Glutinous Paddy Rice Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

China paid the most for glutinous paddy rice in Q3 2026: USD 430/MT, down 0.9% from USD 434/MT in Q2. High labor costs and steady demand from rice mills keep Chinese prices above the other three markets. Worldwide, the average fell 1.3% to USD 370/MT from USD 375/MT, mostly because larger stocks of paddy and softer demand from rice mills led farmers to lower prices in all four markets. What about Q4 2026? We expect a global average somewhere in the USD 355-385/MT range, with harvest size, rainfall, fertilizer and labor costs, stocks and demand from rice mills doing most of the work.

Glutinous paddy rice is unmilled sticky rice, harvested with its husk still on. It has a high content of amylopectin starch, so it turns sticky when cooked, and mills buy it to make glutinous rice for desserts, snacks and rice flour. Prices in this report refer to glutinous paddy rice at farm gate or mill gate and are quoted per metric ton. They depend on harvest size, weather, fertilizer and labor costs, stocks and demand from rice mills.

Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Myanmar are the main producers. Farmers plant the crop in the wet season, and the harvest comes in the final months of the year. Mills buy paddy and mill it into glutinous rice, so mill demand and stocks of rice set how firmly farmers hold prices.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Price Forecast for 2026

Prices should ease slightly through the rest of 2026. Stocks of paddy are larger and demand from rice mills is softer, but steady demand from rice mills limits the size of the decline. For reference, the Q3 2026 global average of USD 370/MT compares with USD 365/MT a year earlier, an increase of 1.4%.

Risks to the Q4 outlook lean to the downside. What could push prices higher? Poor rainfall, higher fertilizer or labor costs or stronger demand from rice mills would lift prices. What could pull them lower? Larger harvests, bigger stocks or weaker demand from rice mills would lower prices.

For the Quarter Ending September 2026

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices Q3 2026:

• Laos: USD 320/MT
• Vietnam: USD 350/MT
• Thailand: USD 380/MT
• China: USD 430/MT

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Laos

Prices in Laos softened 1.5% in Q3 2026 to USD 320/MT, compared with USD 325/MT in Q2. Lao prices fell as the stocks of paddy increased. The current level is 1.6% above the Q3 2025 average of USD 315/MT. Laos finished Q3 2026 13.5% below the four-market average of USD 370/MT.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q3 2026 in Laos?

Laos declined. Stocks of paddy increased, farmers lowered prices, and demand from rice mills was soft. Year to date, Laos is 0.6% higher than the Q4 2025 level of USD 318/MT, while the global average is 0.5% higher. On the global measure the average was 1.3% lower over the quarter. Laos moved 1.5% quarter on quarter.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Vietnam

Vietnam recorded a 1.4% decline in Q3 2026, with the average falling to USD 350/MT from USD 355/MT in Q2. Vietnamese prices fell as the stocks of paddy increased. A year earlier, in Q3 2025, the average stood at USD 345/MT, which makes the current price 1.4% higher. The four markets averaged USD 370/MT in the quarter, so the price in Vietnam was 5.4% lower.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q3 2026 in Vietnam?

Vietnam declined. Stocks of paddy increased, farmers lowered offers, and demand from rice mills was soft. Over the first nine months of 2026 the price in Vietnam has risen by 0.3%, which compares with a 0.5% gain in the global average. For comparison, the global average moved 1.3% lower over the same quarter.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Thailand

The Q3 2026 average for Thailand stood at USD 380/MT, a decrease of 1.3% on the USD 385/MT recorded in Q2. Thai prices fell as the stocks of paddy increased. Taking Q3 2025 as the base, at USD 376/MT, the latest quarter is 1.1% higher. In comparison with the average of USD 370/MT across the four markets, the price in Thailand was 2.7% higher.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q3 2026 in Thailand?

Thailand declined. Stocks of paddy increased, farmers lowered prices, and demand from rice mills was soft. Since the end of 2025, the price in Thailand has risen 0.3%, from USD 379/MT to USD 380/MT, while the global average has risen 0.5%. The global average shifted 1.3% lower in the same quarter. This represents a quarter-on-quarter change of 1.3% for Thailand.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in China

China registered a 0.9% decrease in Q3 2026, taking the average to USD 430/MT from USD 434/MT in Q2. Chinese prices eased as the stocks of paddy increased. Against the USD 425/MT recorded in Q3 2025, the current average represents a 1.2% increase. China ended the quarter 16.2% above the group average of USD 370/MT.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q3 2026 in China?

China eased. Stocks of paddy increased, farmers lowered prices, and demand from rice mills was soft. The cumulative 2026 change for China is a 0.5% increase, from USD 428/MT to USD 430/MT, while the global average shows a 0.5% gain over the same period. Across the four markets the average was 1.3% lower on the quarter.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices Q2 2026:

• Laos: USD 325/MT
• Vietnam: USD 355/MT
• Thailand: USD 385/MT
• China: USD 434/MT

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Laos

Laos registered a 1.2% increase in Q2 2026, taking the average to USD 325/MT from USD 321/MT in Q1. Lao prices rose as the demand from rice mills strengthened. In Q2 2025 the average was USD 311/MT, so the market is 4.5% higher on a yearly basis. Relative to the four-market average of USD 375/MT, Laos traded 13.3% below in Q2 2026.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q2 2026 in Laos?

