1-Decene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Germany’s synthetic lubricants sector kept buying steadily through Q2 2026, and that kept 1-Decene the priciest of the four markets tracked here: USD 1,476/MT, up 1.9% from USD 1,449 in Q1. Prices climbed worldwide too, up 2.0% to USD 1,230/MT from USD 1,206, as recovering PAO and surfactant demand soaked up the extra supply released by new US capacity. As for H2 2026, the USD 1,215-1,260/MT range looks like a reasonable global target, with synthetic lubricant and detergent alcohol demand providing support even as ample feedstock ethylene keeps a lid on things.

1-Decene is a linear alpha olefin with ten carbon atoms, made almost exclusively by oligomerizing ethylene through the Shell Higher Olefin Process or similar on-purpose technologies. Its single biggest use, by far, is as the monomer feedstock for polyalphaolefin, a synthetic base oil prized for staying stable and flowing well at low temperatures in automotive and industrial lubricants. Beyond that, it feeds detergent alcohols, surfactants, and specialty plasticizers, plus a small comonomer role in select polyethylene grades. Ethylene feedstock costs, how busy PAO producers are running, and the pace of new on-purpose capacity additions all shape where the price lands.

1-Decene Price Forecast for 2026

The 1-Decene market looks comfortably supplied through H2 2026, now that new US linear alpha olefin capacity finished ramping up over 2025. Recovering polyalphaolefin demand from automotive and industrial lubricants has soaked up a meaningful chunk of the extra volume. Detergent alcohol and surfactant demand, meanwhile, has stayed roughly flat.

An ethylene feedstock spike, or an unplanned outage at a major oligomerization unit, would be the clearest path to tighter-than-expected supply. On the flip side: softer automotive production, or a slower PAO demand recovery, would leave the market oversupplied and pull prices toward the bottom of the forecast range.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

1-Decene Prices Q2 2026: 

• United States: USD 869/MT
• China: USD 1,206/MT
• Japan: USD 1,417/MT
• Germany: USD 1,476/MT

1-Decene Prices in United States

US 1-Decene climbed off its Q1 2026 low to USD 869/MT in Q2, up 1.6% from USD 855. Polyalphaolefin producers kept buying steadily, ethylene feedstock costs firmed a touch, and ample domestic capacity still kept the region the cheapest of the four tracked markets.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q2 2026 in United States?

The US increase was modest for a reason: new Gulf Coast capacity is still working through the market, keeping supply comfortable even as ethylene costs ticked up and PAO producers kept buying at their usual pace.

1-Decene Prices in China

USD 1,206/MT. That’s China’s Q2 number, up 1.4% from USD 1,189 in Q1. Domestic PAO and surfactant producers kept buying at a steady pace, and imported cargoes from the Middle East and US were easy to come by.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q2 2026 in China?

China didn’t need much of a push this quarter. Demand held steady, imports stayed easy to source on competitive terms, and the modest gain reflects ordinary lubricant production activity rather than any real tightness.

1-Decene Prices in Japan

A planned maintenance turnaround at a major regional oligomerization unit tightened Japanese supply through Q2, pushing prices up 1.9% to USD 1,417/MT from USD 1,391 in Q1. Domestic PAO production held steady the whole time.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

A single planned maintenance turnaround explains most of Japan’s move. It tightened spot cargo availability just enough to lift prices, even with domestic PAO producers running at their usual steady operating rates.

1-Decene Prices in Germany

Germany stayed the priciest market in the group: 1-Decene averaged USD 1,476/MT in Q2, up 1.9% from USD 1,449 in Q1. Firming polyalphaolefin demand from Europe’s automotive lubricants sector, paired with tight regional supply, kept the premium in place.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

Regional oligomerization capacity has stayed fully committed quarter after quarter, and that’s the real reason Germany keeps pricing at the top of this group. This time a genuine firming in automotive lubricant demand added a bit more pull on top of the usual tight spot market.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

1-Decene Prices Q1 2026: 

• United States: USD 855/MT
• China: USD 1,189/MT
• Japan: USD 1,391/MT
• Germany: USD 1,449/MT

1-Decene Prices in United States

US prices edged up 1.5% in Q1 2026, to USD 855/MT from USD 842 in Q4. A modest ethylene feedstock cost increase, plus steadier PAO producer offtake, arrested three straight quarters of decline.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Three straight quarters of decline finally found a floor. Ethylene costs firmed a touch, PAO producers resumed steadier buying as winter destocking wound down, and the new capacity that had been weighing on the market got absorbed well enough to stop the slide.

