4 2025, Saudi Arabia's ethylene oxide price fell 3.4% to an average of approximately USD 1,222.67/MT FOB Al Jubail. The quarter was straightforward from a supply perspective. Cracker utilization at Aramco and SABIC operations was consistent after any turnaround work had been completed in the prior period, and subsidized ethane feedstock kept production costs well below what producers in naphtha-based regions were carrying. That cost advantage allowed Saudi producers to offer competitively without margin pressure, and with domestic demand well-covered, there was limited need to seek premium export pricing.

Export buying from Asia was present but not aggressive. Downstream procurement globally was in the cautious mode that characterized most of Q4 2025, and spot activity in December was thin. Prices held neutral rather than declining sharply, reflecting the stable operating environment rather than any demand-driven support.

Q3 2025 MEA

Q3 2025 had been marginally firmer for Saudi Arabia, with the average price reaching USD 1,265.67/MT, a 2.15% quarter-on-quarter gain. Ethylene and naphtha costs were elevated regionally, which raised production expenses for naphtha-based producers and gave ethane-advantaged Saudi sellers some room to lift FOB offers without pricing themselves out of markets. Export demand from Asia was consistent, port operations were uninterrupted, and buyers were not yet in the aggressive deferral mode that defined Q4. The range-bound result reflected that balanced state: enough demand to keep inventories moving, not enough to drive a meaningful rally.

Key Factors Influencing the Ethylene Oxide Price Trend

Ethylene oxide pricing is primarily a feedstock cost story, but several other forces interact with that base driver in ways that can amplify or dampen its effect depending on the region and the quarter.

• Ethylene Feedstock Costs: Ethylene is the direct raw material for ethylene oxide production and the single most important price input. Naphtha and natural gas prices drive ethylene costs, which in turn drive producer margins and selling offers. When ethylene moves, ethylene oxide almost always follows, and the lag is short because the production process is continuous rather than batch-based.
• Natural Gas and Energy Costs: Natural gas is both a feedstock alternative and a utility input in steam cracker-integrated ethylene oxide plants. Henry Hub spikes in the US and European gas price movements directly raise production costs for producers in those regions. The December 2025 Gulf Coast episode, where a cracker outage coincided with a Henry Hub spike, illustrated how quickly the two factors can compound.
• Downstream Derivative Demand: MEG for polyester and PET production is the largest single demand driver. Surfactants, ethanolamines for agricultural and personal care applications, glycol ethers for coatings and solvents, and medical sterilization applications all add demand volume. When any one of these segments slows, as PET converters and surfactant manufacturers did in Japan and China through Q4 2025, the effect on spot pricing is direct and relatively fast.
• Plant Outages and Operating Rates: An unplanned cracker outage, as seen in the US Gulf Coast in December 2025, can move prices within days by removing ethylene availability from an already-tight feedstock corridor. High plant operating rates in China have had the opposite effect, sustaining oversupply and keeping FOB prices depressed even when downstream demand has shown modest recovery signals.
• Chinese Capacity Expansion: The commissioning of multiple new production units in China through H2 2025 fundamentally shifted the domestic supply-demand balance. The effect was not just local. It depressed Chinese FOB export prices and created competitive pressure for suppliers across regional Asian markets and beyond. This is a structural change, not a cyclical one, and its influence on Northeast Asian pricing will persist into 2026.
• Trade Policy and Freight Costs: Port congestion at Hamburg and Bremerhaven disrupted European delivered cost structures in early 2025. Panama Canal transit delays added cost to trans-Pacific routing. Transpacific freight rate movements influenced CIF competitiveness for Asian buyers comparing US and Middle Eastern origins. None of these are primary price drivers, but they regularly determine which direction marginal tonnes flow and at what delivered cost.

Ethylene Oxide Price Forecast: Near-Term Outlook for 2026

The three major regions are on very different trajectories heading into 2026, and those differences are likely to persist for at least the first half of the year.

North America is the most positive setup. The February 2026 price index was already up 11.2% month-on-month, carrying the momentum from December's cracker disruptions into the new year. Feedstock tightening is ongoing, export demand is recovering, and any additional unplanned outages would add further upside. The risk to the bull case is a rapid normalization of cracker operations and a return of ample ethylene supply before downstream demand has strengthened enough to sustain higher prices independently.

Europe is in a more moderate recovery. The 4.3% month-on-month gain in February 2026 reflects genuine downstream restocking from MEG and personal care sector buyers, combined with firmer feedstock ethylene costs. That combination can sustain a moderate upward trend if infrastructure and specialty chemical procurement picks up through Q1 2026. The ceiling is not high given that the market was well-supplied through most of 2025, and any feedstock cost relief would quickly cap how far European offers can move.

Northeast Asia remains the weakest market. The February 2026 reading of minus 1.1% month-on-month confirmed that the Chinese oversupply story has not changed. Domestic capacity is ample, downstream demand recovery is slow, and FOB export prices reflect that reality. The assessment that Asian prices will stay under pressure from ample supply is consistent with the structural picture. A meaningful recovery would require either a significant reduction in Chinese operating rates, which seems unlikely absent a policy intervention, or a demand surge from construction or polyester sectors that the current economic environment does not support.

Recent Ethylene Oxide Industry Developments

• June 2025: Sonata Scientific launched the Helios MP500, a standalone ductless system for reducing fugitive ethylene oxide emissions at medical device sterilization plants. The unit processes air at 500 cubic feet per minute and achieves destruction and removal efficiency above 99%, addressing tightening regulatory compliance requirements for EO sterilization facilities across the US and Europe.
• June 2024: GAIL (India) Limited announced a USD 7.2 billion investment to construct a 1.5 million tonnes per annum ethane cracker and downstream derivative complex at Ashta, Madhya Pradesh. The project is designed to produce HDPE, LLDPE, mono ethylene glycol, and propylene, significantly expanding India's domestic petrochemical production capacity.
• May 2024: INEOS completed the acquisition of LyondellBasell's Ethylene Oxide and Derivatives business, including production facilities at Bayport, Texas. The transaction expanded INEOS's EO and derivatives platform and secured additional land for future capacity additions at the site.
• May 2024: Larsen and Toubro dispatched two of the world's heaviest ethylene oxide reactors to BASF for a project in China. Each reactor weighed 1,136 MT and was manufactured at L&T's Heavy Engineering Complex in Gujarat using Industry 4.0 fabrication technology. The reactors convert ethylene into ethylene oxide as a precursor for downstream petrochemical production chains.