Laos rose. Demand from rice mills strengthened, labor costs went up, and farmers lifted prices. This followed a 0.9% gain in Q1 and left Laos 4.5% above its Q2 2025 average of USD 311/MT. The price then partly reversed in Q3, to USD 320/MT. Across the four markets the average was 1.1% higher on the quarter.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Vietnam

Vietnam firmed 1.1% to USD 355/MT in Q2 2026, from USD 351/MT in Q1. Vietnamese prices rose as the demand from rice mills strengthened. This represents a 4.4% increase on the USD 340/MT recorded in Q2 2025. This places Vietnam 5.3% below the four-market average of USD 375/MT for Q2 2026.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q2 2026 in Vietnam?

Vietnam rose. Demand from rice mills strengthened, labor costs went up, and farmers lifted offers. After a 0.6% gain in Q1, the quarter closed 4.4% above the USD 340/MT recorded in Q2 2025. Part of the move was reversed in Q3, leaving the price at USD 350/MT. On the global measure the average was 1.1% higher over the quarter.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Thailand

In Q2 2026, the average price in Thailand rose 1.0% to USD 385/MT, compared with USD 381/MT in Q1. Thai prices rose as the demand from rice mills strengthened. The year-on-year change is a 3.8% increase, from USD 371/MT in Q2 2025. Against the four-market average of USD 375/MT, Thailand stood 2.7% above in the quarter.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q2 2026 in Thailand?

Thailand rose. Demand from rice mills strengthened, labor costs went up, and farmers lifted prices. This came on top of a 0.5% gain in Q1, and the average ended 3.8% above its level of a year earlier, when it stood at USD 371/MT. Q3 reversed some of the change, with the price at USD 380/MT.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in China

China's average moved up 0.7% in Q2 2026, to USD 434/MT from USD 431/MT in Q1. Chinese prices rose as the demand from rice mills strengthened. The Q2 2026 average is 3.3% above the USD 420/MT recorded in Q2 2025. China finished Q2 2026 15.7% above the four-market average of USD 375/MT.

Why did the price of Glutinous Paddy Rice change in Q2 2026 in China?

China rose. Demand from rice mills strengthened, labor costs went up, and farmers lifted prices. Q1 had brought a 0.7% gain, and by the end of Q2 the price was 3.3% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 420/MT. The price then partly reversed in Q3, to USD 430/MT. The global average shifted 1.1% higher in the same quarter.

Quarterly Glutinous Paddy Rice Price Trends

Glutinous Paddy Rice prices rose through 2025 and the first half of 2026 before easing in the third quarter in all four markets. The global average moved from USD 356/MT in Q1 2025 to 360 in Q2, 365 in Q3 and 368 in Q4, then 371 in Q1 2026, 375 in Q2 and 370 in Q3, a net gain of roughly 3.9% across the window. Higher fertilizer and labor costs and steady demand from rice mills lifted prices for five quarters, and stocks of paddy caused a decline in the third quarter.

What was Glutinous Paddy Rice Price in 2025?

2025 was a year of gradual increases for glutinous paddy rice, with prices rising in each quarter in all four markets. Starting near USD 356/MT in Q1, the global average finished the year at 368 in Q4, a gain of about 3.4%. Higher fertilizer and labor costs and steady demand from rice mills supported farmers throughout the year.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Laos in 2025

In Laos, prices moved from about USD 306/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 318/MT by Q4, up roughly 3.9%. Lao prices rose gradually as the labor costs and demand from rice mills increased. At USD 320/MT in Q3 2026, Laos stands 0.6% above its Q4 2025 close. The same regional pattern is carried into the quarterly analysis above, where the quarter-by-quarter figures can be traced.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Vietnam in 2025

In Vietnam, prices moved from about USD 335/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 349/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.2%. Vietnamese prices rose gradually as the labor costs and demand from rice mills increased. The Q4 2025 close of USD 349/MT compares with USD 350/MT in Q3 2026, a 0.3% increase. The quarterly sections above show how the annual average developed over the year.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in Thailand in 2025

In Thailand, prices moved from about USD 368/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 379/MT by Q4, up roughly 3.0%. Thai prices rose gradually as the labor costs and demand from rice mills increased. Relative to the end of 2025, the price in Thailand is 0.3% higher at USD 380/MT. The quarterly breakdown above allows each stage of that path to be traced.

Glutinous Paddy Rice Prices in China in 2025

In China, prices moved from about USD 416/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 428/MT by Q4, up roughly 2.9%. Chinese prices rose gradually as the labor costs and demand from rice mills increased. By Q3 2026 the average for China had reached USD 430/MT, 0.5% above the Q4 2025 close. The same regional pattern is carried into the quarterly analysis above, where the quarter-by-quarter figures can be traced.

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We keep a continuous eye on glutinous paddy rice prices wherever it is produced or consumed at scale, tracing causation through harvest size, weather, fertilizer and labor costs, stocks and demand from rice mills. Our forecasts draw on production data, trade flows, input cost trends and demand indicators across all reporting regions, so subscribers see why a price moved and not just that it did. Need pricing data, bespoke market analysis, or procurement advisory? Reach out to our team.