1-Decene Prices in China

Chinese prices rose 2.9% in Q1 2026, to USD 1,189/MT from USD 1,155, as buyers moved early to lock in volume before the holiday slowdown and domestic PAO demand firmed alongside it.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q1 2026 in China?

Pre-holiday buying explains most of this one. PAO and surfactant producers stocked up before the Lunar New Year shutdown, and that alone tightened near-term availability enough to lift prices, even as underlying lubricant demand only firmed modestly.

1-Decene Prices in Japan

Japanese prices rose 2.4% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,391/MT from USD 1,358 in Q4, as domestic PAO production firmed and ethylene costs ticked up modestly.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q1 2026 in Japan?

Japan’s gain came from ordinary channels: higher domestic PAO operating rates, a modest ethylene cost increase, and steady automotive lubricant demand. Nothing here suggests anything beyond normal quarterly variation.

1-Decene Prices in Germany

Germany again posted the highest price among tracked markets: Q1 2026 averaged USD 1,449/MT, up 2.9% from USD 1,408 in Q4 2025. A recovering European automotive sector and firm PAO demand both played a part.

Why did the price of 1-Decene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

The automotive recovery that’s been building across Europe kept feeding through to PAO demand this quarter, and with regional oligomerization capacity already fully committed, there wasn’t much room to absorb it without prices moving.

Quarterly 1-Decene Price Trends

1-Decene had an uneven 2025. It eased early in the year, as new US linear alpha olefin capacity weighed on the market, then firmed once recovering PAO lubricant demand absorbed the extra supply. The global average slipped from USD 1,150/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,140 in Q2, then climbed to USD 1,160 in Q3, USD 1,178 in Q4, USD 1,206 in Q1 2026, and USD 1,230 in Q2 2026, a net gain of about 7.0% across the window. Recovering synthetic lubricant demand and steady detergent alcohol offtake explain the renewed climb.

What was 1-Decene Price in 2025?

2025 was a mixed year for 1-Decene. New US capacity initially weighed on the market before recovering PAO demand steadied things later on. Globally, the average moved from about USD 1,150/MT in Q1 to USD 1,178 by Q4, a modest 2.4% gain that hides a much sharper divergence across individual regions. Recovering synthetic lubricant demand and steady detergent alcohol offtake drove the late-year firming.

1-Decene Prices in United States in 2025

US prices actually fell over the year, from about USD 895/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 842 by Q4, down roughly 5.9%. New Gulf Coast capacity additions simply outran demand growth for most of the year.

1-Decene Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices firmed from roughly USD 1,122/MT in Q1 to USD 1,155 by Q4, up 2.9%, as steady domestic PAO and surfactant demand absorbed both imported and domestic volumes.

1-Decene Prices in Japan in 2025

Japanese prices barely moved: easing from about USD 1,365/MT in Q1 to USD 1,358 by Q4, down 0.5%. Broadly stable domestic PAO production kept the market largely rangebound all year.

1-Decene Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices firmed from about USD 1,330/MT in Q1 to USD 1,408 by Q4, up 5.9%, as a recovering European automotive sector and firm polyalphaolefin demand drove the climb.

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Our analysts follow 1-Decene prices around the clock, from major producers to the biggest buyers, tracing the causation through ethylene feedstock economics, polyalphaolefin and detergent alcohol demand cycles, and the pace of new on-purpose alpha olefin capacity additions. Expert Market Research is the place to go for pricing data, custom market analysis, and procurement strategy support.